THE NEXT ELECTION.
THE Daily News published on Tuesday an excessively long and detailed letter upon the next election, which will, we trust, attract the attention of Liberals throughout the country. It is rather dreary and depressing reading,—but then, liveliness is not the first quality in manuals of arith- metic. The writer, evidently an expert, after setting aside Ireland, where the Liberal majority of 17 Members cannot be fully depended upon, gives it as his opinion that at the next election it will be absolutely necessary for the Liberals, if they are to return to power, to carry a great many counties which they have hitherto abandoned to the enemy. The numbers in Great Britain are:—
Tories. Liberals.
County Members ... 168 ... 50 University Members ... 5 2 Borough Members ... 112 180
315 232
The Speaker, who was elected as a Liberal, but who in the Chair is of no politics, is omitted, and the total result shows that the Tories have a majority in this Island of 83. If, therefore, the Liberals intend to conquer, they must either carry forty-two Tory borough seats, or they must boldly and decisively attack the counties. In order indeed to secure a working majority without constant dependence on Irish Members, they must carry at least sixty Tory boroughs, a result which, unless the Government sustains some extra- ordinary and most regrettable disaster, is not to be anticipated. Indeed, "An Old Liberal" does not believe, after careful cal- culation, that the Liberals can hope for more than 23 borough seats, which, though counting 46 in a division, would still leave them defeated by what, in that case, would be a most compact majority of 37. We do not ourselves quite accept this last calculation, believing, and believing with reluctance, that the swing of the democratic pen dulum will, as in 1874, be unexpectedly violent and irre- sistible. The people are getting convinced, not unreasonably, but not through reason, that the long-continued depression in prosperity is due to Government, and may easily therefore vote in a temper which, except in the counties, will extinguish the Tory party. It is best. however, though we state our own impression, not to trust impressions in calculation, and if An Old Liberal" is right, no less than nineteen county seats must be won before the Liberals can reckon on any majority at all, even one sufficient to secure a coalition Government.
" An Old Liberal " thinks they may be secured ; he points out that in 1874 the Tories gained from us no less than twenty-six county seats held at the previous election by Liberals, namely :—" Cornwall East, Derbyshire East, Gloucestershire West, Hats, Lincolnshire Mid, Lincolnshire North, Middlesex, Staffordshire North, Surrey East, Sussex East, Wilts North, Wilts South, Worcestershire East, Yorkshire West Riding (southern division), and in South Essex two seats—total 16; in Wales—Cardiganshire, Car- marthenshire, and Carnarvonshire, one seat each,—total, 3 ; and in Scotland—Ayrshire North, Ayrshire South, Berwick-
shire, Lancashire South, Perthshire, Roxburghshire, and ( Stirlingshire, one seat each, total 7 ; aggregate total, 26."
Every one of these seats ought to be regained, and a very great number more, which have been lost either by very narrow majorities, or through apathy, or in a condition of the Register much less favourable to Liberal effort.. There are, moreover, grounds of hope in the extent to which dis- gust with the policy of this Government has extended into the counties, in the neglect of the farmers' requests by the Administration, and in the sense of distress which is felt by the agricultural interest, even more than by any of the urban interests of the kingdom. " An Old Liberal," therefore, earnestly urges the Liberal country gentlemen to come forward once more to fight the counties, if not the hopeless divisions, then at least those divisions in which there are many towns, or in which, from any other cause, there is a reasonable prospect of success. The balance of power is in their hands far more than on any previous occasion, and they must not this time trust the victory of their principles entirely to the boroughs, but must exert themselves as eagerly as if there were none but county constituencies represented in Parliament. If they will not, if they are afraid of spending money, or are at heart re- luctant to support Liberals, then they will be saddled with this Government for another seven years, and will, probably, find at the end of that period that the mischief, as far as national prosperity is concerned, is irremediable, and that Radical sentiment has acquired a volume and consistency which will carry all before it.
We need not say we entirely agree in this advice to the Liberal country gentlemen, who have been far too negligent and far too willing to make compacts under which the Tories carried in 1874 no less than eighty-two unopposed county seats ; but we desire to add a word to it. Throughout " An Old Liberal's " letter, able as it is, and carefully as it ought to be considered, there is a little too much of the spirit of the old tactician, who relies on registration and family influences and readiness to spend money, and all the rest of the old and, in its way, very useful machinery. It is necessary, if the posi- tion he describes really exists and the account is correct, and if no strong wave of feeling passes over the boroughs, that an appeal of a much broader kind should be made to the county electors. We would ask the leaders of the Liberal party to consider whether it is not time that this should be made, whether they should not definitely and formally include certain county reforms in their programme, such as a com- pulsory Agricultural Holdings Act ; an Act declaring the tenant owner of all ground-game ; a definite scheme for County Councils, with the full power of Municipal Councils ; and a thorough and careful revision of the system of local taxation, with the object of lightening not its amount, but its incidence, as the incidence of the State taxation has been lightened. These are the objects which all county electors desire, which they have almost ceased to hope for, and which the Liberals can, in full adhesion to their own principles, grant, if only they cordially desire to do it. They have neglected the Counties long enough, and it is now time to come forward not with promises, but with a definite pro- gramme, which farmers and all other county electors can study and criticise and understand. It is vain to say such a programme will have no effect. Every act of justice has its effect, and the county electors are just as anxious to remove their especial grievances as ever the borough electors were. They not only want something for themselves, but they want to feel that if Liberals come into power, they will not be over- looked and despised merely because they do not happen to live in smoky towns. Devonshire, so powerful under a Tory administration, wants to know, to feel certain, that when Liberals succeed she shall not be less regarded than any brand- new village of factories which, because of its numerous work- men, thinks itself a city.
And we may go one step further. We are not sure "An Old Liberal" is wholly right in his exclusive appeal to the country gentry, but believe it is full time for the Liberals to settle decidedly their relation to the most serious question of all, the appearance of tenant-farmers as candidates for seats in Parliament. It is quite upon the cards that the farmers, who, if they have another bad harvest, will be at their last gasp with apprehension and distress may take the law into their own hands, as, but that they were awed by the landlords, they would have done forty-seven years ago, and insist upon securing the second seat for their own nominees. That is a perfectly just claim, and it is one which the Whigs, now that they have shown that they cannot carry the counties for them-
selves, ought to be prepared to admit. We have not the slightest prejudice in favour of such representatives in• them- selves. Opinions being alike, we distinctly prefer the great squire, who leads the cosmopolitan life and knows what nations are, to the little squire or the wealthy farmer, who knows chiefly what his own class wants, or at best what is good for the rural districts of the kingdom. We would rather be governed by Lord Leicester than by Mr. Clare Read, and very often we shall not get anybody so good as Mr. Clare Read, who, though he is decidedly "canny," is upright and intelligent. But the demand is just. The very principle of representative government is imperilled by the monopoly of county seats now allowed to the county gentry, more especially when subjects are to be discussed on which their interests and those of their constituents are decidedly at variance. Candidates who do not own land ought to have the second seats, and great Whigs ought to announce that they agree to that arrangement, and will do all in their power to carry it out. If they do, they will in that very act display a sympathy with rural opinion which will materially modify the present suspicion of their fairness ; while if they do not, they will be compelled once more to fight opponents whose burden is lightened for them by the aid of an unbroken stream of tradition. If they desire to carry the counties, they should formally accept the county reforms, and formally agree to support any tenant candidate put forward by the " Alliances," provided only that he can be fully trusted to vote this Government out.
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