This Encyclical has probably increased M. Carnot's diffi- culties in
forming an Administration. The Opportunists are unwilling to rely on the Right, because they must then admit the Right to a share of power, and they dread the rivalry of the leaders on that side ; while they cannot rely on the Left without continuing the war against the Church, which the Encyclical makes, even from their point of view, unreasonable. M. Carnot, therefore, who is clearly a weakly deliberative man rather than a man of action, has been eight days forming a Ministry, and on Friday had not yet succeeded. M. de Freycinet refuses to go back as Premier ; M. Rouvier says he cannot work without the Radicals ; and M. Bourgeois, who has been summoned, and who is anti-clerical in the extreme, says he will not try, because the Opportunists will not support the proposals he must make. There is, therefore, a deadlock, which ought to end in a dissolution. The Radicals, however, resist a dissolution, fearing to lose all Catholic votes ; and as the Senate is anti-clerical, a dissolu- tion may possibly be refused. M. Carnot must seek, there- fore, either a strong-fisted Ministry headed by M. Constans, which will compel a dissolution, and then " guide" the elec- tions, or a colourless Ministry to conduct affairs until 1893, when the dissolution will come of itself. His position as constitutional President is most embarrassing, and all the more so because, though a most worthy man, he has clearly no initiative.
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