W HETHER the Czar continues the war to the point of
exhaustion, or, to use Moltke's tremendous phrase, till Russia is " blanched " ; or whether, making peace or a long truce, he betakes himself to the reorganisa- tion of Russia, for which he has scarcely the mental power, the weight of Russia in international politics must for twenty years be grievously diminished. Her real policy for the last half-century has been to lay trains for future expansion, and that policy, if her present Government survives, must for a generation at least be suspended. Revolution, it is true, might pour new blood through her exhausted veins, and make her once more a formidable fighting power ; but failing revolution, her Government must devote itself to the reorganisation of the Army, the settlement of the terrible agrarian question, the con- cession of personal liberty, and the restoration of the national fortune. On every side she must be passive, as France was after Sedan, and during that passive period there will be changes of attitude in every one of the many States which she threatens, or upon which she impinges. Her word, for example, will no longer be final at Pekin. Whether the vast Empire of China passes under Japanese leadership, or accepts Anglo-Saxon guidance, or is ruled by the great Viceroys of the South, the dominance of Russia, which has been in the way of every " improvement," from the reorganisation of the Army to the construction of arterial railways and the exploitation of mineral wealth, will be for a period at an end. The half-dozen men who in Pekin continuously guide the Throne have been possessed with the fear that, if Russia were defied, she would exert her military force, and terminate at once the traditions and the profits of the Manchu dynasty. Relieved of that centralisation, or submission to some Power or combina- tion of Powers not animated by the Russian spirit or seeking Russian objects, which would involve radical change in all Chinese political methods. The struggle for the greatest market left in the world is certain to continue, but it will continuo without the interference of the Power which has hitherto secretly settled all the conditions of the race.
This of itself is a great change, and it is only one amongst many. There are many indications at Constantinople that Turkey, relieved for the moment from the pressure of her secular foe, is tempted to trust once more to the old policy of violence, which at heart Pashas believe to be the only one worthy of the children of the faith. The Divan may cease to diplomatise, and may strike at Bulgaria, at Greece, at its own rebels in Macedonia and Albania, with armies, and if it strikes with effect, will strike to slaughter and to enslave. That would in the end bring down on Turkey the forces of civilisation, and as those forces must have an agent, the actual work of expelling her from Europe must fall to Austria, who hopes always for Salonica, and a new trade, aided perhaps by Italy. Russia, will rage at the thought of losing her predominance in the Balkans ; but if Russia is paralysed, only Germany can interfere, and Germany is much more likely to bargain for her share of the spoil. No doubt also the vigour of Germany will be increased by the dobdcle at Mukden, for she will be relieved from that fear of invasion from two sides which ever since 1875 has been the controlling factor of her policy and her legislation. Her Government must, for example, attend more sincerely to the protests of her people against heavier taxation ; she may find in her savings on the Army the means of perfecting her Fleet ; and she will find the desire of her people for greater freedom and lighter discipline increased by the temporary extinction of that dread which has made her organisation as a barrack seem even to her intellectuals a necessary mis- fortune. As for France, her only course is to exchange her alliance with Russia for an alliance with Great Britain, and try to become the motive-power of a combination of herself, Great Britain, and America, which should steadily seek to secure the liberty of the nations and the general peace of the world. Even our own country, apart from this alliance, which grows naturally out of the entente cordiale, will be greatly affected by the suspension of ambition in Russia. She will be comparatively free from the fear of a European coalition, and will be released from that preoccupation—the danger of an invasion of India from the North—which has lain at the root of many of her difficulties in the reorganisation of national defence Her only dangerous land frontier— for America does not wish to obtain Canada by conquest— is that of India, and it will be for many years, as it were, protected instead of assailed by the huge but necessarily motionless mass in the North.
Many of these consequences may be slow in developing themselves, but they must, we think, follow if Russia is seriously beaten without being completely revolutionised. If, on the other hand, she is revolutionised, as so many expect, the result of Mukden may be very different, though at least as important to the world. A free Russia, whether under a new dynasty or under the old one chastened by a terrible experience, will still contain one hundred and fifty millions of white men all full of belief in the destiny of the Slav race, and still debarred from free or easy access to the waters of the world. Russia, ruled in accordance with her popular instincts, may—indeed, must—abandon the dream of dominating the Pacific ; but it would be to throw herself more earnestly, and therefore more success- fully, into plans for forcing an entrance into the Mediter- ranean, her natural outlet, the economic strength of Russia lying in her Southern provinces, and obtaining, perhaps by purchase, an ice-free entrance into the Atlantic. There is a possibility of half-a-dozen wars in those two projects; yet it is certain that if Russians were Englishmen, or Frenchmen, or Germans, those are the two which would influence every statesman and inflame every popular agitator. They would never consent to sit down imprisoned ; and we cannot conceive why the enormous and steadily multiplying Slav race, when once it has released itself from internal oppression, should be expected to sit down either. These, however, are the questions and dangers of the future. For the moment the paralysis of Russia must release China, Turkey, Germany, and Great Britain from enormous pressure, must solidify the entente cordiale with France, and ought, therefore, to give humanity a respite from its present armed truce. It may not, for there is a black cloud gathering in European Turkey ; but if diplomacy has any executive power—has, that is, the power of making dynasties and peoples act reasonably towards each other—it ought.
THE NATION AND THE AUXILIARIES.
Previous page
