TOPICS OF THE DAY.
THE EGYPTIAN CRISIS.
THE trouble in Egypt, always more complex than the public imagine, has suddenly been complicated still further by two discoveries,—one of the most pressing moment, and one of very great, though possibly more remote importance. The first is, that Europeans are not safe in the Nile Valley. It was supposed that they would be let alone, if only out of terror of ultimate consequences • but the Western Governments forgot both the disposition and the ignorance of the Egyptian populace. Like other Orientals, and with more reason, they hate the Euro- peans. They are told that the respectables among them are fattening on their taxes, drawing enormous salaries in order to help in extorting interest on fictitious public debts ; and they see that the non-respectables, the fifty thousand Greeks, Maltese, Levantines, and nondescripts who swarm in every Egyptian town, are either labourers competing with themselves or the scum of the earth, men much more vicious than themselves and much less industrious, yet earning or stealing larger incomes, and protected at every turn from the consequences of their conduct by the capitulations and Consular protection. They confuse all together, hate all alike, and the moment authority is suspended spring at the intruders' throats. It is hardly necessary to in- quire, under such circumstances, whether Arabi Pasha insti- gated an ilmeute or not. We incline to believe he did, in order to produce an exodus of the detested foreigners, and to convince Dervish Pasha, who had begun to hold high language, of his own sway over the mob ; but that is a matter of detail. What is certain is that the Arabs rose with their short clubs, that the police helped them, though the soldiers did not ; that twenty or thirty respectable Europeans, and perhaps ten times that number of labourers and loafers, were stabbed, bayoneted, or beaten to death ; and that such a feeling of terror was spread through all Europeans as to produce a panic-stricken flight from the country. In a few days Cairo was deserted, Alexandria was quitted by all who could obtain passages, and the remaining Europeans were driven into conceal- ment in their houses, the Consuls specially counselling them not to arm. The departures every day are counted by thousands, and as Europeans perform most of the banking, shop-keeping, commercial, and managing functions in Egypt, daily business has come to such a stand-still that the taxes cannot be collected, and the Controllers have sanctioned a partial respite of six months. The blow to Egypt is most severe, as the confidence of Europeans is permanently shaken, but the blow to the Western Powers is heavier still. So long as order was undisturbed they could proceed regularly, appeal to the European concert upon Lord Granville's plan, and when an agreement had been arrived at, so act as to secure permanent results. Insurrec- tion, however, leaves no time, it is imperative to punish defiant outrage, and France and England find their policy jeopardised by the risk of a sudden demand for the employ- ment of force. Hitherto, with a self-control quite wonderful in the face of the excited opinion of Paris and London, they have refrained from using it ; but if the Egyptian soldiers join the mob, they will have no option. We should say, on the whole, the soldiers would not join it, but their temper is uncertain ; there is a frightful risk, mentioned below, always present in the background ; and the soldiery, we greatly fear, are under that delusion as to the power of the Fleets which, to our amazement, we find prevalent among some of our contemporaries. Because Sir Beauchamp Seymour did not land his very few marines, and so bring on a purposeless fight in which he might have been defeated, the Fleet is pronounced by Egyptian corporals and London journalists impotent and useless. It is because it is so fearfully potent that Sir Beauchamp Seymour, fortunately a cool, as well as a gallant and decided commander, reserves its frightful powers for an extremity. Let the 10,000 Egyptian troops in Alexandria break into revolt and begin the dreaded massacre, and we venture to say they and the journalists will be fearfully undeceived. Within fifty minutes Alexandria will be begging for permission to exist on any terms, and the Western Powers will be under the necessity of providing a new Government, in place of the organisation destroyed by shells.
We trust and believe no such calamity will occur, but there is, as we said, a very great danger behind. Arabi Pasha has shown his hand in an unexpected direction, and it is quite possible that the ultimate expedient on which Europe has been relying, the landing of a Turkish corps d'armee, may be found excessively difficult, or, indeed, impossible. The ex- traordinary threat which Arabi Pasha made in the presence of the correspondent of the Daily News, and afterwards wrote down—that, if the Turks landed, he would pro- claim a Holy War—seemed at first unintelligible. Arabi Pasha has no more power to proclaim a " jehad," the most serious. of all Mussulman acts, than his own cup-bearer ; and if he did proclaim it as Minister of War, it would make no difference. It is, however, now believed at Constantinople that the threat was perfectly serious, and that Arabi, well aware of his fate should the Sultan treat him as a rebel, has decided to pro- claim the Shereef of Mecca Khalif, and himself his Com- mander-in-Chief. As we have repeatedly pointed out, this is the danger which most closely threatens the throne of the Sultan. The Shereef is the legitimate heir of the Khalifate ; the Arabs everywhere from Oman to Tangier are expecting the appearance of the " Mandi" or Imam, who is to restore Islam ; the name and fame of Arabi have gone abroad through- out the East, and if he took this step, Mecca, Arabia, Syria, and the whole South of the Mediterranean, would be in arms for the new Khalif, against the Infidel and the Turk. The Sultan, it is stated on good authority, sees the danger clearly, has ordered Dervish Pasha to "deal gently with Arabi," and will not, except under the strongest com- pulsion, run the risk, by sending troopi to crush that leader, of being pronounced an Infidel, and deposed by the whole Arab population. The mere struggle, even if he won it, would be fatal to his dream of becoming direct ruler of the reunited Mussulman world, and might shake his hold over every Mussulman not belonging directly by birth and speech to his own decaying clan. He may run the risk, rather than suffer Europe to act alone ; but he will hesitate and temporise to any extent, before he finally decides- The Western Powers, therefore, pressed by the danger of their people, and the clamour of their Parliaments, which understand the European, but not the Asiatic, half of the situation, may be compelled to use their own force, and in fact, conquer Egypt. Arabi, who is sure in such a case of protection in Arabia, which Europe cannot reach, might reply in the first instance, and, in our judgment, would reply, by wholesale massacre. He would be utterly desperate, for he would have offended the Sultan past redemption ; and the Sultan does not forget, as he has shown before this, that among his prerogatives is that of passing secret sentence of death upon any Mussulman declared by his Ulema dangerous to Islam.
The situation is, therefore, horribly complex, and Lord Granville is perfectly justified both in waiting and in refusing to discuss its possible outturn. It is folly to press him or Mr. Gladstone to say one definite word. If he says he will not land troops in Alexandria, the mob may take courage to commence a massacre, which Arabi Pasha, with his ulterior plans, would not put down by a fusillade of Arabs. If he says he will land, Arabi, whose cry is " Resist the Infidel I" and whose soldiers threatened to fire if sailors landed from the British Navy, may throw off his indecision, proclaim an Arab Khalif, and wrap the Eastern world in flames. The only possible policy is to organise a force against an emergency—the Indian Government can act secretly, if it will, and the Channel Fleet is creeping up fast from Gib- raltar—to press on the Sultan the absolute necessity of decision, and should the necessity arise, to strike silently and irresistibly, by which we mean, to signify to the Egyptian soldiery that if they do not maintain order, Alexandria will be levelled. There is no proof whatever that the Government is shrinking, or is unaware of the danger, though there is proof that it desires, if the Houses will only allow, to restore Tewfik through the Sultan, and termi- nate the crisis, if it is humanly possible, without an explosion which may affect half the world. The Spectator has main- tained and still maintains that ascendancy in Cairo is for Great Britain the whole "Eastern Question ;" but ascendancy is not to-day to be preserved by precipitate action, by shell- ing Alexandria while the troops are still orderly, or by landing a handful of marines and sailors, to cut their way to nowhere, through the loopholed streets of Arab Alex- andria. Do those who write this advice really know what they are asking Sir B. Seymour to do, or what a force of marines would be like, after an hour's struggle, in a city with- out a hill, against scores of thousands of invisible foes, pro- tected by loopholed houses and high court-yard walls?
Previous page
