TOPICS OF THE DAY.
THE EMPEROR FREDERICK. THE Great King has been buried with his fathers, first Emperor of his long line, and it is time to form an opinion as to the change made by his death in the political situation of Europe. It will not, we think, be found to be so great as in the first shock of the event was generally expected. The Emperor Frederick is undoubtedly a man strongly inclined towards peace, both by his character and his circumstances. Though a good officer, an excellent General, and a Hohenzollern who recognises thoroughly that the Army is "the base," as he himself says, of his State, he detests war, and has a strong distaste for the militarism which history and recent events have so developed in Prussia. He desires neither adventure, nor aggrandisement, nor a people living in their armour. He is essentially a pacific administrator, intent on improving the condition of his people, and careless of great enterprises ; and these tendencies are, of course, strengthened by his knowledge that his life will, in all human probability, be a short one. Old soldiers of repute rarely or never approve war—even Welling- ton abhorred it—and the new Emperor is, owing to his disease and his past achievements, precisely in the position of an old and great soldier who feels that the end is drawing near. If he can avoid war without losing honour or sacrificing national interests, we may be sure that he will avoid it ; but then, his power of securing that good end will be but limited. He is bound by all the responsibilities and agreements which bound his pre- decessor: he has accepted Prince Bismarck, as he himself says, as the " necessary " counsellor ; he will not—and, indeed, cannot—depart from the Austrian alliance, or the alliance with Italy ; and in those circumstances, rather than in his own character, lies the key of the position. Germany, we may be sure, will under his guidance attack no one—as, indeed, she would not have done had his father lived—but if Austria is attacked, Frederick I., like his father, is bound by the recent Treaties to active interference. The question, therefore, is, as it was before, whether Austria will be attacked ; and on this subject nothing whatever has occurred to clear up the situation. Indeed, it is, if anything, a little worse than it was, for the Czar was much under the influence of the determined character of his great- uncle, and will be told by his advisers that with an invalid upon the Throne, and a kind of interregnum existing in the Monarchy, the German Empire must of necessity be both weaker and more reluctant to engage in great under- takings. If, therefore, the Czar intends to move, he will not be deterred from moving by the change in the occupancy of the German Throne ; and that he does so intend, is a belief which is entertained at Sofia, which is officially admitted at Bucharest, which pressed upon the Emperor William as a possibility in his dying moments, and regulated his last counsel to his grandson, and which must, if recent accounts from Roumania are true, be weighing heavily upon Prince Bismarck. " Reuter " on Wednesday telegraphed from that capital an account of an incident which must in the main be true, or it would never have been allowed to cross the wires, and for which it would be difficult to find a precedent in European history. We give it textually :—" At a confidential meeting of the members of the majority in the Chamber, held on Saturday last, M. Bratiano produced a telegram received the preceding day from Prince Bismarck, in which the Imperial Chancellor expressed full appreciation of the judicious and patriotic manner in which the Minister had conducted the affairs of Roumania for twelve years, and requested him to reconsider his resignation at a moment of difficulty like the present, and remain at the head of public affairs. This tele- gram was taken very seriously by the members of the majority, particularly as M. Bratiano described the foreign situation as very critical." Germany has absolutely no known excuse, not even that of geographical position, for this interference in the domestic affairs of an independent people, and we may be sure that it would never have occurred without the gravest justification. Prince Bismarck must have learned that the Russian influence in Roumania had grown strong, and was being pressingly exerted, or he would never have adjured the " Austrian " Premier of the State to hold firm to his post. And M. Bratiano, who has governed for many years, must have felt that the Russian pressure upon him was excessive, or he never would have revealed to his majority, and therefore to the whole world, the closeness of his relations with the other side. The pressure of Russia on Roumania, without whose consent she cannot safely cross the Danube, is not a peaceful symptom, and if it is a war- like one, we cannot perceive what difference the peace-loving character of the Emperor Frederick can make in the situation. It is an excellent reason for suspending Russian preparations, for the Czar knows that while the Emperor lives Russia will not be attacked ; but if, in spite of that knowledge, he goes on, or allows his great servants to go on, making ready for war, then the situation remains unchanged. Now, as for the past six months, the decision rests with him, for he has only to roll back his troops from Bessarabia, and Europe will be lapped in peace. But if he advances, we may be quite sum that the Emperor Frederick, while there is breath in him to give an order, will fulfil every obligation of his Government, the first of which is "not to suffer Austria to become less than a first- class Power."
But, it will be said, the Emperor Frederick, being an able man, and a reflective one, and devoted to peace, may give a new tone, or even a new direction, to the whole policy of Europe, and induce Austria, most cautious of Powers, to make some further concessions to St. Petersburg. Possibly, nay, probably, if only time could be eliminated from the whole question. If the Emperor were in full health, it is conceivable that he could keep peace for a genera- tion, and this without parting with Prince Bismarck, People talk as if the great Chancellor only affected reverence for the Throne, and forget that he is now, as ever, "the vassal of the House of Hohenzollern," ready, if better may not be, to carry out its will. We do not doubt that, under other circumstances, the Emperor Frederick would become supreme, and materially change the policy of Central Europe ; but then, changes of that kind demand more than mental energy : they require time, care, conferences, the slow substitu- tion of new for older Ministers and Envoys. With the Emperor himself more conscious than any one of his true condition, with all eyes looking towards a future Sovereign, with the whole Administration saturated for seventeen years with one man's ideas, is it probable, or even possible, that any far-reaching changes can be made 1 We wish it, more especially as regards the internal policy of the German Empire, most sincerely. We have always looked forward to a time when an able monarch, using and not resign- ing the Royal authority, would give Germany an impetus towards what may be most easily described as a more civil life, would ask her to live the life of the house instead of the life of the barrack. Bat it is mere folly to assume, as things now stand, that Heaven has granted that prayer, or that the Emperor Frederick, whatever his ability, or his energy, or his wishes, can be enabled, even with Prince Bismarck's help, to do more than keep the machine from swaying as it proceeds along its course. It is the saddest of modern illustrations of the occasional irony of fate. The longed-for Emperor has arrived ; he is in the fullest command of his faculties ; no one resists, or thinks of resisting, his will ; and because of a bodily ailment he must be comparatively useless to the world, must flit, as it were, across the stage, the very incarnation of the idea of the Fate-stricken. An Emperor of Germany who receives Kings in compulsory silence! Think what it means.
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