TOPICS OF THE DAY.
THE DECLARATION OF WAR. THE most just and necessary war of our time has commenced. Through nearly two years of constant negotiation the Turkish Pashas have steadily refused to give substantial guar- antees that they would leave off oppressing their Christian subjects, have met the remonstrances of Christendom with sneering excuses, and have replied to the more urgent repre- sentations of Russia by summoning their Asiatics to arms. Their whole conduct has showed that their provinces will never be allowed to rest from provocations to insurrection which perpetually menaced the tranquillity of all the neigh- bouring Slav States. The Russian Government, therefore, had only two courses before them,—to ask Europe to compel the Turks to cease from these provocations, or to compel them by an exercise of their own military strength. They adopted the former alterna- tive; but after a formal and protracted Conference, and a nego- tiation carried on for months, Europe, instigated principally by Lord Derby, declined to interfere, except with advice which provoked the Pashas only to laughter, and it became in- dispensable either to surrender Eastern Europe to the Turks, who would have provoked further insurrections, or to break their military strength. The Czar therefore proceeded to Kischeneff, and there issued a manifesto, in which he re- counted the facts, declared that the "haughty obstinacy" of the Porte precluded further discussion, and ordered his troops to cross the frontier. The manifesto, an un- usually plain State paper, entirely free from rhodomon- tade, devoid of threats, and free from promises as to future policy, was followed by the withdrawal of the Russian Agents and Consuls from Turkey, by the presentation at Constantinople of a formal declaration of war, and by the advance of the Russian troops in Europe and Asia. The Danube has been crossed successfully at Galatz, bodies of Russian troops have already reached Bucharest, and Russian cavalry have been seen at Kalafat, which, however, the Turks have occupied, in order to protect Widdin. The plans of the Russian Staff are not yet revealed, but it is certain that war has commenced, and that for the next three weeks the main Russian army will be streaming across Roumania, and concentrating itself for the passage of the Danube, at points probably decided on and examined many years since, every inch of the territory being thoroughly known at the Russian head-quarters, where Turkey has been "the enemy" for two hundred years. The campaign has been opened, although until the Danube has been passed active hostilities can scarcely be said to have begun, and Europe will, for weeks to come, be engaged in deciding with which of the combatants victory is to lie. That victory, as we have repeatedly said, will depend mainly upon the mobility of the Russian army, and as yet, all the signs are favourable. In Europe they have seized and fortified the bridge at Sereth, the Turks being "too late" to offer opposition ; they have obtained command of the railway to Bucharest, and their cavalry are already in movement along the northern bank of the Danube. In Asia their advance- posts have been seen, and it is reported, on Turkish authority, driven back, in the neighbourhood of Batoum, and the main army is believed to be in full march on Kars. As yet, therefore, there is every sign that they intend to act with decision and energy, while their adversaries hesitate to send the Sultan to the field, intrigue against the War Minister, Redif Pasha, in the very moment when his plans are or ought to be ripe, and are reported doubtful whether they shall not remove the Commander-in-Chief, Abdul Kerim, already in the field. Prediction is vain and childish until we know more of the Russian plans, and know more accurately whether the passage of the Danube will or will not be a great military enterprise, but all probabilities are in favour of the belief that the Russians will cross the Danube successfully, will mask the Eastern fort- resses of Bulgaria, will defeat the Turks in at least one great battle, and will, long before the autumn has ended, have reached Adrianople, where we suppose the weary work of diplomacy will commence again. Apart of course from English interference, we can see no reason for the doubts still lingering in this country upon this head. The Russians always have succeeded in crossing the Danube, and that in days when pontoon-bridges could not be defended by torpedoes. They never have been stopped by the Turkish fortresses, even in times when their numbers were indefinitely smaller than is now the case, and when their troops, unsupported by a railway, ill-fed, and weighed down by that weak spirit of resignation which is the accompaniment of serfage, perished in thousands, like herds struck by a murrain, from disease.- Much has changed in war since 1823, but every change has been in the direction of the use of scientific appliances, and in their use, at all events, the European Government must in the long-run beat the Asiatic one. The Turkish soldier is brave, but he is not more brave than he was in 1823, and he has admitted a much larger proportion of Asiatics into his ranks, and they, though individually as brave as himself, have not the hereditary pride which is his substitute for the European steadiness and reluctance to retire. The Turkish officer, on the other hand, is certainly no better than he was, and probably much worse, for he is called upon to work an instrument—modern discipline—with which he is far less familiar than his grandfather was with the old Janissary system of war. On the other hand, while the Russian soldier remains unchanged save in the new strength resulting from the abolition of serfage, and the consequent absence of temptation to force the worst peasants on the recruiting officers, the Russian officer has become a better educated, a more hopeful and in many ways a more civilised man. He has benefited, however slightly by the example of his brethren in Germany. It is too much forgotten in this country, where. the contest is represented as one between two Asiatic Powers, that two-fifths of the Russian officers are Germans, that all are burning with desire to show that they are the rivals of their Prussian allies, and that a large proportion of them, par- ticularly in the Army of the Caucatns, are men of immense experience, if not in first-class wars, in wars which have taxed to the utmost their powers of organisation. They have, as yet, no Moltke at their head—though we see statements, possibly false, that one of the ablest of the German higher officers, General von Werder, is with their Staff—but neither have the Turks, while their arrangements for supply, their means of locomotion, and above all, their artillery are certain to be the better of the two. It seems to be also forgotten that the Turkish Army, with the same Commander-in-Chief and acting on the same ground, took months to conquer little Bervia, and did not conquer still smaller Montenegro, and ex- hibited in both campaigns a defect of slowness which, though doubtless less injurious to an army acting on the defensive than to invaders, still seriously detracts from its strength. We can see no source of power in Turkish hands, except the command of the sea, and it is yet to be seen whether this will help them in their campaign, except by making it easier to de- fend Varna ; and whether it will counterbalance the immense superiority of the Russians in light cavalry, cavalry which it is known their leader intends to use as his right arm. So far as we can judge, the substantial and permanent causes of military success are in this campaign with the Russians and not with their opponents, while the civil strength which sup- ports armies is with them altogether. Russia is poor, but Turkey is poorer. Russian administration is at many points weakened by corruption, but corruption infects even the Turkish centres. Russia is despotic, but the despotism is used by statesmen, while power as absolute adheres in C on- stantinople to an official "Ring." The result may dis- appoint all expectation, but so far as human reason can perceive, the chances are this time on the side of the Power which, be its latent ambition what it may— and there never was human act done yet without mixed motives—advances at the call of an enthusiastic people to defend the right.
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