LORD DERBY'S VARIATIONS OF OPINION. [TO THU EDITOR, OF THE
" HPEOTATO11.1 Sus,—Lord Derby's last speech upon public affairs contained the obvious declaration that the present is not a favourable time for attempting to mediate between Russia and Turkey, and upon this part of his speech you treated your readers to some valuable com- ments in your last issue ; but there is also another portion of the speech, and one which has not, so far as I am aware, received either the amount, or the kind of attention which it deserves. The passage I refer to is this :—" We have done what we could to avert this unfortunate quarrel. We failed in that, and looking back on the past, I do not think success was ever possible. There was on both sides a conviction that war must come, sooner or later, and where that feeling exists, mediation is a very hopeless business."
Here we have the pessimistic view, after the negotiations have failed, and failed, as some will think, in consequence of the feeble and half-hearted policy of the English Government. Let us now turn to the optimistic view, as we find it represented in full-blown perfection in the three speeches which Lord Derby delivered to the Deputations which waited upon him in the summer and autumn of last year. In the first of these, which was delivered in July, the noble Earl is reported to have said :— " So far as it is possible for any one to forecast the future of events, I think it is the most improbable thing in the world that in consequence of anything that is now passing within the limits of the Turkish Em- pire a general European war should ensue. That seoras to me one of those hypotheses which era so remote that it is scarcely worth while to speculate upon them. I do not see the quarter from which the war is to come If nay one thing is certain in this world, it is cer- tain that the Emperor of Russia, upon whose personal will and disposi- tion more turns than upon that of any other man, is a sincere lover of peace. There other reasons, such as the condition of Russian finance, the difficulties, perhaps greater than we are aware of hero, of Russian administration, the enormous cost of the late Asiatic conquests, and various other causes which I need not go into, which make an aggres- sive policy one, at the present time, utterly unsuited to the policy of the Russian Empire."
Here, then, we have the supposition that the Servian war was, in all probability, but the prelude to conflict on a much larger scale between the Russians and the Turks treated as one of" those hypotheses which are so remote that it is scarcely worth while to speculate upon them ;" and in the two remaining extracts, which are all that I shall quote, we see the same child-like faith in mere diplomacy, and the same utter blindness to the real nature of the forces which were at work, which may, without exaggeration, be said to have characterised almost every one of the earlier speeches, of Lord Derby upon the present crisis in the Emit. "As to the future," he said, on September 11, "we are doing all in our power to bring about an armistice and peace as soon as may be, and in that respect I think I am able to say that all the Powers of Europe are cordially united with us ;" and again, about a fortnight later,—" cannot say that peace is absolutely decided, but I may say that all the dispositions on all aides are favourable, and for my part, I not only hope, but confidently believe that we
shall see this quarrel brought to an end without any further effusion of blood."
Is not the "wisdom" of Lord Derby that of the man who is blind and impotent before, though wise enough doubtless. after the event ?J am, Sir, &c.,
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