GENERAL SMUTS ON THE WAR
simplicity. At the end of the huge room a small tribune or plat- form had been arranged. The great South African, on his entry, was received with acclamation. In his clear and perfect English
he addressed the two chambers for the space of fifty minutes. It
was not that the words he uttered, or the careful phrases which he used, added anything to the stark clarity of a situation of which all are today lucidly aware. It was that from the width and depth of his experience he confirmed the principles and the realities which, after three years of war, we have at last come to learn.
In particular, he put one phase of the war in needed perspective by pointing out that the whole of our misfortunes in the East flowed directly from the fall of France and the consequent cession of Indo- China to Japan. That opened the door which we had believed, and were entitled to believe, would be always closed, and through it poured the flood of aggression to Malaya, Singapore and Burma. That is incontrovertibly true and it needed saying.
The speech is not to be pronounced a great oration, in the sense that some of Mr. Churchill's speeches have been great orations ; but it was an invaluable survey of the war by this veteran of three war, " this man of calm and discernment," who had come to bring to the representatives of the British people words of praise,
comfort, encouragement and advice. General Smuts referred
to himself at the outset as a mythical figure from a bygone age. Mythical certainly, since around that sturdy head has wheeled the history of fifty years ; but bygone most assuredly not, since General Smuts has always been, and will always remain, a prophet of the future. No man has greater right than he to contend that
the Treaty of Versailles was no more than an armistice, since
he alone of the leading statesmen at the Paris Conference forecast at the time that our instruments of peace would forge a second German war. No man can speak with greater weight of the meaning and sincerity of our Commonwealth of Nations, or of the splendid tasks which still lie before us. No man is better qualified to warn us against the error of "over-preparation "—it was significant that that passage of the speech elicited the loudest ' cheers of all, except perhaps the speaker's eulogy of the Prime Minister.—or to suggest that the best strategic plans may prove futile if they come too late. And, above all, from no man do words of approbation mean more. " This great Commonwealth," he said, " still stands unshaken by the storm." " Glory," he said, " has not departed from this land. This is its glory : to have stood in the breach." It is impressive to receive such tributes from such a man.
In looking to the future, General Smuts spoke of the remarkable increase in the general sense of co-operation. He pointed to the advance in thought and feeling owing to which the vague term "The League of Nations" had been superseded by the more concrete concept of " The United Nations." He referred to our past efforts in international governance as " too vague and too ambitious." Such remarks have been made by other people in other connexions. Yet when a man who is both an idealist and a lawyer, both a strategist and a statesman, draws such distinctions on so symbolic an occasion, his definitions become events in the mind. It was indeed a great occasion, in that it united memories with hopes. It reminded us that our past was not inglorious, and that our present was superb. And it convinced us that, guided by the same principles of tolerance and power, we could face without a tremor the tremendous responsibilities which in the future will be ours, no less in the national than in the international field.
Ebb and Flow in Russia
After a week of racking anxiety, Stalingrad, which when we last wrote seemed relatively secure, is still in Russian hands, and though important positions, including the great Djerjinsky tractor works, have been lost some ground has been won back and the attack is, temporarily at least, at a standstill. But the Germans are dangerously near the Volga, if indeed they have not reached it at some points, and the passage of Russian reinforcements and supplies from the east bank to the west is gravely imperilled by constant Luftwaffe attacks. But the weather has broken and made the Luftwaffe's operations more difficult, while the relief army moving towards Stalingrad from the north is making some progress, and the Germans • are obviously nervous about impending Russian offensives farther north. The demands for a diversionary operation by Russia's allies, on which Moscow is becoming increasingly outspoken, may not long remain unsatisfied if Vichy prognostications are to be accepted. These have shifted from the conviction that an attack was about to be launched on Dakar to the prediction of vast Allied operations beginning with landings on the West Coast of Africa and ending in an advance through the heart of North Africa to take Rommel in the rear. On all that events will cast due light in due time. It is clear that the enemy is gravely apprehensive about developments in Africa and completely uninformed about their nature and direction. That, so far as it goes, is a satisfactory situation.
Towards Crisis in France The situation in France appears to be drifting towards a crisis the nature and outcome of which cannot be predicted. Laval, with a German goad penetrating his person daily more deeply, is alter- nating between appeal and menace. Hitler insists on the trans- portation of 15o,000 skilled workers to Germany. All the forms of pressure so far applied appear not to have secured 5o,000. Not long remains for the production of the balance. So the workers at the Gnome-Rhone works have apparently been told that if they refuse to go to Germany they will be shot, while, in another key, great play is made with Hitler's great benevolence in agreeing that French wives may join their husbands who are prisoners-of-war in Germany—provided that the wives work for Germany when they get there. It is not surprising that the demands have led to strikes and riots in many centres, notably at Lyons, where considerable bloodshed resulted. All the evidence available 'suggests that hatred of Germany (with love of Britain as a consequent rather than a primary emotion) is growing steadily in both Occupied and Un- occupied France ; but unarmed men in a country abundantly staffed with both native and foreign police and troops are not capable of an organised rising. But the situation may easily become difficult enough to unseat Laval and compel the Germans to assume decisive, if still indirect, authority in Vichy France. They will not do that unless forced. for they realise as well as anyone what effect it might have on the connexion between the African colonies and Vichy. That is not a negligible matter just now.
Bombing by Day Bomber Command abundantly deserves the distinction conferred % on it by the receipt of a special message of congratulation from the Cabinet in respect of the signally successful raid on the Creusot Battleships and U-boats It was no doubt not an accident that Trafalgar Day was chosen for the public announcement that the two 35,000-ton battleships ` Anson ' and ` Howe ' are now (and must have been for some weeks) at sea with the Fleet. That means a most notable accession of strength and marks the completion of the 1937 battleship programme, which included in addition to the two latest additions to the Fleet the ` King George V ' and the ' Duke of York,' which have been in commission for over a year, and the ill-fated 'Prince of Wales.' The four ships make a formidable squadron, but the announcement that Italy now has four 35,000-ton battleships in commission, the damaged Littorio ' being apparently now fit for action, and the belief that Japan possesses an unknown number of 45,000-ton warships, make it necessary that vessels of the same type laid down since 1937 shall be completed with the maximum speed possible. Mr. Alexander's unexpected announcement that 530 U-boats have so far been sunk or damaged (178 were destroyed in the course of the last war) gives further ground for encouragement, but note • must be taken that vessels damaged, some of them repairable, are included, and that in spite of such a rate of destruction U-boat successes were such, no more than three months ago, that this could be described by the Prime Minister as the supreme danger to the Allied cause. Things have improved somewhat since then, and the measures taken by the United Nations on the west coast of Africa will help further, but the very figures Mr. Alexander quoted demonstrate the remarkable capacity of the enemy for ship- building and crew-training. The danger is reduced, but very far from dispelled. works by Lancaster heavy bombers last week. To have flown to a point 270 miles south-east of Paris in broad daylight, carried out the appointed mission and returned to base with the loss of a single machine out of 94 is an achievement sufficient in itself to make the flight historic, quite apart from the, importance of the damage inflicted. And the damage was, in fact, immense.. It appears clear that the largest armament works in France, now serving Germany exclusively, have been put almost completely out of action, and the same is probably true of a great electrical trans- former plant close by, serving many industrial undertakings as well as the Creusot works themselves. This follows the hardly less spectacular success of the Ameiican Flying Fortresses, which in a raid on industrial districts round Lille a week earlier destroyed 48 enemy machines and probably destroyed 38 more, for the loss of four bombers out of 115. To this must be added, of course, the damage done to ground targets which were the objective of the raid. The idea of a combination of this precision-bombing by day with " cascade-bombing " by night opens up great possibilities, but for anything like complete success perfect weather-conditions are demanded. That is why such enterprises are less frequent than might be wished.
New Indian Proposals Two suggestions pointing to a solution of the Indian deadlock have been made independently and almost simultaneously this week in London and in India. Speaking in a debate in the House of Lords on Tuesday Lord Samuel urged that instead of the Viceroy acting virtually as Prime Minister, as he does at present, he become constitutionally simply the representative of the Sovereign in India, and as such invite an Indian to assume the office of Prime Minister and form a representative Indian Cabinet in consultation with him- self. To that Lord Simon replied unhelpfully that the difficulties in the way of such a solution were greater than they seemed. On Wednesday Mr. Rajagopalachari at New Delhi made substantially the same proposal, but with the much more questionable addendum that after a provisional National Government, which he was con- vinced both Congress and Moslem representatives would join, had been formed on these lines a general election should be held and the Government be made responsible to the Legislature thus con- stituted. This would involve piactically those great constitutional changes which Sir Stafford Cripps, when in India, insisted were not possible in war-time. Sir Stafford may have been wrong, but this is a case where it is perfectly practicable to take one step, the step defined by Lord Samuel and Mr. Rajagopalachari in common, first and still go on subsequently, if thought desirable, to the rest of the Madras leader's scheme. It is taken for granted that under either proposal the Commander-in-Chief would be supreme in his own sphere for the period of the war.
Better Coal News
The coal-gap is being closed from both ends—by better pro- duction in the mines and better, which means less, consumption, both industrial and domestic. That is as it should be, but the goal is by no means attained yet. Fortunately, the possibilities are not yet exhausted. The miners, probably, are at least as much influenced by the bonus scheme adopted on the recommendation of the Greene Committee (which has received too little credit for this part of its work) as by the platform exhortations of various Ministers, and though as a whole they produced in September 4,076,100 tons as against a target figure of 4,173,000 tons—a difference of less than foo,000 tons—only five out of 22 districts, and those among the smallest, actually attained their district target and secured bonuses. Some at least of the remaining 17 may be expected to reach the bonus-level in October. The effort exerted by the miners merits a response at least proportionate on the part of the consumer. Things are moving that way, and the fact that the gap is being reduced should be an effective stimulus towards its elimination. It is obvious, from the figures now available, that elimination is not impossible ; and what is possible is only a matter of determination and some sacrifice.
