POLITICAL COMMENTARY

The conspirators in Act Three

HUGH MACPHERSON

There is an amusing little parlour game much favoured by politicians. It is called `Let's kill the Leader', and, when played by Labour loyalists, it begins 'Supposing Harold Wilson were to go under a bus . Needless to say ex-prime ministers do not usually find themselves in 'much danger of experiencing such a vulgar demise. They are much more liable to be done to death by a shining limousine. Indeed, in the case of Mr Wilson, such is the success of his literary efforts that he is much. more likely to fall into a Rolls-Royce than under one. And that is just the question that has been asked of late in the hostelries of the House: has-Mr Wilson lost heart for the political fight?

Mr Wilson has acted swiftly to rebut such rumours. Impressive accounts of his industry have surfaced, and he has poured scorn on the suggestion that he has neglected his leadership duties for the calls of authorship. For all that a certain discontent remains. It was perhaps to be expected once the shock of election defeat had worn off. And naturally enough, when troubles arise for Mr Wilson one man who takes an immediate interest is Mr James Callaghan. His lieutenants have made sure his name, not to mention his multifarious good deeds, is kept before every influential section of the party.

Just 'how assiduously they have worked may be judged from a diverting little incident which took place recently at a gathering of executives of the Amalgamated Union of Engineering Workers. One lively fellow ex- pressed his concern that Mr Robert Carr had been asked to write on industrial re- lations for the December issue of the union journal. 'We'll be having Jim Callaghan neYte, he merrily quipped. A stony silence ensued. For Mr Callaghan's contribution to the January issue, lamenting the Govern- ment's sins, was already in print.

Mr Callaghan has been putting the position. to those in the party who lend a sympathetic ear, as follows: should he enter the next election under Mr Wilson then his hopes of ever being prime minister are finished. For, assuming that the Tories do not call an election until after four years of office, he would then he si \ty-mo. In a Labour defeat his head would roll with Mr Wilson's.

Mr Callaghan is also aware that no party Will change its leader in the run-up to -an election. If he 'does move then it must be within the next two years. And he needs an issue. It is not enough to wait till Mr Wilson is out of the country. say to collect the Nobel Prize for Literature. and then have a Kreinlin-style coup. Just such an issue could be before the Commons this week in the debates on the Common Market.

That is not to say, of course, that it will he the issue. But it is an option that Mr Callaghan has, no. doubt, kept open just as he keeps a lively interest in the question of industrial relations. When asked about the Common Market during his stay at the Home Office he was wont to reply. 'I'm a cobbler and I stick to my last'. That un- committed bit of old cobblers will certainly he of some use to him if it over came to a split over entry in the Labour ranks. There is however one nasty flaw in any hopes Mr Callaghan may nurture. No matter what terms Mr Rippon may negotiate, if the majority of the Parliamentary Labour party is against entry Mr Callaghan will find the figure of Mr Wilson standing shoulder to shoulder with him against mixing with the foreign brood.

Still Mr Callaghan, like the good politician he is. keeps all the options open. He has established a stronghold at Transport House as chairman of the Home Policy Committee, and as the friend of Sir Harry Nicholas, the party's general secretary. Many people were under the impression that Sir Harry was a temporary appointment till after the elec- tion. Sir Harry would deny this and as long as he is there Mr Callaghan has a powerful ally. He could also be keeping the position warm should Mr Callaghan need a comfort- able billet in the future. To suggest such a thing to Mr Callaghan would indeed incur his wrath but there are those in the Labour party who think along these lines. Indeed there are some in the party leadership who take such a possibility so seriously that a delegation to Sir Harry suggesting that he should perhaps consider retirement might be on its way before very long.

And there are those in the National Executive of the Labour party who would go to elaborate lengths to make sure that Mr Callaghan never becomes leader. One remarked: 'The trouble with Jim is that he stands for nothing except that which makes him popular'. Others, of a liberal turn of mind, have not forgotten the occasion in the National Executive when they proposed that the Commonwealth Immigrants Bill. 1968, should he amended so that East African Asians, holding British passports, he allowed to take up some of the unused quota of entry permits. Mr Callaghan told them sternly that they were 'voting to let more coloured people into the country'.

The politician's politician—which is how Mr Callaghan is often regarded—has far too much experience to imagine- that an opportunity to grab the leadership of a major political party can he manufactured or even predicted. Most leaders of the Labour party—and for that matter the Con-

servativer---arrived almost fortuitously. • For all that, ambitious politicians dream of the dramatic party kill. One of the most compulsive pieces of television in years, for anyone interested in politics, was recently provided by Mr Enoch Powell. He described the attempt by a group of con- spirators, of which he was one, to persuade Rab Butler to seize the Prime Ministership by politically dispatching Sir Alec. Butler simply had to refuse to serve under his rival.

me Powell, since he was clearly excited at the memory, was at his most chilling. (And I have ever maintained that had he chosen a more conventionally theatrical career Hammer Films would have made a for- tune.) He was also elated. He had been present at that most rare moment when a clean political coup of the greatest magnitude was in the ofling. Also Mr Powell could not conceal his contempt at the indecision of the worthy man who is now Master of Trinity. For the cold shiver of the political kill had run throughout the group and had not found in Lord Butler a spine to run up.

The same inability to make the final kill may be present in Mr Callaghan—although few would suspect it. Some people close to Mr Wilson feel that he faltered when the then Prime Minister was at his weakest in May 1969. That was when the proposed trade union legislation fell apart and Mr Callaghan finally emerged from the political shadows where he had languished since devaluation had forced him from the Treasury. Perhaps he does lack the killer instinct.

Even if that is the case Mr Callaghan could still change the course of political history both for his country and his party. If he chose to move for the leadership of the Labour party on the issue of the Com- mon Market., perhaps as a last throw, he might well drive Mr Wilson into outright opposition as a counter-move. Who knows— it could swing the entire issue?

On the other hand any precipitate move on the leadership by Mr Callaghan might strengthen the hand of Mr Wilson. The Labour party seems unwilling to indulge in the fratricide of the 'fifties and the other contenders are bunched together. To be identified with causing party divisions could be fatal to the unmasked plotter.

The situation is well illustrated in the early Verdi opera Ernani if one dare men- tion such a thing on these pages). In Act 3 conspirators are gathered outside the tomb of the EMperor Charlemagne determined to assassinate Don Carlo. King of Spain. Cannon shots are heard announcing the choice of a new Holy Roman Emperor. Simultaneously a noise is heard in the tomb and the superstitious conspirators think it is the ghost of Charlemagne. But it is not. It is Don Carlo who steps out, announces him- self the new Emperor, and condemns the lot of them.

Anyone thinking of joining Mr Callaghan in a possible last tilt at the leadership could well pop along and see the opera before gathering prematurely at Mr Wilson's political tomb. But they should notice one place where the analogy breaks down. In the opera the Emperor relents and pardons everyone. They could not expect the same from Mr Wilson.