TOPICS OF THE DAY.
THE EMPEROR'S SPEECH. THE hush of strained expectation with which Europe listens for the annual speech of the Emperor of the French has this year been amply rewarded. There is no living Sovereign, there is perhaps but one in history, who may compete as an orator with Napoleon III., and he has delivered no speech to be compared with this. Couched in that tone of apparent frankness which is the specialty of Bonaparte oratory, which was as marked on the 18th Brumaire as in the apology for Villafranca, or Prince Jerome's plea for evacuating Rome, almost colloquial in its references to the living facts of the hour, and studded with the epigrammatic sentences which royalty always avoids, it is full to repletion of the Imperial force which belongs only to great ideas uttered from a throne. Acknowledging with the faintest sus- picion of a mental shrug the result of the elections, sketching slightly, but ably, the pleasanter features of his own regime for the year,—the budget which provides for conquest without a deficit, the immense additions to trade, the five millions of children present in the primary schools, the expansion of French influence on the American and Asiatic continents,—the Emperor proceeds to develop his plan for the re-organization of Europe. And what a plan ! Affairs like the insurrection in Poland, which may replace an old nationality, questions like that of Schleswig Holstein, which may cover Central Europe with blood, even difficulties like the occupation of Rome, the settlement of which may evolve a new era of religious organi- zation, shrink for the moment into insignificance before this Imperial dream. It is difficult, as we read, not to forget that the speaker directs the most warlike nation in Europe, not to imagine that we are listening to some politician of the study instead of the master of fifty legions. It is all real, however, and it is an Emperor of the French, whose words are themselves events, who declares that Europe is " everywhere agitated by the elements of dissolution," that " the jealousies of the Great Powers hinder the march of civilization," and that the "day has arrived to reconstruct on a new basis the edifice ruined by time and destroyed piece by piece by revo- lutions ;" who asks whether " we shall eternally maintain a state which is neither peace with its security, nor war with its happy chances," and who, then speaking " in the name of France," that is, of almost irresistible military power, summons all Europe to Congress to furnish the solution which "at the North as well as at the South"—in Scandinavia as in Rome and Turkey—" powerful interests" demand. It is not the status of Poland, or Italy, or Servia, or Schleswig, or even of Germany, but of Europe, which a new Congress of Vienna is summoned to Paris to decide. One immense but peaceable re-arrangement, to be based on the wishes of the nations, and to disarm the " subversive parties " by sur- rendering " narrow calculations," to be enforced by irresistible power, and therefore without the sabre, and followed by a general disarmament.—this is the splendid dream with which the Emperor of the French summons the world to council. It is a dream, too, deep in his heart, for under his counsel may be heard an under-tone of menace. "Those who refuse he will suspect of secret projects which shun the light of day." There "are but two paths open, the one conducts to progress by civilization and peace, the other, sooner or later, leads fatally to war by the obstinate maintenance of a past which is crumbling away."
There is something so striking in such a proposal coming from such a Sovereign,—something so utterly unlike anything which ordinary diplomatists, or Emperors, or Premiers say, or even think, that the mind, bewildered by its magnitude, refuses at first to arrive at any defined conclusion. The facts, too, are, at first sight, in favour of the Imperial plan. Every man who knows Europe knows also that Napoleon speaks the truth when he says that the questions afoot must be solved, and solved finally, or Europe will, sooner or later,—and sooner rather than later,—be involved in a general war. All diplomatists know that he is stating the simplest fact in the tersest language, when he says " the treaties of 1815 have ceased to exist. Germany agitates to change them, England has generously modified them by the cession of the Ionian Islands, Russia tramples them under foot at- Warsaw," and France, we may add, in Prince Jerome's words, "tore them up at the point of the sword" at Magenta and Solferino. They have ceased to exist. Europe does want a new "funda- mental pact." There is the gravest reason to fear that we shall establish one only after a war to which all modern wars will be trifles, which will change from a war of boundaries into one of principles, and be, therefore, without end save exhaustion, and it is a noble effort to make one last appeal to the reason of mankind, and strive to arrange in what would really be " a Parliament of Man," if not " the federation of the world," at least that of Europe. Since the days 'of Alberoni, no dream more brilliant has been put forward by a statesman of the first class ; but amidst all our admiration we cannot conceal from ourselves.
that it is but a dream, a last effort honest or unreal to stay the European world on a course along which the new aspira- tions of nations and the old foolishness of Kings, the uprising of new ideas like those of nationality, and the crumbling of dominions like that of the Turks in Europe, the want of statesmen in England, and the existence of a Napoleon in. France, alike combine to urge it.
Let us examine the project shorn of the Emperor's words as a practical diplomatic scheme. His Majesty proposes a new Congress of Vienna, to be attended by representatives of all the Powers, and to possess the right of "solving" every ques- tion a solution of which " is demanded by mighty interests." Foremost among those questions, questions " of the South as well as the North," stand those of Schleswig, the Rhine, Rome, Venetia, Poland, and European Turkey, which latter would be made justly enough to include the whole shore of the Mediterranean. Let us imagine that Europe, half awed and half ashamed of preferring war to negotiation, really- obeys the summons. Such an occurrence is far from probable ; but Russia, the Emperor says, in a passage to which we shall have to revert, has consented to such a Con- gress, provided only all questions are open; the British Govern- ment, it seems clear, has agreed to waive the treaties of 1815, and might possibly be induced to take part; and the German Powers may, not to mince words, be coerced into accepting their seats. Let us assume the Congress assembled and ready, the first diplomatists of Europe collected under the presidency of its ablest Sovereign, and what chance is there of their agreeing on those wide and permanent changes which can alone supply the basis of a new "fundamental pact," or allow Europe to abandon its condition of expensive but sterile preparation ? Many of the questions, doubtless;and among them some of those which appear least soluble, might receive their solution. Rome can be evacuated whenever the Emperor wills, and Austria might take compensation for Venetia. Russia might, though we doubt it, on certain conditions, resign enough of Poland to make reconstruction feasible; and the cession of Gibraltar to Spain is no more impossible with Moorish help. than that of the Ionian Islands. Europe combined could, without bloodshed, mediatize all the German States but two, Germany so strengthened might resign part of the Rhine, and Schleswig is just the question a Congress could finally settle: There can be no doubt that, with Poland and Italy revived and tranquil, Germany divided only into North and South, Scandinavia freed from apprehension, and the pride of France gratified to her heart's core, Europe might rest in peace for another thirty years. But no arrangement can be stable which does not revive Poland, and the revivification of Poland, with Russia as a consenting Power, means the dismemberment of Turkey, for it is from Turkey alone she could obtain compensation. Setting aside the moral question, which is not so powerful as it looks, for Mr. Gladstone, once aided by the Consulates, could in three months produce among Englishmen as deep an abhorrence of Turkish rule as was ever felt for that of King Bombe, is it conceivable that the interests of the Powers could on such a point be made to coalesce ? Is it not absolutely certain that England, which on many questions could be sure of allies, would on this remain isolated, and as certain that the people of this country would not in this matter submit to be overruled? Either, therefore, England would be compelled to fight Congress, i.e., the Continent, or the proceedings of the solemn assembly would be neutralized, Turkey spared, and the compensation on which alone Russia would surrender Poland finally rendered impossible. This "Eastern question" again, is but one of a score on which the nations are divided, as much by feelings, hopes, antipathies—all that play of the imagination which really stirs nations—as by those material interests which only appear to stir them. France will not propose to lay aside her strength because a Congress has sat, and England is armed as much from jealousy of France as for any specific end. England will not give up her ascendancy at sea for any purpose whatso- ever and it is in fleets, not armies, that the burdensome race of Napoleon and Palmerston has been run. Above all, the greatest source of disturbance, the rising of new ideas within the nationalities themselves, cannot be checked by any Con- gress, and the first Red explosion in France, or religious movement in Germany, or peasant rising in Russia, might shake down in a week all that Congress had elaborated with such a Waste of force, and thought, and care. Omitting all mention of outside complications, of the jarring among the Powers who are settling down on the ancient monarchies of Asia, and the rotting Republics of Spanish America, or of the indefinite disturbing force the United States may exert, the Congress, even in Europe, could settle nothing but boundaries, and it is not for boundaries that modern nations have waged, or will wage, the fiercest wars.
It is difficult not to believe that the Emperor sees all, and much more than all this, that he is, as it were, offering to Europe one stately and pleasant alternative sure to be refused, before plunging once more into war. For that, ho hints unmistakeably, will be the consequence of a rejection of his offer. The speaker can realize prophecy, and it is well, therefore, to study carefully the few oracles ho emits. A care- ful perusal of his whole speech, so far as it bears on Poland, will, we believe, leave this impression upon the mind. The Emperor has determined, with that inflexibility which the public always attributes to him, but which he only manifests just before his blow, to set Poland free. So clear is this one decision, that he goes out of his way to afford to the insurrec- tion a kind of official sanction, as one which " by its duration has become a national movement." If this freedom can be accomplished by Congress, well; if not, it must be by war; but by what war he has not quite decided. War with Russia would seem the more natural course, and Russia is, therefore, menaced in the rough allusion to her present conduct in Warsaw. But the Emperor is quite as interested in the Eastern question as in Poland, and " hesitates, therefore, to compromise one of the first alliances of the Continent," an alliance with a Power which, since " the peace, has been in agreement with France on the grand European questions," which did not object to the annexation of Nice and Savoy, and would not, the Emperor thinks, object to that of the Rhine. It might be possible to revive Poland by finding for Russia compensation in Turkey, and the Emperor, resolved on his end, hesitates as to his road. Is it to-be war for Poland alone, or for Poland and the re-settlement of the whole Eastern question? The English alliance will, in all proba- bility, decide his course, and the net result of his speech is, we submit, sufficiently clear,—a Congress of Paris to erase the memory of that of Vienna and " reconstruct the edifice," or a general war in spring. The resolve has at last been taken, and with Italy a great State, and Poland recalled to life, even those who believe in Providence may acknowledge Napoleon's raison d'être.
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