J APAN has made good her claim to be the seventh
Great Power. There is something bewildering, almost uncanny, in the amazing force she has revealed in the battle, or series of battles, around Mukden, the im- pression made by her victory being intensified by a certain degree of unexpectedness. The Western world, though astounded, and perhaps slightly alarmed, by Togo's victories at sea, and by the result of the battle of Liao- yang—the first of which proved that an Asiatic Power could produce a fleet that in scientific completeness and every quality of fighting seamanship was the equal of any European fleet of its size, while the latter showed that her soldiers were equal not only in courage but in efficiency to any soldiers in the world—still imagined that it saw, even in the hour of Japanese success, certain signs of weakness. Experienced Staff officers in several countries, and there- fore with different biases, whispered that Marshal Oyama, though a " sound " general, was not a genius ; that he did not follow up his successes ; that Japanese movements, though wisely planned, had the defect of slowness ; and that if Kuropatkin could, as all Russians asserted, be re- inforced in time, the total result of the campaign might be only a stalemate. The Marshal remained quite silent, as did his superiors ; but on the Sha-ho and in Tokio the work of preparation went forward for weeks with an unhasting, unresting energy such as only the German Government has in the present cycle been able to dis- play. From Port Arthur and from the Island Empire herself armies were despatched to strengthen Oyama, according to some arranged plan, and with the armies were sent ample supplies of food, and such quantities of munitions, all of the most destructive kind, as perplex and worry even the German Staff. Where and how, is the inquiry, were they all accumulated ? Then when he was fully ready, selecting a moment when the weather had begun to clear, though the rivers to be crossed were still frozen, the Japanese Marshal struck hard, revealing a plan which from the first transcended and overpowered that of his opponent. Kuropatkin had endeavoured to protect himself by widening out the area he was defending, till at last he was believed to have covered a tract of ninety miles by fifty, and to have protected every point against probable attack by field works. Marshal Oyama, however, whose Intelligence Department is obviously as perfect as his departments of supply, knew, as Kuropatkin confesses, every move of his enemy ; and when the actual battles began the Russian General found himself assailed at every point by superior forces of troops always equal to his own, and for this battle animated, knowing as they did the history of the immediate past, by the confidence of victory. Slowly but implacably, with machine-like certainty, amidst awful losses of their own men, and still more awful slaughter of the enemy, the subordinate Japanese Generals day after day successfully pursued their task of driving in and enveloping the scattered Russian armies, till at last Kuropatkin, who had personally led two or three of his defensive attacks, recognised that his only alternatives were surrender or retreat. Not only was the slaughter unbearable, but his supply arrangements, as we read the accounts, had broken down, under the effects of hunger the well-proved Russian tenacity had reached its limits, and the men were surrendering by brigades. The Japanese report the capture of fifty thousand prisoners before the retreat had become a rout. With more than half his soldiers slain, wounded, or otherwise out of action, the Russian General ordered the relics of his armies to " retire " on Tieling, where he had prepared defensive works, and the men, broken up, dispirited, and exhausted, commenced a retreat for which the only parallel is the retreat from Moscow. The scene which followed is not yet clear, for we do not yet know how far the tremendous exertions of the ten days have exhausted the Japanese, who at points marched as swiftly as Napoleon's best troops, or where the army of Kawamura, known to exist, but still shrouded in a mist, really is ; but Tieling has been occupied, the Russians have retreated further North, and there are many signs to indicate that even if there has been no general surrender, no Sedan,'Kuropatkin's grand army is no longer an army in being. Japan, this Power that yesterday was ridiculed by every Russian, has crushed the strongest army which Russia, after a twelvemonth's warning, could produce on a battlefield chosen by herself. Europe scarcely even yet recognises how prodigious an influence this rise of a new Power on the edge of Asia, in the ocean which must decade by decade increase in importance till its freedom will preoccupy all maritime Powers as the freedom of the Atlantic does now, will exercise on her policy, her ambitions, and her commerce. Throw aside all apprehensions about the " yellow peril," leave China out of the calculation as sunk in irredeemable dotage, assume Japan to stand alone, and still Europe has to reckon with a Power which ten years hence will have twice Togo's fleet, and which has proved that wherever she can land an army, an army double its strength must be called out to render defeat of the defenders improbable.
Of the ideas, aspirations, and ultimate plans of that Power nothing, it may be said, is known ' • but of her capacities and her strength we now at least know something. We know that she can keep a secret for years, that her people will fight to the death at the word of command, that she has the European belief in science, and that she counts among her statesmen and soldiers men of the intellectual capacity to control and guide huge masses of trained men to any end she has decided on. No King thinks that he can conquer Japan ; no statesman imagines that he can set aside her vote in the Pacific or the Indian Ocean as a negligible quantity. She may not govern China, but all the long-devised European plans for gaining dominant influence in China or in the Archipelago must, without her permission, be abandoned. No State can hope to make of Kiao-chow a capital, or to announce that the valley of the Yangtse River is closed except to her own traders. The " open door " has a terrible guardian ; all Asia a potential advocate, whose voice if lifted, say in protest that yellow men and white men must be treated alike, must at least be heard.
Tremendous as the blow is to Russia, and far-reaching as its consequences must be, we adhere to the opinion wo expressed last week, that the Czar, unless coerced by the revolutionary forces, will not make peace. His own idea is clearly to retreat, if necessary, beyond Lake Baikal, and then reorganise his Army, and possibly his Administra- tion. That, he believes, will involve less danger for his dynasty than a peace on severe terms. It will not shock the Army or paralyse diplomatic action, and, besides, it evades two dangers of which last week we did not speak. While there is no peace—even if there be only an armed truce instead of a victory—no indemnity can be asked for, and the thought of the indemnity galls the ruling group at St. Petersburg as scarcely any territorial cession would do.
The cession of Manchuria, and the relinquishing of all claim to Korea, will not diminish the resources of Russia, while the payment of a hundred millions will weaken them further in their weakest place. Moreover, the Czar, we are con- vinced, still hopes for a revenge at sea, still looks forward, as he avowed a week ago, to the dominion of the Pacific ; and he remembers, as some of us do not, that a hundred millions would in Japanese hands purchase and fit out a mighty fleet, and that while he signs no peace Tokio can obtain battleships only by building them herself, which is a work of years.
There is no doubt a rumour afloat that his Majesty has some plan behind his hand, which it will concern Europe to watch, for offering not only peace but an alliance to Japan on such terms that the Japanese statesmen will eagerly embrace the proposal. We cannot credit the story. St. Petersburg may wish, as S a matter of pride and to escape future European control, to negotiate with Tokio direct; but what has she to offer for an alliance which must strengthen the one Power who even wishes to conquer Japan ? Vladivostok would be a poor bribe, and she has no other to give ; for if the other is ascendency in China, Japan can acquire that without arousing the hostility of all the maritime Powers. The project must be either intended to reassure financiers, who are beginning to manifest distrust, or be the dream of some over-clover journalist who knows Russia but not Japan. The last thing the ruling group in Tokio would think of is to tie the fortunes of their healthy State to those of a rival Power who, if not " a sick man," is at least an invalid who " has had a stroke." As we pointed out on a previous occasion, it is conceivable that Japan might entertain very good terms of peace from Russia were she to believe that our Alliance with her would not be renewed ; but between such action and a regular alliance with the Russians there is a world of difference. Since, however, it is now admitted that a change of Ministry will in no way affect the attitude of this country towards the renewal of our Alliance with Japan, this is a possibility which need not be considered.
UNIONIST PROSPECTS AT A DISSOLUTION.
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