lege petty 1nOrtoeuvres
It is more remarkable that Mr Jones is adhering to the so-called social contract with the Labour Government than it is that Mr Scanlon is, apparently, abandoning the whole idea for good and all. Nonetheless, the social contract scheme, by which Mr Wilson and Mr Foot and their colleagues set such store, and in which they have invested so much electoral hope, is just about as relevant to the solving of Britain's problems as was Mr Heath's ill-fated incomes policy. It is based, of course, on one of the oldest of Labour Party maxims — that a Labour government is to be preferred to a Conservative because Labour automatically gets on better with the unions: a maxim which, though true now, is not and has not always necessarily been so. But whatever the antiquity of the principle of the social contract, its present usefulness is not very marked.
According to the terms of the social contract the trade union movement will restrain its wage demands, or at least its grosser wage demands, in return for the implementation by the Government of new and more radical social reforms. Thus Labour, by creating a more just society through its radical measures, will persuade the unions to hold back on wage claims which ministers, and opposition politicians, persist in regarding as inflationary. In any ordinary world, one in which black was black and white was white, the social contract would be smashed to pieces already, on the grounds that the government had introduced so many measures that were socially unjust and morally unfair; but in our topsy-turvy polity Labour is adjudged to have made a stab at social justice and reform, and the unions are undoubtedly eager for Mr Wilson and his colleagues to win the next general election, so, apart from the fiery Mr Scanlon, who seems to have relaxed Into the arms of extremists in his own union, they are doing their best to secure a peaceful climate for Mr Foot.
These petty manoeuvres take no account, however, of the serious situation in which the country finds itself, nor the even more serious situation into which we are drifting. If it is true — as we believe — that trade unions cause inflation only in so far as their more unreasonable demands are pandered to, then it is still the case that the kind of social reform with which the Labour Government, encouraged by the unions, has been tinkering makes worse rather than better the country's economic situation. The attempted rescue of Court Line, for example, was another piece of evidence that this government would go to almost any lengths to prevent the collapse of a failing company, and commit itself to almost any amount of public expenditure to do so. Mr Wedgwood-Benn has been a more enthusiastic practitioner of the social contract than any other minister, and his expenditure, his interventions, are far dearer to the heart of the trade union movement than Mr Foot's attempts to restrain them. They are also vastly more expensive and, above all, they conceal for a little longer from the country the truth about our plight, a truth that can be revealed only when the country has gone through a great deal more travail, a moment which is postPoned rather than averted by silly chatter about a practically undefinable social contract.
Farewell Haile?
The days of power and glory have departed for the Emperor of Ethiopia, and it appears likely that he will not even be allowed to live out his life in titular office. Throughout his long career the Emperor has been an illustrious symbol of his people and country abroad, but the long tale of woe and neglect, of reforms scarce begun and rarely implemented, has at last caught up With him and with his followers and servants. What has been most remarkable so far is the moderation of the Ethiopian Army in pursuit of its reformist goals: its reluctance to assume power itself appears to be unfeigned, as has its trepidation in the face of the challenge of what to do about Haile Selassie. Thus, for all its Poverty and wretchedness, Ethiopia appears as a country of — so far at least — considerable sophistication in matters of Politics and change. The officers in charge of the transformation may well, upon reflection, find it advisable to retain the monarchy, either in the person of the Present Emperor or that of his grandson, and possibly it would be wise, too, to Preserve for some time at least the existing links of the state with the Coptic church. The urgent business in hand is the improvement of the condition of the People, and that may best be done smoothly by preserving as much as Possible of the traditional structure of affairs.
Wrong decision
Under the severest pressure from the Defence Staff, and resisting the severest Pressure from some Labour ministers, the Secretary of State for Defence has decided to allow exercises between the Royal Navy and the South African Navy to go ahead. Logically and morally these are perfectly Permissible, and fall within the guidelines of military policy towards South Africa laid down by the last Labour government. Then, too, there is a distinct Russian threat in the Pacific, and the South African Navy Could form a useful component of any force designed to meet it. Nonetheless, ,Whatever the strategic necessity appears to be, Mr Mason and his government may well have taken the wrong decision.
Apart from the use of British troops to quell mutinies in East Africa more than a decade ago, and more or less covert British military aid in sustaining certain black African regimes, notably the Nigerian, there has been no serious effort on the part of this country to develop serious military relations with black African governments. An imaginative scheme put forward in the early stages of the life of the Heath government, to create a naval base at • Mombasa which would replace Simonstown, was turned down out of hand by the Foreign Office. But the whole political direction and future of Africa now clearly lies in the hands of the black nations and tribes, whatever their malfeasances, errors and crudities: the idea that Rhodesia and South Africa can for any length of time have a substantial, let alone a civilising, influence in the continent will shortly have to be abandoned as quickly as was the equivalent Portuguese dream. Therefore, any tactical advantage to be gained by comradeship with South Africa will almost certainly be greatly outweighed by the long term disadvantages of such a partnership. However hard the road, it behoves Britain to turn her policy towards the blacks of Africa, not the whites, and serve interest as well as morality.
Profligate Italy
The West German government has again given proof of its determination to make something of a reality out of the Common Market by making a massive individual contribution to the clearing of Italy's debts. Again and again, the Germans have shown themselves to be perhaps the only member of the EEC to take their responsibilities towards their fellow members seriously, and their unselfishness deserves approbation. Nonetheless, the wisdom of their conduct should be questioned: since the war a combination of profligacy and irresponsibility, combined with political instability, has brought Italy to her present unhappy position. Unless the Italians themselves — and the same applies to other countries in difficulties, like our own — apply self-discipline in their own affairs, and put their own houses in order, even the exceptional generosity of so willing a paymaster as West Germany will avail them nothing in the difficulties ahead.
Deceptive quiet
For all the manifold problems pressing themselves on his attention, President Ford would be well advised to give some careful and patient attention to the Middle East during the next few days, and especially during the visit to the United States of the new Israeli Prime Minister, Mr Rabin. Although things have remained reasonably quiet since the much-vaunted Kissinger ceasefire, there are indications of coming squalls in relations between Israel and the Arab states. Realising that there has not been much sign of further constructiveness on the part of her neighbours, Israel has been hardening her political line, and the latest inclination is to take a view jaundiced indeed of the prospect of any further territorial concessions. At the same time, both the Egyptians and the Syrians have been girding their loins for a renewal of armed conflict. It is probably true to say that, for the moment at any rate, it is impossible to get much civilised change out of the Syrians, but it would be tragic indeed if President Sadat, who has come a long way towards peace on the strength of his Army's lucky successes against Israeli forces last October, now began to back-pedal away from the prospect of an agreement that would not merely bring him peace with honour, but which would enable him to set about those internal Egyptian reforms which may bring to his people opportunities of improvement so long denied them by the fanatical regime of Nasser. Only the US can hope to ensure that the present precarious balance is preserved; and she can do that only if even her substantial domestic problems are not allowed to distract attention from what remains the most dangerous area of world politics.
By the book
The bookmaking industry — controlled nowadays not by intrepid individuals but by faceless public companies — has further tarnished its `image' by the yelps of pain and refusals to pay up following the coup pulled off by an Irish syndicate in London betting shops on Bank Holiday Monday. A horse named Gay Future, which won at odds of ten to one at the small north-country course, Cartmel, was backed to the tune of, it is reported, at least 00,000 in hundreds of small bets. Horses with that amount betted on them at small race meetings are not usually, of course, allowed to start at such generous odds, since the 'blower' system ensures that substantial off-course bets are relayed to the course in sufficient volume to shorten the starting price. But there was no `blower' service to Cartmel, and the bookmakers evidently did not feel it necessary to mount some more elaborate operation, because most of the bets coupled Gay Future with a horse due to run five minutes earlier at Plurnpton and another due to run twenty-five minutes later at Southwell. All three horses are in the same stables and ownership, and the other two did not, in fact, run. By the rules governing such contingencies, all the doubles and trebles thus became single bets on the winning Gay Future.
At the time of writing, bookmakers are largely withholding payment of winnings, and their association is having the circumstances of the coup investigated by Scotland Yard. It is not for us to remark on those circumstances, but it is pertinent to remind bookmakers of the necessity, in the interests of their shareholders, to take ordinarily sensible steps to close the potential loopholes in their defences before they are exploited by astute punters. Perhaps now they will need no advice on the latter score. What they apparently do need advice upon — and we are surprised that Lord Wigg has not offered it — is the ethics of betting. It is a cardinal rule that "if you cannot win, you cannot lose" and, conversely, that those who stand to lose must also stand to win. There can be no question but that the bettors on Gay Future ran the risk of losing: the horse was racing over hurdles for the first time in public. No bookmaker should have hesitated for a moment before paying out unless he was prepared to put his hand on his heart and honestly affirm that, if Gay Future had fallen, he would have refunded the stakes.
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