WHAT DOES GERMANY MEAN?
WHAT is menacing the peace of Europe today is doubt about what Germany really means. It is a question of psychology, not of fact ; not of what she is doing, but of what she intends to do. And regarding intention there can be no infallible proof. Germany, of course, professes peace. What nation does not ?
What nation ever did not—apart from the chauvinism of individuals like Bernhardi twenty years ago and Banse today who can be repudiated immediately as unofficial and irresponsible ? But Germany's intentions, discoverable and demonstrable or not, affect a dozen other nations' intentions. Primarily they affect France's.
France says, what is undoubtedly true, that Germany is rearming. She adds, what is equally true, but carries us little further, that such action is a violation of the Treaty of Versailles. Why, she asks, does Germany arm unless with the idea of attacking someone—probably France ? France must clearly increase her own armaments in face of such a menace ; in no case can she dream of reducing them. That on the one side. On the other the inevitable sequel. France refuses to disarm ; the inequality between her and Germany is perpetuated. Or worse, France increases her armaments ; the inequality between her and Germany is intensified. Germany, therefore, must clearly rearm, as the pledge of equality of status secured by her eighteen months ago at Geneva gives her a moral right to do. So the double argument runs, and as result of it all hope of a disarmament agree- ment is shattered.
Is France right ? Let it be conceded at once that there is plenty of colour for her suspicions. The outstanding characteristic of Germany today is an intense and over-emphasized nationalism, expressing itself openly in a hatred of everything international, particularly of the supreme symbol of international co-operation, the League of Nations. A spirit of intolerance indis- tinguishable from the spirit of aggression has been assiduously and successfully cultivated, and the nation has been so ruthlessly disciplined that if its leaders cast the die for war not a voice would be uplifted against their choice. That is the position, and Germany cannot complain if distrust in her motives has spread far beyond France—so much so indeed that any attempt at apology for her is liable to be dismissed as mere dangerous credulity. Is it that ? Or has, in fact, the mistrust been exaggerated—largely as a result of Germany's own demeanour ? That is the vital question, and public opinion in this country is tending to answer it in a different sense from France. The German Government has put forward what, as far as they go, look very reasonable proposals regarding . disarmament, and the British and Italian Governments are disposed to take them at their face value. Baron von Neurath, the German Foreign Minister, made on Friday a reasoned -speech regarding Germany's attitude, and British opinion is prepared to give it serious consideration. On the other hand, the recent increase in the service estimates in the German budget is, in spite of explanations which are not all invalid, seriously disturbing. The refusal to consider a security pact regarding the Baltic States arouses suspicion. And Dr. Schacht's threat of default on Germany's external obligations calls her good faith definitely in question.
- In the face of that situation risks have to be taken. For there is at least as much risk in believing the worst of Germany and acting accordingly as in accepting her assurances and in making a disarmament agreement legalizing her armaments at their present Lye!. To describe the one cause as perilous and the other as prudent is foolhardy. There is obvious risk either way. But some step must be taken. Situations do not stand still. They develop for better or worse, and the danger of blindly drifting into war, of which the Labour manifesto spoke last week, is not imaginary. The situation, then, must be controlled if it can be, and certain elements in it may provide some guide to action. So far as there is evolution inside Germany it is not such as to increase misgivings. The recent memorandum on disarmament, which must have had the whole of Herr Hitler's authority behind it, was reassuring. So is the fact that the ex- perienced non-political members of the Cabinet, like Baron von Neurath, Count Schwerin von Grosigk, the Minister of Finance, Dr. Schmidt, the Minister of Economics, all retain their places, contrary to some expectation. The retirement of General Goering from the post of Prussian Minister of the Interior—with control of the police of most of Germany—is certainly no bad sign. And the fact that two days after Baron von Neurath had given what was no doubt an ex park, but at the same time a perfectly sober, review of the disarma- ment situation, closing with an appeal to other countries to grasp Germany's open hand, the Vice-Chancellor, Herr von Papen, discussed with Reuter's representative the terms on which Germany would return to Geneva, creates a situation which other nations have no right to ignore.
The position today is that to all appearance Great Britain and Italy could without much difficulty conclude a fairly satisfactory disarmament agreement with Germany, but not with France. It would be no more than fairly satisfactory, for it would authorize a much larger rearmament of Germany than anyone outside Germany likes ; but that, it is fair for Germans to rejoin, is because other countries refuse flatly to disarm down to Germany's treaty level. This is a situation on which France might find it wise to reflect. Public opinion in this country is not moving in her direction. M. Barthou may have settled matters with Poland ancl brought back warm assurances of the Little Entente's loyalty, but every Frenchman knows that it is the support of this country and Italy, not of certain East and Central European States, that he needs for his security. If Germany means what her last armament memorandum said ; if her spokesmen will dissipate certain doubts, e.g., as to her attitude regarding the control of civil aviation and her willingness to enter into a European armaments agreement if a world-wide convention is unattainable ; then further conversations can with advantage go forward on the basis of the British draft convention and her response to it. NO man could do more to restore confidence in Europe today than the German Chancellor. A reaffirmation by him of the essentials of the proposition developed last week by Baron von Neurath, and a definition, supplementing Herr von Papen's statement, of the conditions on which Germany would return to Geneva, would have an immensely reassuring effect —and benefit no country so much as Germany herself.
There will unfortunately be no German delegation at ,Geneva when the disarmament discussions reopen at the end of the month, and the special type of four-cornered conversations between Governments is not to be per- pctuated. But normal diplomatic relations persist; If Mr. Eden does not go to Berlin, Sir Eric Phipps is there and Herr von Hoesch is in contact with Sir John Simon here. If Germany's intentions need to be further explored, as they do, the means for exploring them are present. And the operation is amply -worth carrying out. When the Foreign Minister of a country with whom it is essential to reach agreement holds out what pro- fesses to be an olive branch, no one worthy of the name of statesman would reply that he was not interested in botany. The gulf between France and Germany remains unbridged, but it may prove easier in the end for this country and Italy to come provisionally to terms with Germany and prevail on France to accept them, than to reach agreement with France and persuade Germany to endorse the compact. When all possibilities need canvassing, that one should not be ignored. The present sentence of disarmament imposed on Germany by the Treaty of Versailles is valueless, and everyone knows it. An agreement freely entered into, and with provision for international supervision of its execution, would be a totally different matter. To reject the hope of that without testing by every practicable means the sincerity of Germany's recent professions would be a crime.
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