A POLITICAL FORECAST.
[To THE EDITOR OF THE " SPECTATOIOJ Sin,—I fear the Unionists are indulging a dangerous hope that the cause of Home-rule is already finally defeated, It is the unexpected that happens, and popularity-seeking politicians have learned to wear their convictions so that scarcely any transformation scene ought to surprise us. I do not expect the following forecast to come true, but no .one can assert that it is impossible :- The General Election occurs in the autumn of the present year. All parties have foreseen it and prepared for it.
The proportion of Nationalists in. the Irish representation ♦ remains almost unchanged. Sixty of the Irish Members, being more than half, are pledged Parnellites. Mr. Gladstone -expects this and prepares for it by a reconciliation with Mr, Parnell,—the situation " draws iron tears down Parnell's cheek;" but Mr. Gladstone makes no public pledge, except that he will bring in such a measure of Home-rule as will satisfy the people of Ireland, so soon as he sees a prospect of carrying it.
Meantime, the English and Scotch Radicals have almost ceased to talk about Irish matters. Mr. Gladstone pledges himself to the Disestablishment of the Church of England, and promises to " keep an open mind" on the total repeal of the Vaccination Acts, and such a "reform" of the conspiracy laws as will legalise intimidation and boycotting when not .accompanied with actual violence.
He assails, as in 1885, appeals to the electorate to give lint such a majority as will make him independent of the Nationalists, and is again disappointed. On the meeting of the new Parliament, he proposes an amendment to the Address, to the effect that the Nationalist aspirations of the Irish people must he satisfied. This is debated for a fortnight, and • carried by a majority of one.
Lord Salisbury resigns, and the Queen sends for Mr. -Gladstone.
I go no further with my forecast. I do not believe that our prospects are so bad ; but nothing which has occurred in the :slightest degree diminishes the necessity of seeing to the registers, and doing everything to enlighten the constituencies -on the true nature of the question of Home-rule.
One more point for consideration. The Radicals talk of ." One man, one vote," and a more arithmetical distribution of Parliamentary seats. I care less than nothing about such -fads; but Union ists ought to reply : " Certainly ; provided that you consent to reduce the representation of Ireland to its fair proportion to the population of Ireland, and a little less, in view of its diminishing population."—I am, Sir, &e.,
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