All calculations as to the results of the next Election
in Ireland are probably useless, as they will be greatly affected by future events, and especially by the operation of the Purchase Bill. They are, however, freely offered, with one curious result. Mr. Parnell is said to believe that he shall win fifty out of the eighty-six Home-rule seats, his opponents twenty-eight, and the Unionists eight. The McCarthyites, on the contrary, say they will seat seventy Members, the Unionists eight, and Mr. Parnell only the eight un- accounted for. The Ulstermen, however, shake their heads, and think that Mr. Parnell will secure fifty followers, the McCarthyites only thirty, and the Unionists six. All parties, it will he noticed, concede direct gains to the Unionists, who are, in the popular judgment, to lose both in Scotland and England. A good deal will depend upon the depth of the clerical hostility to Mr. Parnell. If it is as rooted as it appears to be, and is shared by the peasant priesthood, the Church, if doubtful of success, might reconsider the question whether it really preferred subjugation by a local Govern- ment of Mr. Parnell's opinions, to a continuance of the existing Union. A stout but reasonable Tory might be an easier man to hear as ruler than a group of agnostics, or oven Sadducees, just embittered by a furious contest with the Church. Some day or other, probably soon, the Catholic hierarchy in Ireland will have to think out whither this con- test is hurrying, not them, but the organisation which they declare to he divine. After all, most of them, even if carried away by revolutionary fervour, must be sincere Churchmen.
