Accents of doom
LETTERS
From: P.,A. W. M.erriton, Professor Michael Crowder, Chike Anikwue, G. C. S. Hopcutt, Christopher Hollis, F. R. Cumberbirch, K. P. Obank, Lieut-Col L. F. Urwick, Dr Hugh J. Schonfield.
Sir: Your editorial criticising Mr Heath for pointing to the mounting volume of Britain's overseas indebtedness is less than just (5 July). He may, after all, have the foresight and fore- thought to be concerned with long-term politics rather than short-term economics.
It cannot have escaped him that the Govern- ment has concluded and is negotiating a number of arrangements by which millions of pounds become repayable in June 1971. No doubt fresh arrangements can be arrived at then. But if they have to be made by a Government which is only a few weeks old; there is as likely to be a first' class temporary financial crisis in the spring of 1971 as there was in the autumn of 1964. Mr Heath may reffect that he might pos- sibly be in charge of that government, facing an able and dialectic Leader of the Opposition who would be tempted to make the maximum political capital out of the new government's discomfiture.
He must be aware, too, that in a country where annual budgetary and financial policy is customarily settled in the month of April, an outgoing administration is in a position to lay the foundations of chaos for its successor by holding a general election in March; a live threat if the political character of the adminis- tration changes as a result of the voting.
Taking these two matters in conjunction, Mr Heath seems entirely in order in drawing attention to the existence of what must seem to him a serious problem with which he may have to deal. He may even think that if there is a stimulated consumer boom in the latter part of 1970 (which in the past has always been associated with a heavy balance of payments deficit) the difficulties of refunding the debt repayable in 1971 combined with funding that incurred in 1970 may be gravely increased. All in all, Mr Heath may be forgiven for thinking ahead.
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