Hopes and Fears in China I N spite of the ominous
events in Shanghai, the Government have had a notable success for their policy of conciliation in concluding the Hankow .agree- ment with Mr. Chen. Sir Austen Chamberlain deserved the hearty congratulations he received from all parties in the House of Commons. Whatever may happen in Shanghai, the Hankow agreement is an achievement by itself to which it will always be possible to revert, perhaps as a fresh starting-point, but in any case as an example of restraint and good sense.
The nature of the agreement is worth a little study, as it suggests that it is always possible to reach a settlement if the will to settle is present, however many difficulties of form may stand in the way. In this case the difficulties of form were undeniably very great, as Mr. Chen announced that he could not possibly sign any compact unless Great Britain recognized his right to speak for all China. Mr. O'Malley naturally replied that if Great Britain were to assume that Cantonese authority was co-extensive with China, she would be guilty of one of those very acts of " Imperialism " of which the Cantonese Nationalists were always com- plaining—interference in Chinese domestic affairs. For how could Great Britain recognize Cantonese domination as complete when quite half China was still held by generals and rulers who regarded the Cantonese with contempt and defiance ? Upon this difference of opinion much more than upon the presence of British troops at Shanghai—the British promise to delay the arrival of part of the troops was quite enough to save Mr. Chen's face—the Hankow negotiations broke down repeatedly.
Yet in the end, though both sides maintained their points of view, the agreement was signed. The device by which the signing was made possible was the interesting one of ceasing to regard Mr. Chen's point as a " con- dition " and giving it expression as a declaration outside the essential part of the agreement. Thus, while Mr. Chen continues to assert that the Kuomintang is the only Government in China, Great Britain declares herself free to disbelieve it until the Cantonese can prove by deeds that their claim is sound. It was really very wise of Sir Austell Chamberlain to give way where no principle was sacrificed. He took the indulgent but practical view that the head of a revolutionary cause is bound to be a zealot and make exaggerated claims, and that these do not very much matter. Great Britain is, of course, even now negotiating with the Peking Govern- ment.
It will be impossible to reproduce at Shanghai the exact structure of the Hankow agreement, because it refers only to the British Concession. The settlement at Shanghai is, of course, international. Probably the new constitution of the British Concession at Hankow will be imitated by other foreign Concessions there, but for a time they will " go slow " to see how the arrangement works. On March 15th the British Municipal Council will be displaced by the new mixed Council, in which the Chinese will have a majority vote. Both British and Chinese solemnly give their word to do their best to make the new constitution a success. Finally, Mr. Chen promises not to seek to alter other Treaty constitutions by force.
To-day a promising kind of diplomacy is open to us that would have seemed incredible to our fathers. It will take some time, no doubt, for people to become accustomed to transactions which can be carried through effectively, not because they have behind them the old threat of arms, but because they are seen to be co venient to both sides, and because they have what nu perhaps be called, not too fantastically, the moral for of reason. The very complexity and close interlock' of all parts of the modern world make this new diploma without arms easier than could have been thong possible. There has been a great change, and our o generation may be pardoned for some scepticism wh it is invited to believe that without the persuasion o shells and bombs much can still be done. It is extraordinary fact that the present Government hat made a series of satisfactory arrangements in vario parts of the world, although they have repudiated for in each case. In the result they have lost neither hono nor substance. When Palmerston described the batt of Navarino, at which British guns helped to sink a lar part of a friendly fleet, as " a slight remonstrance struc parenthetically into a period of undisturbed peace," t witty cynic was evidently conscious that the method o remonstrating was not wholly satisfactory. But in If age no other was thought possible. At all events, tl world is advancing.
The foreign troops—international troops, of course for Great Britain is now being helped by the othe interested Powers—evidently have not arrived at Shangl too soon. Without them the danger to the ford residents would be very great indeed. The Times Friday, February 18th, published a deeply interesti but most sinister article which had been contribut to a Moscow newspaper by Tang Shin She, the Canton representative in Russia. Mr. Tang said that a gene strike and a rising " could take place at any moment. Then he continues :- " If a revolution breaks out in Shanghai, or if the Cant troops march into the town, they will take care first to seize pow in the Chinese quarter ; for the railway junction of the Ningpo Hangchow-Shanghai line and of the Nanking4ilhanghai railwa line and also the arsenal are in the Chinese part of the town. I addition to this they will refrain from responding to the proms tions of the Imperialists, in order thereby to prevent the bl bath long planned by the latter. Only when the revolution troops have the Chinese quarter in their hands will t revolutionaries proceed against the Imperialists. Shanghai is no only the greatest harbour town but also the greatest indusir town of China. The number of factory workers amounts to I:a a million. Since 1925 these 500,000 workers have stood firm behind the Red Trades Council. Among them there are 17.IA organized Communists. it is certain that under such circtunstarn a revolution in Shanghai will have a quite different character fr a revolution in any other Chinese town:" It will be noticed that Mr. Tang, in spite of ll notoriously pacific policy of Great r itain and the WI Powers, does not hesitate to say that they have planning a blood bath. He is confident, no doubt that his readers will believe this. Very likely he right. Even in Shanghai itself the Chinese scam have been much excited by the report—which th could haVe verified blit did not trouble to vent` that the British troops were going to fight on the of Sun Chuan-fang. It will be noticed also Mr. Tang thinks nothing of wrecking the richest ci in China. It is enough for him that destruction ivo embarrass Great Britain. The plotting of mob rat long before the arrival of the troops which are to ben by them is a peculiar Bolihevist method which never before been carried out with so much thoroughn. Apart from the racial atrocities of Turkey, we can th of nothing in modern history to co- mpare with t frigid preparation of events which must depend f their terror upon the frenzies of the moment.
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