CITY AND SUBURBAN
The City's cheery champagne generals are softened up by carpet bombing
CHRISTOPHER FILDES
The City is full of champagne-bar generals, and some bizarre ideas have lodged under their brass hats. They have been heard to argue that war in the Gulf will stimulate the world's flagging econo- mies, and bring the construction industry lots of orders, when the time comes to rebuild Kuwait. If this pseudo Keynesian strategy of demolition and construction made any sense, the generals should bring it closer home and nuke the Isle of Dogs. Their snap judgments on the war are plain enough — too plain, perhaps, and simple. They say that there will be no threat to the world's oil supplies, and that a glut is likelier than a famine. The punctured oil price, and the downcast shares of oil companies, particularly the exploration companies, all tell that story. They see no need for funk — witness the collapse of that prime investment in funk, gold bul- lion. They like the reality of war better than the prospect — share prices the world over say as much. That implies confidence in a tidy war (messy, of course, for those on the receiving end) to be followed by a tidy peace. I wish I thought that life or war or peace were as simple as that. I fear that the market's wits have been softened up by carpet-bombing from grounded air- marshals and Pentagon spokesmen. Mean- while, back in our own dear economy, the bills for war begin to pile up on the Chancellor's desk, and the signs of reces- sion multiply. A strong share this week is Eurotunnel. The suggestion is that it may have found an alternative use as a deep shelter.
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