Who are the moderates?

GARRET FITZGERALD

After the split in Sinn Fein over acceptance of the Anglo-Irish Treaty of December 1921, which conceded Dominion status to the greater part of the island, there were three political groups in the new Irish State—the pro-Treaty government group, which in due course constituted itself the Cumann na nGaeilge party; the anti-Treaty Republi- cans who, three years after the end of the civil war in 1923. split again, the great ma- jority entering the Dail as the Fianna Fail party; and the Irish Labour party, whose origins ante-date independence and which during and immediately after the civil war constituted the only parliamentary opposi- tion to the new government. In the years since 1922 no less than nine political groups have been formed, secured representation in the Dail or lower house, and have disap- peared again from parliament, leaving today the same three original political groups monopolising the parliamentary scene—al- though Cumann na nGaeilge changed its name to Fine Gael in 1934 when several other groups merged with it.

Outside parliament there are today, as there have always been, other small political groups or parties most of them on the left. The most durable is Sinn Fein, the rump of the old Republican movement, which is closely linked with the IRA, and whose movement to the left in recent years has led to a further split in its ranks. The more nationalist and militaristic elements have constituted themselves the 'provisional' IRA Council. and have been active in the troubles in Northern Ireland.

The three parliamentary parties between them give expression to the whole range of non-revolutionary political opinion, but because the two main parties originated in a division which has for some decades past been irrelevant to the current political situa- tion, and because the Labour party has failed at any stage to 'get off the ground', never securing more than one-sixth of the seats in the Dail, the relationship between political attitudes and party membership is not as clear-cut as in most European coun- tries.

Thus the government party, Fianna Fail, originally drew its strength from those who had least to lose by a continuation of the struggle against Britain and who thus resisted the Treaty settlement by force of arms in the civil war. But it was those republicans who became disillusioned with this policy and who were realistic enough to see that the path to office lay through parlia- ment, who broke away from the Republican movement to form Fianna Fail. From its origins Fianna Fail has thus con.rained elements of idealistic republicanism and of realistic power-hunger. Moreover the slowness of the first Cumann na nGaeilge government to introduce industrial pro- tection gave Fianna Fail the chance after it came to power in 1932 to create the con- ditions in which modern Trish industry finds its origins—so that it soon found itself sup-

ported not alone by 'men of no property' and small farmers, who were its first mainstay. but also by most industrialists and many in- dustrial workers. Finally its long period in office (thirty-two of the last thirty-eight years) has made it an 'establishment' party, and in the past decade it has become asso- ciated with a single-mindedly materialistic approach to economic development which has shown scant regard for the conservation of Ireland's remarkable environment.

This history has given Fianna Fail two characteristics—a strong power base, with support drawn more or less evenly from all social groups. and a split personality, as the older nationalistic republican tradition comes into conflict with the later materialism. There are moreover liberal elements in the party out of sympathy with both these strands. Fine Gael traditionally found its strongest support in the farming community, especially among the owners of medium- sized or large farms, among the professional classes, and, until the declaration of the Republic in 1949 by a Fine Gad Premier, Mr John A. Costello. amongst the Protestant community also. Since 1964, however, under the inspiration of Mr Costello's son, Declan Costello, it has moved to the left committing itself to wide-ranging social reforms and to an extension of participation by workers in industry, by parents and teachers in educa- tion, and by the public in local government.

TheCabour party has throughout much of the history of the state been con- servative—and at times even clericalist—in its attitudes, although there has always been. especially in the urban Labour movement, a more left-wing element. Until the last elec- tion Labour's parliamentary representation was predominantly rural, and even today its parliamentary representatives include one whose violent hostility to the left finds fre- quent and stormy expression, as, for ex- ample, in the denunciation of anti-apartheid activities, and another who alone in the Dail has questioned the propo4a1 to eliminate from the Irish Constitution a reference to the 'special position' of the Roman Catholic Church. But in recent years the growth of Labour support in Dublin and some other urban centres, and the left-wing character of the Labour movement in these areas, has shifted the party's centre of gravity sharply leftwards, a trend—unscrupulously exploited by Fianna Fail—which cost Labour half-a- dozen seats at last year's general election.

Thus for historical reasons all three parties reflect a wide range of politic.al opinions on internal issues. In relation to Northern Ireland, however, a more clear-cut position exists, at any rate in the two Opposition parties in parliament. Both these parties are totally committed to peaceful and moderate policies in Northern Ireland, and since last autumn have clearly stated their view that the division of Ireland should be ended only with the consent of a majority of the people of Northern Ireland. In this approach they see the key to the eventual ending of Parti-

tion, as well as the key to the more im- mediate aim of damping down emotions in Northern Ireland, where the feelings between the two communities derive prin- cipally from fear—Protestant fear of being forced unwillingly into an all-Ireland republic, and Roman Catholic fear of being exploited and even massacred by the Protes- tant majority.

On this crucial issue Fianna Fail are deeply divided, however. The party's 'republican' tradition has always been based on the proposition that the partition of Ireland was a wrong and that Ireland's future should therefore be decided by all its people, without any right of self-determina- tion for an artificially created north-eastern statelet. As time has passed this tradition has weakened, however, and the party now con- tains both materialist and liberal elements who no longer profess this ancient faith, but who share with the Opposition a belief in the hopelessness of a solution achieved either by force or by means of a deal with Britain over the heads of a hostile Northern Ireland ma- jority.

This split in Fianna Fail was suppressed" until the events of August 1969. Between that time and May of this year it simmered, bubbling over occasionally in public duels between the Premier Jack Lynch and some of his fellow ministers. Then came the arms crisis when the pot boiled over—but the arrest of two Ministers and others accused of illegal gun-running rammed the lid back on again and as the trial proceeded the pressure built up inside. By Friday 23 October, when the defendants in the trial were acquitted, the pressure had built up to an intolerable level and the explosion came. There was the ex-Minister, Charles Haughey; his colleague Neil Blaney who had been discharged earlier; and two other ex-ministers—Micheal 0 Morain who was also dismissed in May and Kevin Boland, who then resigned in protest. They made a bold challenge to Lynch's leadership, declaring that he had abandoned Fianna Fail policy, and con- demning the severe economic measures about to be put to the Dail.

Lynch replied by challenging them in their turn to bring the government down if they disapproved its policies and by • calling on them to resign their seats.

Under such pressure, the back of this revolt seems to have been broken for the moment. But assuredly the government remains under sentence of death. Its par- liamentary party is torn by bitter dissension.

When—as must happen in any event be- fore very long—the Dail is dissolved and the people are given a chance to express their views, a divided and mutually embittered Fianna Fail could face a severe defeat. In that event the principal opposition party. Fine Gael will form a government. Should it fail to secure an overall majority it is likely to be supported in this task by the Labour party, whose parliamentary members almost all favour participation in such a govern- ment, although such a course of action would require prior approval by a Labour party special delegate conference.

One fact is starkly clear, however. What- ever limited support the dismissed Ministers may rally, there exists in the Republic—and in its parliament today—a vast majority in favour of peaceful and moderate policies vis- â-vis the North. Indeed the one benefit of the tragic events of the past two years has been the new sense of responsibility and realism that they have induced in this part of Ireland. What form that majority will take in the next Dail no one can know at this stage. but that there will be a government com- mitted to such policies after the next general election is certain.

No one should be misled in the weeks ahead by the noisy ballyhoo that will sur- round the dismissed Ministers and their supporters as they seek to rally their sup. porters throughout the country.

The next Irish government will have as tough a task to face as any government since the post-civil-war period.

A group of ambitious men, backed by forces of unreason, will do their best to disrupt parliament and to unsettle the country.

An economic crisis has already provoked the government to freeze wages and other incomes. This has to be tackled in the face of a threat of widespread industrial unrest.

But the Irish democratic system has with. stood worse trials than this in the early days of the new state. It will not founder now.