The last step
It was too much to expect that nine years of war in Lebanon would end abruptly after nine days of discussion in Lausanne. The implication of the Lebanese con- ference's failure for both Lebanon and the Middle East is that no single power can force a peace settlement on people who will not accept peace at any price. Israel, the United States and Syria in turn have at- tempted to bring their own forms of peace to Lebanon. Each has failed miserably. Syria demonstrated that it could force Lebanon to abandon its 17 May 1983 troop withdrawal agreement with Israel and showed Lebanon that it could not rely on the United States to save it from Syrian domination. It showed also that it could bring Lebanon's recalcitrant sectarian leaders to the conference table. But not even Syria could make the Lebanese drink together from the cup of peace.
The Pax Syriana in Lebanon has eluded Syrian President Hafez al-Assad, for much the same reason the Pax Americana failed in Lebanon in particular and in the Middle East in General. Syria attempted to ignore the fact that it is not the only player in the game.
The failure to achieve a Lebanese settle- ment in Lausanne is only a small part of a diplomatic failure to achieve peace between Israel and the Arabs since the October 1973 Arab-Israeli war. There was an attempt to find a comprehensive settlement to the regional conflicts, which took account of the role of both superpowers, at the Middle. East Peace Conference in Geneva in December 1973. After a brief opening ses- sion, the conference adjourned, never to reconvene, despite President Jimmy Carter's brief flirtation with the idea and with Syrian President Assad in May 1977. In 1974, the Secretary of State, Henry Kiss- inger, abandoned the 'comprehensive' ap- proach in favour of partial settlements, his `step by step' diplomacy, which would lead ultimately to the Egyptian-Israeli Treaty of 1979. Lausanne this week was the last faltering step in the effort to make separate peace agreements.
The United States adopted 'step by step' E went along primarily to exclude the Soviet Union from Middle East negotiations. gypt with the approach, as Syria did briefly in May 1974 when it signed a Golan disengage- ment of forces agreement with Israel. Egypt carried the process to its logical conclusion, but Syria quickly opted out, effectively stalling the process. The United States and Israel, as they had excluded the Soviet Union from regional diplomacy, attempted to keep Syria out of a Lebanese settlement last year when it compelled Lebanon to sign the 17 May accord. Syria forced Lebanon to tear up the ac- cord, but it followed suit by committing an error similar to that of the US and Israel: pretending it could force peace on its terms to a Lebanon partially occupied by Israeli troops at a time when the Lebanese Chris- tian community's largest militia believes it can rely on Israel to prevent Syria reaping the harvest of the Lebanon policy. Now they will wait, and many Lebanese will die in the meantime, for the regional balance to shift back to Israel's favour.
Syria has proved that it can block any set- tlement in Lebanon and, by extension, in the region. King Hussein of Jordan took the hint and told the New York Times he would not participate in American- sponsored talks with Israel. 'One has to be a realist,' he said: 'It has cost us a lot. US credibility has suffered, but so have those who have believed in the US.' Hus- sein has no wish to join President Gemayel on the chopping block, while American forces are 'redeployed' further away from America's allies. Hussein's rejection of a separate West Bank settlement with Israel was one of the victories Syria wanted out of Lebanon. Its next goal is Egyptian cancella- tion of Camp David, a less likely prospect, since Syria cannot dominate Egypt the way it can tiny Lebanon and Jordan.
Syria discovered in Lausanne that its diplomacy has limitations: its arms in the hands of Lebanese Druze and Muslims can prevent separate deals with Israel, but they cannot force the Lebanese to accept a Syrian peace. For Syria and Israel, it may be enough for the time being to have denied each other full control of Lebanon. It is the Lebanese, however, who pay the price for being unable to become full surrogates of one powerful occupying neighbour or the other. The United States can no longer pre- tend to offer Lebanon, or any other small Arab country, a third option. To do so, the US would have to invite the Soviet Union back to the negotiating table. Ignoring the major participants in the conflict whether Israel, the Palestinians, Syria or the Soviet Union — can only prolong the agony. The events of the last month show that in the Middle East, anyone can make war. But everyone will be needed to make peace.
'I think it's a Roman flying picket.'
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