17 DECEMBER 1937, Page 40

THE AMERICAN FACTOR.

It would indeed be astonishing if some of the developments I have mentioned, together with the anxiety concerning international politics, did not have a restraining effect upon some forms of activity. Nevertheless, as I have said, there is an under-current of optimism in the City, and I think it has some solid basis. In the case, for example, of the con- siderable fall in the price of commodities, it is felt that not only does this decline mark the clearing out of some unhealthy speculative positions but that the fall has now pretty well discounted any such setback as may have occurred in certain industries. Not only so, but it is also thought that stocks of certain commodities have now fallen to a more reasonable and even in some instances to a low level and, consequently, there is a very strong hope that before the new year has gone far some recovery in industrial activity in the States will have given a fresh fillip to the commodity markets. Much, of course, must depend upon developments in Washington policy, but those who believe that President Roosevelt has, before everything, the interests of his country at heart, reckon that his policy will be directed towards

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encouraging business confidence, while there is hope, too, that the conclusion of an Anglo-American trade agreement may prove a favourable influence upon international trade, and so upon industrial prospects.