THE TURNING TIDE IN fact it is not merely turning,
it has turned. That is the conclusion which a strictly sober survey of every battle-front ippears to justify. The last week in May has carved for itself !pee of its own in the history of the war. It saw the complete disorganisation by Marshal Timoshenko. of Hitler's plan for his spring offensive on the eastern front. It saw the defeat of itommel's attempt to capture Tobrilk and much more of the Libyan coast by a sudden blitz. And, possibly most important of all in s ultimate consequences, it saw a new chapter in air warfare Domed by the thousand-machine. raid on Cologne, followed two lights later by a thousand-machine raid on Essen. There are grange vicissitudes in. war, and we shall no doubt experience nay adversities yet. We have not so far had to reproach selves in this country with an excessive optinlism. There is greater tendency to magnify our disasters than our successes.
t it is possible and prudent to avoid both extremes and see s plainly as they are. Doing that, we are entitled to go a de further than the Prime Minister did in one of his recent eches, and claim that the top of the ridge has been not only ched but passed. It may not be the only ridge, but there will no other as formidable as this.
To say less than that would be inadequate, to say more would premature. The war is very far from over. It is much too n to entertain any confident hope of a conclusion this year. But re is solid ground for believing that Germany, the only one the Axis Powers that counts supremely, has passed the peak her power, while the United Nations have yet to reach the of theirs. That is so whether the measure be man-power, -strength or industrial capacity. The reason, of course, is the ressive mobilisation of the almost limitless resources of the 'nited States. Even in Great Britain new munition and aircraft tories are still coming into production, and labour forces hly enlisted, particularly women, are still learning by experi- e increase their potential capacity. But America, with more way to make up and with the habit of production on a majestic le, is capable of increases unimaginable here. Ships, tanks, d aeroplanes in particular are flowing from her slips and tories in volume such as within a period already measurable ust leave the Axis Powers overwhelmed. Two statements made different sides of the Atlantic in the past week need only to be taposed to demonstrate the doom that is relentlessly threaten- Germany. The United States, it was announced by the erican Under-Secretary for .War last Friday, would exceed the ,000 aeroplanes set as target for 1942 " by a healthy margin "; Mr. Churchill mentioned in the House of Commons on ednesday that in the great raids on Cologne and Essen not machine was used that was not British-built. American chines are of course being used by the R.A.F. in different of the world, but the vast mass of America's air-onslaught Germany has yet to be launched. That operation is im- ding, as the declarations made by the Prime Minister and by American General Arnold, testify. The air-war then will e reached its climax.
That -at the moment is the outstanding factor in the war. 'sia's incomparable resistance has made the defeat of Germany in. The swift mobilisation of the United States has brought date of victory nearer than could conceivably have been hoped !ear ago. The defeat of Rommel's stroke in Libya this week has far to remove the dangers and anxieties that a German ante on Egypt would have involved. But even so the supreme non today is, what effect will the initiation and the certain tinuance and increase of devastating air-raids on Germany have on Germany's capacity for war and her will to war. The first is more easily estimated than the second. The war ultimately will be won or lost in the factories. Only the nation that produces the material of war in overwhelming volume and can transport it punctually to the fronts where it is needed can have any hope of staying the course to victory. Till recently neither British nor German production has been seriously curtailed as the result of air-attack. That is true of Britain still. It is no longer true of Germany. The raids on the Renault factory, and now on the aero- engine factory and the rubber factory near Paris, on the Diesel- engine factory at Augsburg, the Heinkel factory at Rostock, the diverse industries of Cologne and Essen, have dealt blows at German production which have already diminished output sub- stantially, in some cases for the whole period of the war. And in the two latter cases certainly, as well as in many raids yet to come, vital communications are involved the destruction of which must seriously impede the delivery of munitions to the troops at the front. Munitions which do not get where they are needed might as well not have been manufactured.
What is to be the effect of this on the Germans themselves? The question, of course, can only be answered in part. We do not know what the state of German morale is, though there is clear evidence of its deterioration. The privations of the winter and the bereavements in millions of homes as a result of the winter campaign are a poor preparation for the ordeal which the R.A.F. is preparing. Whatever attempts the propaganda- machine may make to conceal or minimise the destruction wrought, such things cannot be hid. Concealment, indeed, only breeds exaggerated rumour and proportionate panic. Already there are stories of panic, and all probability confirms them. Whether or not Germans have heard Mr. Churchill's prediction of what is to happen to them " city by city," they must know for them- selves what the prospect is. For Himmler to take over A.R.P. and Goering to mobilise every available man for defence against raids means nothing. There is no defence. In two bright moonlight nights, in conditions which always help night-fighters and A.A. gunners against the bombers, the British losses were under 4 per cent. and under 31 per cent. respectively. There is no reason why, except through chance misfortunes, they should ever be greater. The Luftwaffe is plainly unable to meet the calls on it in Russia, in Libya, in France and for home defence. The day of Germany's domination of the air has gone for ever.
There is one aspect of this new phase of war on which some- thing must be said. The bombing of Cologne, whether it resulted in 20,000 or io,000 deaths or fewer, is frankly horrible. Anyone who can listen complacently to the stories of the bombs that have swept whole families to death anil shattered homes which, no less than homes here, have been built up patiently and often with sacrifice round united lives, must be lacking in some- thing without which human nature is much the poorer. One of the first counts against war is that it makes such things necessary. There is no deliberate bombing of civilians, but the need of completely smashing all war-industry and all communications makes any kind of immunity for civilians .impossible. And it is just to claim—it would indeed be self-deception not to claim— that, on balance, loss of life is in fact being reduced by the R.A.F. To shorten the war by a week would mean that tens of thousands of lives, Allied and German, would be saved on the Russia front, in Libya, wherever the armies and the fleets are fighting. Whatever their success, the R.A.F. will never count as many victims in a week as that. And that the new raids will appreciably shorten the road to victory over Germany cannot be seriously doubted. Meanwhile, the R.A.F. is giving the answer to Russia's just demands. A second front fraught with vast possibilities is in being. It may not divert German soldiers from the Eastern Front, but it can hardly fail to divert aeroplanes, which is hardly less important. It promises to disorganise Germany utterly and to bring into increasing disrepute a regime which wantonly sought the war that today is laying Germany waste. And today, as Germans know, is nothing to tomorrow, for America has still to add her might in the air to Britain's. Nor will that might manifest itself in on element alone. General Marshall's assurance to West Point cade that one of these days they would be landing, as American officers in France was no empty verbiage. But optimism must still be hel sternly in check. Only the first round in the Libyan battle h so far been won, not the battle itself. And what has been sai about munitions getting safely to their destination appli with special force to consignments from overseas. There ground for considerable anxiety here still.
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