MERCHANTS OF DEATH
HE signing of a contract for the supply of Czech arms to the Egyptian Government and the hint that Saudi Arabia and Syria might do likewise seem to have caused excessive surprise in London and Washington. Yet it is a move which might have been expected. The Western policy of per- mitting Middle Eastern states to buy only restricted quantities of arms was bound sooner or later to lead Egypt and other Arab countries to look elsewhere, while the open enlistment of Iron Curtain support in the struggle against Israel (which is what the deal amounts to) will enable Colonel Nasser and his fellows to pose more successfully as the spear-point of Arab nationalism, a claim which was seriously shaken by the adhesion of Iraq to the regional defence pact between Turkey and Pakistan. In these circumstances it was easy for the Soviet Union, which has nothing to lose in the area and, in any.case, seems to have written off.Israel as a possible ally, to add fuel to an already fiery situation. What she is up to in the Middle East is plain mischief-making, and dangerous mischief-making at that, for The inconvenient fact is that Russia's very irrespon- sibility will always enable her to outbid Britain and America in dealing with the Arab States. Where arms go, technicians and military missions may follow, and the prospect of Egypt, Syria and Saudi Arabia gravitating into the Soviet orbit is as alarming a vista as any the cold war has opened up.
To set against this threat there is the fact that Colonel Nasser and his colleagues are no Communists, and must realise the dangers of Russian penetration in Egypt. Moreover, there is evidence that this move was not intended by the Egyptian Government as a fundamental change in their foreign policy. When Colonel Nasser claims that the buying of Czech arms does not contravene the Anglo-Egyptian treaty, it is probable that he is sincere, but the question is whether the delivery of weapons from behind the Iron Curtain will not lead to a gradual, sub- terranean growth of Soviet influence rather than to any dramatic switch of Egyptian policy. It is all very well for Colonel Nasser to deny any intention of importing Iron Curtain technicians, but who is to assemble these weapons? Who is to service them and instruct Egyptian soldiers in their use? Here are plenty of openings for infiltration, and this is a game in which the Russians are traditionally skilled. Colonel Nasser should fear the Communist•States, even when presenting arms.
More immediately, the Soviet action Creates an increased threat to the security of Israel. Whatever the likelihood of renewed assault by the Arab States, it is natural that the Israeli Government should take a grave view of a shift to the Arab side in the balance of Middle Eastern armaments. Fortunately, there are no signs that the Israelis are contemplating any very drastic action for the moment, but obviously, from their point of view, the arguments for a preventive war would become overwhelming, if it appeared that they were being left alone to face a steady growth of Arab power, which would one day be used to destroy them. The urgent task of British and American policy in the Middle East is, therefore, to reassure Israel. The most satisfactory way to do this would be a settle- ment between her and the Arab States, but it does not look as if the latter are willing even to consider the Dulles plan. Nor can Britain and America do anything much to stop the Arab States acquiring arms. What they can do is to guarantee the integrity of Israeli territory in a form more definite than the general guarantee of the status quo offered in 1950. This would give Israel security, thus dissuading her from desperate remedies, and would discourage the Arab States from embarking on adventures. Of course, there are objections to any such guarantee. The brutal fact is that the Arab States have more to offer both economically and as potential partners in Middle East defence than Israel. But it is becoming clear that Egypt, Syria and Saudi Arabia, though they may be fundamentally anti- Communist, have no intention of taking part in a regional defence pact. Russian intervention in the Middle East has brought to a head a threat of war which was always present and which can only. be removed by making it quite clear to the Arabs that Israel is there to stay and quite clear to the Israelis that there is no necessity for them to forestall an Arab attack. As to Egyptian fears of Israeli aggression, there is a simple way to calm them, and that is for Colonel Nasser and his government to agree to negotiate about a final settlement. Pending that, it is up to Britain and America to keep the peace; the dangers of war in the Middle East are so great that mere self-interest demands every effort to avert the worst conse- quences of the wrecker's policy pursued by the Soviet Union.
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