Speculation on how long Germany can stand air-raids on the
new scale is inevitable, if in some sense idle. The new scale, as Mr. Churchill warned the House of Commons, will of course not be uniformly maintained. Tuesday night's raid by merely " a strong force " was a fitting reminder of that. What the term " strong force " signifies numerically can only be guessed. If the casualties—fourteen aircraft missing—represent about the same percentage as in the two mass-raids the total strength would have been about 400. Till last week that would have been thought something very formidable. Today it must have seemed to Germany almost a relief. But no prospect of much relief lies ahead. The difference between the raids on Britain a year and more ago and the raids on Germany today is vital. Bad as things were we always had reason to believe that Germany was exerting her utmost effort, and that the power of the defence, both in fighters and in guns, was growing steadily. Germans can cherish no such belief. First of all our attacks on her are much more than twice as heavy as her attacks on us. Secondly there is reason to think her defence has reached its maximum capacity, and at that it can take no more than a 4 per cent. toll of the assailants. Third, and much the most important of all, the certainty that American raids will be added to and co-ordinated with British leaves the average German no room for anything but black despair. He may be tempted to trust to the U-boat for victory still. But the pace of American shipbuilding rules out that hope.
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