THE UNITED STATES AND SPAIN. A MERICA is essentially the land
of the unexpected and the dramatic,—the land where strange things happen instead of being merely talked about. Think what is the actual result of President McKinley's sudden postponement of his Message till Monday next. The world believed that on Wednesday it was to learn whether there was to be peace or war between Spain and the States. Suddenly, and literally at the eleventh hour, it was announced that the President would not send his Message till Monday, and that till then nothing would be divulged as to the reasons for the postponement. The result has been to leave two continents in profound suspense, and to put every Bourse in the world into violent alternations of heat and cold. Till Monday no man can tell for certain whether there is to be peace or war, whether the Spanish cruisers will be let loose against American commerce and the American coast towns, or whether the fate of Spain is to be decided in yet another naval action. All is suspense and waiting till Easter is over. The " yellow Press" may rage, and the Senators and Congressmen talk ibig,but the White House keeps it secrets, and we may depend upon it that the Sphinx could not be more dumb than will be the American Executive till Monday. It is a strange situation. The world is, as it were, like a ship passing through the space of dead- calm water in the heart of a cyclone. The tempest is raging all round, but for the moment she goes quietly and as in a dream. It is curious to imagine, and would be more curious still to know, the passionate efforts that will be made during this breathing space to secure peace, and to get Spain or America to yield. Though we should hail the success of such efforts with unbounded satisfaction— provided always they really secured an end to the Cuban horrors—we cannot believe that a peaceful solution is now likely. We adhere, that is, to the belief which we have expressed in these columns for the last six months,—namely, that short of a/political miracle, war will be the end of the Cuban controversy. While America claims to intervene, and Spain claims the right to do what she will with her own, and neither side will abandon her claim, how is it possible to obtain a peaceful solution ? Good feeling, moderation, and a desire for peace may get over even events so terrible as the destruction of the ' Maine,' but they do not alter the relative positions of Spain and America in regard to Cuban independence. It may seem tiresome to point out this fact so often, but, as that wise and brilliant statesman, Mountstuart Elphinstone, said, politicians al- ways imagine that things can be, and not be, at the same instant of time. They seem to be imagining just now that Spain can yield, and not yield, to America's demands at one and the same moment.
The reasons that induced the President of the United States to withhold his Message have not yet been fully stated, but in all probability the simplest and most natural explanation is the true one. The President was told that if he sent his Message, and war resulted, the lives of the American citizens in Cuba—women and children as well as men—would be in grave peril. In a word, the Consular authorities asked for another three days to withdraw the American population of Havana. Statesmen with strong sense of responsibility—and Mr. McKinley evidently feels responsibility very deeply—are never sorry for an excuse not to say the word which makes the guns speak ; but here it was not a case of excuse but of an almost imperative reason. The risk of a massacre of the Americans in Havana was a risk too great to run if it could be prevented by a few days' delay. As we have said, this explanation is quite sufficient ; but there may be another, 'though it is one which, by its nature, could not be disclosed. Though most unlikely, it is Just possible that the President found, or fancied he found, that he was face to face with a coalition of the Continental Powers formed nominally "to preserve the peace of the world, and to induce Spain to yield to all reasonable and moderate demands which may be put forward by the United States in regard both to Cuba and the 'Maine.'" Suppose that such a coalition exists, or looks like coming into existence—a coalition formed of France and Russia, Germany and Austria—the President might well feel cause for hesitation and delay. If he were warned privately that negotiations were going on, and were to notice confirmatory symptoms in the official behaviour of the Continental Envoys, it would want a very strong and resolute President to put aside all thought of considering the Continental pressure. No doubt a President of the highest statesman- ship and determination would say at once : 'Nonsense. This is only bluff. The Continental Powers are not going to do anything but use hints about Spain. The moment we act all their protests and talk of "we could an' we would" will die away. Besides, if such a crisis were actually to take place, England must and would come to our aid, and we and England need not fear any coalition.' But, then, with all his good qualities, Mr. McKinley is probably not a very resolute and far-seeing man. Though he may be brave, he probably would be a good deal bewildered by the thought of America against all Europe. In all probability, too, he would not feel sure that he could reckon on our help, for he would mistake our habitual diplomatic reserve for indifference. As a matter of fact, if America were really attacked by a great Continental coalition, England would be at her side in twenty-four hours. Still, as we have said, the President may not know this, or, at any rate, may not like to trust it. Therefore, anything like a substantial rumour of a coalition being formed might make him determine to pause, and get a day or two's consideration before he took any irrevocable step. Remember Mr. McKinley does not know his Europe, and has no one at hand to tell him what are possible and what are impossible among the hundred things suggested as to action by the Powers. For example, if he were told that the Continental Powers had secretly agreed on an anti-Monroe doctrine, under which they would combine to prevent any territory now in possession of a. European Power passing under American control, he would probably feel the need for gaining time to dis- cover whether there was any truth in the report. How- ever, we do not wish to labour this point. In all pro- bability the President has, as we have said above, simply postponed his Message in order to allow time for the American citizens to leave Cuba. Again, it is quite possible that a day or two more may be urgently required by the Navy Department. They have several stray purchases in different parts of the world, and it would be very inconvenient to have war break out before these could be concentrated.
If war does ultimately take place, it must, of course, to begin with, be a purely maritime war, and a maritime war which possibly will open with a great fleet action, which will decide matters if the Spanish are beaten, but not if the Americans are defeated, for defeat is the one thing which will make them absolutely resolute. Fruit- less victories might make them tire of war, not defeat. But though a great fleet action is fairly likely, it is also possible that the Spanish strategists may try to produce a guerilla warfare on the sea. If they do, the Americans may be terribly harassed. In that case America will, we presume, first try to keep the Spanish ships from coaling by attacking and destroying their coal depots, and if that fails, by attacking Spain herself. We shall then see whether the Spaniards at home can and will imitate the tactics of the Cuban insurgents. If they do America may for a time have her hands very full.
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