THE SUPPLY OF FOREIGN WHEAT, AND HOME PRICES. THE last
week or ten days having consisted chiefly of tine weather, the farmers have been enabled toget in a large portion of the harvest, and much must have been housed in fair condition. This change of the weather has been exceedingly seasonable, and tends materially to relieve the pub.. lie mind of the apprehensions of any extremity of dearth.
It remains, then, more dispassionately to consider whether any foreign supply will be requisite, and to what extent. During the last three years, foreign Wheat has been entered for home consumption as follows :— In 1825 . . . . . 525,231 quarters 1826 . . . . 315,892 1827 . . . . . 572,733 besides Oats, Barley, Sze. In these years, the harvests were accounted of an average quantity and good quality. This year, such cannot be the case ; and a foreign supply will consequently be required, exceeding 500,000 quarters.
The next consideration is the price at which this supply can be pro- cured Ins the late plentiful years, the medium quality of wheat has cost here in the bonded warehouses about 408. the quarter. The bad weather having extended to the Continent, and a demand arisen, the price is now full 5o.s. If we suppose that the price shall settle at 50s. for the average quality of wheat, saleable in the bonded warehouses here, in order to admit this to consumption without loss, an average price for home wheat of 68e. to 69s. will be necessary ; for not till the average rises to these rates, does the duty lower to 18e. 84 , which being deducted from CBs. to Ns. leaves a price, in bond as above named, of about 50.s.
An average price of 68s, will make the finest wheat worth in the market about 78s., and the worst about 58e. ; and the quartern loaf about ten- pence.
This is the price of wheat which must prevail, at the least during tile ensuing twelve months. It is the necessary condition of obtaining a foreign supply under the present law. Only one of the following three causes can prevent this value of wheat prevailing—either the price of wheat must fall on the Continent below the cost of 508. placed here, which is not likely ; or the home produce must be found to be fully equal to the consumption, which is less likely ; or lastly, the Government must dis- pense with the duty, which would be to leave the agricultural interest to suffer from diminished crops with the prices of abundant ones.
Even if the cost of foreign wheat should lower to the level of late years of general plenty-40.s., the selling price, in bond—this would require, to allow an entry for home consumption, an average here of 63s. to 64s., at which the duty is 23s. 811., leaving then about the 408. required.
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