ABBAS II. T HE easy transmission of power from Tewfik to
Abbas supplies good evidence that the British occupation of Egypt is neither abnormal nor injurious to the world, but corresponds to some felt necessity of the European situa- tion. Many external circumstances were opposed to the smoothness of that devolution of authority. The event, to begin with, was entirely unexpected, the late Khedive having been a comparatively young man of active habits, no vices, and unusual freedom from the great harem risk, poison by some superseded or neglected favourite. The French were in a bad mood, quite prepared. to take advan- tage of any accident menacing to British ascendency, and inclined to imagine that the death of Tewfik might give them a chance of intervention in favour of a joint Com- mittee of Regency, or of the natural Regent, Ismail. The Sultan's mood was altogether uncertain, and so in a degree were his powers, for, after all, though there are Indian precedents, it hardly rests with the Khalif to upset the Mussulman law of succession. The temper of the people, which counts for something, though not much, was almost unknown, and had they been displeased, there are plenty of elements of disorder still surviving in Cairo and Alexandria. Lastly, by an ominous accident, Sir W. White had just died, and Great Britain was left for a moment in Constantinople without any representative either of experience or weight. In spite, however, of all these circumstances, the transfer of the throne was accomplished apparently without an effort, and Abbas, son of Tewfik, to-day, nine days after his father's death, will mount the Khedivial throne. The Sultan, influenced, it may be, simply by an honourable feeling that as he had sold the succession for a great price, he must adhere to his bargain, but more probably by the pressure of many fears, one of which is fear of Ismail— the only Turk outside the dynasty born in the purple and with a party behind him—acted. with unexpected prompti- tude, and by telegraph recognised. the right of Abbas Pasha to his father's full position, which may be best defined as that of hereditary Regent of Egypt, with all the powers the Sultan can confer, and liable to deposition only with the consent of Europe. The Sultan probably repented. a few hours afterwards, for he summoned Abbas Pasha to Constantinople to receive investiture there, a command which would have released all the waters of intrigue, and have cost Egypt at least £500,000. Abbas Pasha, however, was well advised, possibly by the Austrian Emperor himself; he had started from Vienna before the Sultan's message reached him ; he could not be seized en route with the British squadron so near ; and to-day, surrounded by British troops and hundreds of thousands of his countrymen, he will be proclaimed, in the great square of Cairo, absolute Sovereign of Egypt. The Sultan's re- pentance, if he repented, comes too late ; and without the Sultan, M. Ribot has no legal foothold even for remon- strance. The French Government, in recognising, and, in- deed, helping to appoint Tewfik, confirmed the validity of the firman changing the succession, and no one but the Khalif could hope to modify the age of maturity as settled by Mahommedan law. Abbas Pasha is Khedive, and there is nothing to do except accept the facts, which are,—that Egypt is in British occupation ; that its people have never been so prosperoui before; and that with a ruler still so young, an evacuation of the Valley would be ruinous to the bondholders, fatal to the improved systems not yet solidified, and most injurious to those poor fellaheen, who support on their patient backs the usurers, the Army of Occupation, the Khedivial throne, and all that army of functionaries of all nationalities who are ordered to assemble in the great square to welcome their new lord. For he is their new lord. The prevalent English idea that while we are in Egypt its Sovereign is only a dignified nobody, is incorrect, except in a very limited degree. No one in Egypt forgets that the British occupation may cease, and that then Abbas II., though his reign might not be long, would while it lasted be, both in theory and in practice, as absolute as Mehemet Ali. The occupation has not modified in the least the theoretic autocracy of the Egyptian ruler. Subject always to the " Sacred Law," which can always be interpreted in his favour, Abbas II., though a lad of seventeen, is in theory the Sultan's full representative, Regent for Abdul Hamid, an absolute monarch, with power of life and death over every subject. His father Ismail used this power constantly, issuing, it is believed, even secret decrees of death, as in the case of his corrupt Finance Minister, which, although so abhorrent to European ways, were nevertheless entirely legal. The details of Egyptian government are, of course, carried on by Ministers ; but they are responsible only to the Khedive, all their orders require the Khedive's signature, and not only in theory, but often in fact, are actually his orders. If a Minister dis- obeys, he can be dismissed at once, without either English or Turkish intervention—Nubar Pasha was so dismissed—and if he were afterwards executed, there would be no redress except through a sort of coup d'itat, a sentence of deposition extorted, as in Ismail's case, from the Sultan by all the guaranteeing Powers. Nor are these prerogatives in any way illusory, like the prerogatives of constitutional Sovereigns. The British Minister, Sir Evelyn Baring, is no doubt entitled to offer the Khedive advice, and while the British Army occupies Egypt, the advice must be ac- cepted, lest consequences should follow ; but Sir Evelyn does not interfere in details, or prohibit the Khedive from giving orders, often of the highest moment, to individual Ministers. On the contrary, his duty is to sup- port the Khedive in doing any act not clearly an inter- ference with the mission the Minister is seated in Cairo in order to fulfil. There are international agreements with the Treasury under which the Khedive can hardly waste money at discretion, or borrow heavily without endangering his throne ; but if Abbas II. liked to exercise personally the entire patronage of his State, to dismiss a Minister he disliked, or to make the fortune of any favourite he approved, it would not be the British Minister's place to interfere ; while if he showed a disposition to govern actively, and the power to do it well, Sir Evelyn would heartily approve. He is there to train the Sovereign as well as to guide his policy, and make him fit for the independence which is, in theory at all events, one day to be restored to him. It is a singular position, not only for the Minister, to whom a hundred Indian prece- dents have made it comparatively familiar, but for the young Khedive, to whom it must be pleasant or oppressive according to his character. If he is an essentially sub- missive man, as Tewfik was, conscious that he is not quite competent to hold his own against all enemies, the British Resident must appear to him in the light of a protector, a situation which has repeatedly occurred in India; and-he will feel the weight of the alien- authority no more than an English Permanent Under-Secretary feels that of the responsible Secretary of State. He will even, it may readily be believed, treat the British Minister occasionally as a convenient Jorkins, and escape from unpleasing impor- tunity by pleading the necessity of conciliating his infidel friend and upholder. If, on the other hand, he is a man of a strong, and especially a jealous character, who loves rule, and believes in himself, his hidden 'rage will be a per- petual torment, and may some day lead to a dangerous complication. The probabilities are, however, the other way. Ina hundred years of this double kind of rule in India, we can remember but two outbreaks against the advisory Power, that of Meer Cossim and that of the late Guicowar, and that is very fair evidence that Orientals find subordi- nate princedom at worst an endurable situation. There is nothing in the situation of Egypt to distinguish the Valley from an Indian Principality, except the international jealousies, so constantly and bitterly exhibited ; and Abbas II. may feel towards them as Tewfik undoubtedly did, that they add to instead of relieving the complexities of his position. You can make friends with one tutor, even if he is rather domineering, particularly if you have a hundred opportunities a month of being agree- able to him ; but friendship with five differing and discordant masters is an impossibility. Education does not modify the essential nature of Orientals, and a race like Mehemet Ali's may evolve almost any kind of Prince ; but we may fairly doubt, without being optimist, whether the difficulties which embarrass the English in Egypt will be increased by any action or aspirations of Abbas II., while the reason for our remaining in Egypt is undoubtedly improved. Tutelage seems more natural while the Sovereign is a lad, a fact, it is said, already recognised by the Arabic native Press. We only hope that Abbas will not be too facile, and so tempt his European guides to neglect the very difficult and worrying task of training which they are now called on to perform. We must play fair in Egypt, as everywhere else ; and even if we do not at heart believe that the English occupation will terminate for a generation or two, it is the duty of the all-powerful British Minister to see that, as far as his influence can help him, the native Sovereign shall develop into a competent ruler. He might, if he were, govern for himself, yet side strongly with the Power which had treated him so well ; and of the many alternative results which the occupation may produce, that would be by no means the worst. The Prince, to a certainty, will be surrounded by intriguers, by parasites, by slaves, by women bred in the harem ; but an Asiatic sometimes survives all that, and becomes a ruler with whom, in spite of his radically different modes of thought, a British Resident can work in the heartiest co-operation. One would like, as real guidance in such a speculation on the future, to know what this singular figure, a Mussulman Prince bred in Egypt but trained in a Viennese school for nobles, at once an autocrat and a dependant, an Asiatic and a man of the highest European training, thinks of it all, and especially what he dreams of as his future ; but we shall not know that, and probably he does not know himself.
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