Political commentary
Why Labour may revive
Teddy Taylor
rr here are few active politicians who can .1 remember a time when the Conser- vative Party was so popular with the voters and when the Labour Party was so desper- ately unpopular and distrusted. And the fact that these twin movements have co- incided with a period in the mid-term of a Conservative government when unemploy- ment is so appallingly high makes the situa- tion all the more remarkable.
The movement in opinion was evident months before the Falklands crisis, but there is no doubt that the efficient and pur- poseful way in which Mrs Thatcher and the Government handled the military problem increased public support and admiration for the Conservatives as the party of firm and efficient government. At the same time as things were going the Government's way, the problems of the Labour Party have in- creased. Quite apart from the messy dif- ficulties of the Militant Tendency and the associated problem of a parliamentary par- ty which dislikes, and in some cases despises, its 'grass roots' activists, there is a new major problem in that few electors have the slightest idea of the specific policies which a Labour government would actually implement.
In such a situation it would be reasonable for Conservatives to look forward with con- fidence; and it is interesting that I have come across colleagues who were discussing how the slump in Labour might best be con- trolled or limited just in case an SDP/Liberal upsurge might place certain Conservative seats at risk.
I take the view, despite evidence to the contrary, that Conservatives would be wise to prepare for the possibility of a sharp and sustained revival in the fortunes of the Labour Party, and that we should be think- ing carefully about the best means of frustrating and tackling such a revival.
There are several reasons why I hold this view. First, there is a danger, which more economists and commentators are recognis- ing, that Britain could face a worsening economic situation in the autumn which might erode confidence And the sad fact is that if such a deterioration takes place, it will not be because of any failure in the Government's own economic policies. Unlike many of our neighbours' govern- ments, ours has been successful in curbing inflation without artificial restraints, in im- proving the balance of payments, in strengthening our currency and in reducing interest rates. A base has been established for Britain to be able to benefit smartly from a revival in the world economy. But if, as seems possible, the horrendous budget deficit in the US, which will require vast borrowing (despite Reagan's success in pushing his tax increases through Congress), forces US interest rates up again, it is difficult to see how Britain can be isolated. Without the protection of any form of exchange controls, there is no way in which we could remain unaffected by a sharp rise in US rates. The psychological ef- fect on British business confidence, par- ticularly in the hard pressed construction in- dustry, of a rise in interest and mortgage rates could be devastating.
Nor is it out of the question that the autumn of 1982 could see a further sharp rise in unemployment. Static or declining world commodity prices and the growth of deflationary policies forced on previously prosperous nations have an obvious impact on demand; and the further consequences of rationalisation and technological ad- vance could force the jobless total upwards.
None of these economic movements could, in my opinion, be fairly blamed on the British Government or its policies, but so far as the average voter is concerned a sharp deterioration in prospects after three years of economic castor oil could be unac- ceptable. So long as there is a prospect of light at the end of the economic tunnel, I believe that the majority would stand by a government which has shown determina- tion, strength and courage. But if such small lights as have been identified fade away and deterioration sets in, there could be a fundamental reassessment on the part of the voters. But even this dismal situation would not be enough to switch political opi- nion if the Labour Party remains in its pre- sent plight and is haunted by the image however unfair — of a shambles of a party led by a shambling and dithering old man.
This is where change could occur quickly. In my time in politics I have been astonish- ed at Labour's powers of recovery. While it has been said that disagreements in the Conservative Party go on for three genera- tions, there is no doubt that Labour can change from a hopeless wreck to dynamic recovery within months.
The catalyst will, in my view, be a change of leadership. I believe that Michael Foot took over the leadership of the Labour Par- ty not because of personal ambition, but because he was persuaded by colleagues that the alternatives of a Healey or a Benn victory would have created a situation of non-stop war in the Labour Party. In view of the indications of public opinion and because an alternative may be emerging, Mr Foot must be thinking of retiring.
The emerging candidate, who has much to commend himself to Labour and the public, is Peter Shore. Some of his leftist ideaS make him acceptable to the Left, while his pleasant, sober and rather respon- sible uttering of platitudes suits the kind of leader who would not scare off potential voters. He is one of the most skilful ad- vocates of the 'something must be done and done quickly' political school which has the combination of decisiveness and vagueness with a special appeal to people facing major problems.
His election could create a new climate of opinion which might enable the recent shambles to be forgotten by many and remembered as part of the Foot inheritance by others. And his emergence as leader would, I think, create the climate in which the Bennite group, which is already facing harassment from most sides of the part); could end up in the friendless and beleaguered state of the PLO in West Beirut. And we should not forget that a Shore-led Labour Party has the basic ad- vantage that Labour's four policy themes are a lot more popular than the average Conservative is prepared to allow. I deplore the CND and nuclear dis- armers, but am nevertheless amazed at the extent to which anti-nuclear feeling has grown. It used to be a trendy view which we associated with bearded students and eccen- tric clergymen, but now has a deep hold on gatherings of middle-class housewives. While a Shore-led Labour Party would not, I am sure, promote naked unilateralism, the, basic hostility to all things nuclear would have its attractions.
Then there is job creation. While the facts seem to show that state intervention to create or maintain jobs does not work as we saw so clearly from the Bennite co- operatives and from the long saga of na" tionalised industries — it would be an err°r to disregard the appeal of job creation in times of massive unemployment. Parents of 16-year-olds facing a hopeless labour market when they leave school could find more appeal in a party promising massive intervention than in one which claims that intervention is costly and ineffective. The views of many Labour supporters who advocate pulling out of Ulster and Pro" moting a united Ireland are, I believe, irresponsible and short-sighted. But again, it would be a major error to underestimate the broad and substantial appeal of such a policy. Nor can we forget the EEC. My own deep conviction is that the parties have end- ed up on the wrong side of this argument and that it should be Labour and not the Conservatives promoting the merits of a costly, bureaucratic, interventionist and protectionist organisation. However, s° long as it is Labour who are associated with anti-Common Market views, they have 3 major electoral bonus.
The canvassing of the possibility of a ma- jor Labour revival will, I suspect, cause hoots of laughter and derision in some Con- servative circles. However, events and oPt- nions have been changing with astonishing speed in this decade of the 20th centurY, and mid-October should demonstrate whether my views are depressive nonsense or an area for further, and urgent, debate.
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