Political commentary
A military by-election
Geoffrey Wheatcroft
Beaconsfield Tn modern naval parlance a by-election is 1 the run-up to the big match. After one gallant defeat and three famous victories the Liberal-SDP Alliance now have two more run-ups, here at Beaconsfield next Thursday and then a week later at Mitcham and Morden where Mr Bruce Douglas- Mann has quixotically asked'the voters who elected him in the Labour interest if they want him to stay on as a Social Democrat. Maybe all too quixotically: at the last elec- tion he had a majority of 618 and the Liberal (or proto-Alliance) candidate had 8.9 per cent of the poll. lf, as seems likely, Mr Douglas-Mann doesn't make it back to Westminster it may not gravely affect the parliamentary balance, but it is hard to see his new party graciously handing him another seat.
The Beaconsfield by-election is caused by the death of Sir Ronald Bell, a likeable man and an interesting one. He perplexed those who like politicians to be easily classifiable on a spectrum of Left-to-Right. He held Powellite views on immigration, and had a perverse sympathy for the cause of white supremacy in southern Africa. But there were just two Tory MPs who had a wholly consistent liberal record of voting on the 'Home Office' reforms of the 1960s: divorce, homosexuality, abortion and capital punishment. It is no surprise to say that one was Sir Ian Gilmour. The other bets could be won with the fact — was Ronald Bell. He was saluted in Labour Weekly under the headline 'Death of a Neo- Nazi'.
One way or the other Bell's views did not affect his majority. The Tory vote dropped from 58.7 per cent of the poll in 1970 to below half in the 1974 elections, before returning to 61.7 per cent last time with a majority of 21,495, one of the safest Tory seats around. This is Farther Metroland, a countryside of once small and pretty, now overgrown villages such as Stoke Poges. There are no great estates or even large farms. Country houses here are rhodo- dendron-embowered pleasure domes, names evocative of Edwardian and Georgian weekends: Taplow and Cliveden. The Chilterns and Thames valley haven't been, properly speaking, rural for two generations. The countryside is well and truly embourgeoise. The Conservatives can- vassed down a lane of recent bijou residences. Beyond the houses on one side was rolling pasture where sheep noisily grazed. On the other was a new industrial estate about the smoke from whose chimneys a voter complained to the can- didate.
Old Beaconsfield town with its antique shops is more typical of the seat than the northern fringes of Slough with factories, housing estates and a hardcore Labour vote. Just as the Hungry Thirties were a time of increasing prosperity for most of the country, so here the present recession has barely obtruded. Unemployment is of course higher than it was three years ago; and some small businesses have gone under. But for all that unemployment at 7 per cent is low by national standards.
Not many months ago the Alliance might have hoped to overturn even a majority as large as Bell's. Other things being equal they might still expect to make a good showing among the professional and managerial classes here. There is no great clash of personalities. The three main par- ties have fielded curiously lookalike con- didates, all Oxonian: the Conservative, Mr Tim (sic) Smith, 34, Harrow and St Peter's, a chartered accountant; the Liberal Mr Paul Tyler, 40, Sherborne and Exeter, a sometime newspaper executive and plan- ning adviser to the Royal Institute of British Architects; Labour, Mr Anthony Blair, Fet- tes and St John's, a barrister and Fabian.
All are of course apparatchiki with long service to their parties. Two have actually sat in Parliament before. Mr Tyler repre- sented Bodmin on a handful majority bet- ween February and October 1974. Mr Smith had the distinction of winning a min- ing seat, Ashfield, though that was in the special circumstances of Mr David Mar- quand's emigration in 1977. (By look-alike I do not mean that they are physically iden- tical but that, if one did not know which was which, it would be impossible to fit candidate to party.) Other things being equal ... but they are not equal. As we drive through Farnham Common one house has the white ensign flying above its front door. No one knows quite what effect the Crisis will have on the election, only that it will be generally favourable to the Tories. So much is ob- vious from opinion polls both national giving Mrs Thatcher 48 per cent last weekend — and local — more than three- quarters of the voters here support an assault on the Falklands.
It is no surprise that Mr Blair has had a rough time on the housing estates. The Sun- reading Imperialist working class have had nothing like this to cheer about for years. They despise the Labour Party's equivoca- tions. In actual matter of fact, as football managers say, it would be hard to distinguish clearly among the three can- didates' positions on the Falklands. Mr Smith is in favour of military action but seems to be as confused as any Tory — out- side the small band of ultras — as to what the outcome should be. Mr Blair also stifi. ports the task force, believes that Great Bri- tain is in the right — not a taxing thing to believe — but is cautious about what is militarily feasible. It may be that the Alliance is the im- mediate political victim of the war. Labour patriots will most likely stay at home rather than defect. For Mr Tyler the question is more tricky. It is not quite that the elec- torate rejects Liberal policy on the Falklands, whatever it may be, but that the Crisis has diffused interest in the Alliance. At such a time disgruntled Tories may staY loyal to their party, or they too may staY at home, but that is just as fatal for the Alliance. Certainly the Crisis is much easier for the Tory to campaign through than for his °13,- ponents. In the pub at Wexham special: 'Phish and Phrench Phries' — the Liberal candidate is joined by the publican, a very large man with mutton-ch°P, whiskers and a Lancashire accent. `11 you're elected I hope you'll get off Your f...ing arse.' Don't worry, I know I've got a f...ing job to do,' replies Mr Tyler, swear" ing at least as convincingly as Mrs Shirley Williams. But when asked about hanging be knows this is no vote for him; the more 9), when mine host addresses us on the subject of Johnny Gaucho. Afterwards Mr Tyler says, correctly, that the war is a double imponderable. No one's quite sure how the national mood will settle down; and then no one knows what course events in the South Atlantic, or on the East River, will take. There is a plausible argu- ment that it cuts both ways for Mrs Thai!' cher. Black Week or the Relief of Mafel": ing, the people will fall in behind the"" leader. Mrs Thatcher can choose the tinting °.f c her big match. The possibility exists that I' things go very well indeed, she maY be tempted to call a Khaki election (or Navy blue, or Marine camouflage). The outcome at Beaconsfield is a foregone conclusion' not worth betting on. More significant than bookmaker's odds is the number of hoPe- fuls who applied for the respective nornIrl,a; tions: Liberals nine, Tories 303. But t`!ii majority will be very significant, and it wid be interesting to see who takes see°21.,, place; it was Labour at the last election but Liberals previously. The precise outcome will no doubt be closely pored over by the Prime Minister, her government and her distinguished advisers.
More trivial events than the Fabo--0 Crisis have decided the fate of nations. 'I, Harold Wilson still believes that he won ni 1966 partly on a swell of patriotism after England won the World Cup. This surninie, it looks as though England will not be tn ing part in the World Cup, with grate() games to play. An election this year is ni more than a mere possibility, but it IMP, not be ruled out. And if, after all that Ilet government has gone through, Mrs Tha cher were to win another term as a result .°_, exotic and unpredicted events it would In deed be the supreme irony.
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