ITALY

All fall down

P. FILO DELLA TORRE

Paolo Fib o della Torre is London corres- pondent of '24 Ore',

The despair of the politicians at the col- lapse of the Italian Government led by Signor Rumor, so generously described by the political correspondents, need not be taken too seriously. The only one of them whose tears are genuine is Signor Nenni.

The reunification of the two warring wings of the Italian Socialist movement. the Social Democrats and his own PSI, was the culmination of Signor Nenni's life's work. Like most Italians Nenni is a romantic at heart, and reconciliation between Socialists stirred his enthusiasm. More practically it took him to the Foreign Ministry, which he thoroughly enjoyed, and held out the pros- pect of accession to the Presidency. Now all his dreams have crashed in ruins.

No lasting coalition formula can now be found in the present Parliament to satisfy both the two main wings of the dominant Christian Democrat group. Moreover leaders of all the main parties would probably welcome elections, which would at least give them a brief release from the agonising job of holding their parliamentary supporters together. And then there is the fact that President Saragat. with whom the choice of dissolution rests. is both the founder and in a sense the patron of the Social Democrats, now re- emerged as the PSU, and the PSU believes it would benefit from early elections.

At this point it is necessary to say some- thing about the tangled background of the Italian Socialist movement. Twenty years ago it split in two, with one wing, the Social Democrats, led by Signor Saragat, becom- ing a regular partner in successive coalition governments, and the other, the `Nenni Socialists' going permanently into opposi- tion with the Communists. Three years ago Signor Nenni thought he had healed the split. But the reconciliation was strictly temporary: at the very first party congress of the new unified party a left-wing frac- tion. called the PSIUP, broke away; and to- day there are no less than three party fac- tions. These are the PSU. corresponding broadly to the old Social Democrats, but with some useful recruits from the former Nenni group, who might be roughly equated to the Jenkins wing of the British Labour party; the PSI made up of Nenni Socialists with a handful of former Social Democrats thrown in, largely but not exclu- sively, cloth-cap Socialists of the old school; and the PSIUP. a group of intellectual left- wingers with strong anarchist and Maoist proclivities which is seeking to outflank the Communists on the left.

The PSU expects to do well out of early elections for several reasons. They claim to embody the ark of the Socialist coven- ant; unlike their former allies they remain loyal to the line laid down at the recent Eastbourne conference of the Socialist International, forbidding all forms of co- operation with the Communists. And they have the cash to fight an election, for they are heavily subsidised by funds from some of the American trades unions with Italian leadership. Moreover they expect the PSI to be crushed between themselves on the one side, and the Communists and PSIUP on the other.

Yet the dominant figure in the PSI, now that the unfortunate Signor Nenni has sadly withdrawn to the sidelines is Signor Mancini, and he does not give the impres- sion of being downhearted. Mancini is a remarkable character. The boss of the Calabrian Socialist machine, he lives in a magnificent palace in Rome, surrounded by servants and luxury. His calculation is that the left wing of the Christian Democrats, under the leadership of Signor Aldo Moro, will oppose all attempts to form a full- blooded alliance between their own party and the PSU on a law and order' ticket. Mancini undoubtedly sees himself as the eventual leader of a popular front stretch- ing from the left wing of the Christian Democrats to the Communists.

This, however, lies in the future—if it ever happens at all. Meanwhile there is the problem of forming a new government, even on a caretaker basis, until elections can be held, probably in September or October. This is not going to be easy. The three Socialist groups are now so bitterly hostile to each other that there can be no question of bringing more than one of them into a governing coalition. Yet the Christian Democrats would never agree at present to go it alone with the PSU, while to take the Liberals as allies would be considered dangerously reactionary, and to turn to the Monarchists nothing short of diabolical. (The Communists and the neo-Fascist msi are excluded from all calculations).

So the most probable outcome is a straightforward Christian Democrat minority government, relying on the votes of one or the other of the various smaller parties to see it through the summer. Italian politicians are quite used to an arrangement of this sort: it is known as a 'bathing-trunk government', owing to the predeliction of Signor Leone, who has headed more than one of these summer governments in the past, for having himself photographed on the Roman beaches.

Thereafter everything depends on the out- come of the elections. My own forecast would be that these could very well result in a strengthening of the parliamentary position of both the right wing of the

Christian Democrats, known as the Dormei, and the PSU, leading naturally to a reason- ably stable Christian Democrat-esu coali- tion. But for this to happen the Church will have to weigh in.

Italy is virtually the only Mediterranean country to have enjoyed uninterrupted demo- cratic rule since the war, and the gulf be- tween public opinion and the politicians is now dangerously wide. The young are rebel- lious. The economic situation is deteriorat- ing through the undermining of confidence by political uncertainties and the outflow of capital is assuming worrying proportions. Corruption is widespread, and the willing- ness of democratic politicians to indulge in flirtation with the Communists leads to cynicism.

That is why, although I am inclined to discount talk of Italy facing a stark choice between rule by the Communists and a military putsch at the present time, I accept that a very different situation would arise if the Communists should turn out to be the principle beneficiaries of an autumn elec- tion. Last time they won 27 per cent of the popular vote. Their share could rise to about one-third, and provided the Christian Demo- crats and the esu also benefit; this would not matter very much. But if their vote rises significantly above one-third of the total we shall be in uncharted territory.

The army, which made a botched attempt at a takeover in 1964, can do little on its own. But in the event of a major Com- munist electoral victory, and if it should prove impossible to form a stable two party coalition thereafter, then the army will find the allies it needs in the political and ecclesiastical establishment. The President himself is a convinced democrat, who dreams of returning to the leadership of a strengthened esu at the end of his Pres- dential term in two years' time. But if there should be deadlock after the elections it is unlikely that he would stand in the way of a military putsch; and much the same can probably be said of the Catholic Church.

For the moment, however, I incline to optimism. Indeed I believe that the break- up of the Socialist party may turn out to have opened the way to an era of modera- tion and progress. I only hope I am right.