LETTERS TO THE EDITOR.
• IS A GREAT EUROPEAN WAR INEVITABLE IN THE NEAR FUTURE P [To THE EDITOR OF THE "SPECTATOR.") SiR,—Seventeen years ago, as one of the administrators of the War Victims' Fund, I saw a great deal of the war, and of the combatants on both sides, in every part of France where fighting took place. Last autumn I travelled through a great part of Germany, and spent two months in Berlin. There every one spoke of war as absolutely certain, the only question was,—When? I would not believe it ; it seemed too horrible, too senseless, too wicked.
I have now been a few weeks in France, tricycling about the country, taking the railway for long stretches, and conversing freely with gentle and simple, with priests and peasants, soldiers, commis voyageurs, and artisans, and, to my extreme sorrow, it seems to me war is certain. The French are not bumptious and overbearing, as they were in 1870. They do not despise or underrate their enemy. They are in no hurry to begin ; they would prefer to wait ten years, to perfect their organisation and develop their Army. France is a rich country; Germany a poor one. Relatively, France gains in strength by every month's delay. The armaments, which are ruinous to Germany, France can bear, though to her also they are an awful tax.
In what I am saying about French opinion, I do not speak of the silly boys who shout for Boulanger, and scrawl his name on every wall in France, nor of the sillier voters who return him at the head of the poll. Sober Frenchmen, I believe the majority, regard the General as the worst enemy of France, and the best friend Germany can have ; but I have not met any Frenchman, of any condition or party, who has expressed the slightest doubt as to the certainty of war, unless, indeed, Germany would restore the conquered provinces without war. Those who know Germany, know that the last man and the last gun must go before Alsace and Metz are again under the tricolour. It is just possible that had Provi- dence seen fit to grant a reign of ten years to the Emperor Frederick, his great wisdom and extreme love of peace might have contrived some modus vivendi between the two peoples ; but, alas ! for this we dare not hope.
Prince Bismarck is perfectly well aware of the quiet but irreversible determination of France ; and is it, then, to be wondered at, if being determined never to give up Alsace and Metz, he means that France shall fight him at a time to suit his convenience, and not hers? The Almighty can alone avert the catastrophe to which things seem inevitably tending. Should France be successful, the German Empire will be smashed to shivers, and it is distressing to think what the overrunning of Germany by French armies will mean. If France is again beaten, Nice, Savoy, and probably Provence will go to Italy, and probably a large slice of the North of France will be annexed to Belgium.
The French know that Germany will do this, but they believe that if they are worsted, England in her own interest will prevent the dismemberment of France, especially if Germany can be made to attack them. Manifestly they are mistaken here, as they are in the estimate of the young soldier at Berlin whose forehead will soon have to bear the awful weight of empire.—I am, Sir, &c.,
SAMUEL JAMES CAPPER.
Creully, near Caen, Normandy, April 30th.
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