TOPICS OF TIIE DAY. ■■■••••■•■••••••■■
WARSAWAND RUSSIA, ON Thursday afternoon the German wireless news announced the occupation of Warsaw. Official con- firmation is lacking as we go to press, but in any case it is probable that the city will be evacuated very shortly. Earlier news had encouraged the hope that the determina- tion of the Russians to postpone the evil day ai long as possible would prevail, and that the Germans would have to spend another week in hard fighting outside the city. What is, we trust, certain is that the Russian armies have made their position secure, and that there is now no risk of their being caught between the two jaws of the pincers that are closing from the north and south. We cannot repeat too often that the keeping of the Russian armies " in being" is all that really matters. Their destruction would be a shattering blow to the Allies. The evacuation of Warsaw and its occupation by Germany will not be a vital blow from the military point of view, though we admit that it will have considerable moral and political dis- advantages. The occupation of Warsaw raises far more military dangers for Germany than for our Ally. If Warsaw has fallen and the Germans have to undertake the big operation of occupying a city of close on a million in- habitants, they cannot run the risk of allowing a large Russian force to hover close by ready to pounce if anything goes wrong in the Polish capital. The occupation of Warsaw means for the Germans the necessity of pushing the Russian forces far enough away to render them unable to strike quickly. But the further the Russians are pushed away the further must the German Army go in pursuit. We cannot believe that the Germans will be able to feel secure in Warsaw during the coming winter unless their line runs from Riga or near it across the old Polish salient. But this means very serious developments for Germany, especially in the winter. It means that their lines of com- munication will be greatly lengthened, or, to put it in another way, that the distance between their furthest eastern and their furthest western trench will be dangerously long. For Powers placed as are Germany and Austria—that is, Powers holding interior lines—their ideal should be con- ceutration and cohesion. Their wish should be to draw in rather than to expand, so that at any moment they may be able to spring at their enemies. A gently extended enceinte such as that they will be forced to occupy by their advance into Poland opens out a long vista of difficulties and anxieties, especially for Powers who are coming to the end of their resources in men, and who yet may be called upon to find many more troops to meet new embarrass- ments. As an example of what we mean we would point to the news in Thursday's papers as to the possibility of Italian co-operation at Gallipoli. According to the Morning Post, that co-operation is imminent. But if the Allies get through to Constantinople the whole situation in the Balkans will at once change, and Roumania, Bulgaria, and Greece, all now standing irresolute or reluctant, will have to make up their miuds whether to stand by the Quadruple Alliance or to pin their faith to Germany and Austria. We can hardly doubt which way the balance will incline, consider- ing the geographical position and the possibilities of sea power. With the Allied Fleets triumphant in the Egean, the Straits, the Sea of Marmora, and the Black Sea, and with powerful Allied Armies in Thrace, the Balkan Powers are not likely to come down on the German side of the fence. But this means that Germany and Austria must find troops, and troops in very large numbers, to place on their uncovered southern and south-eastern fronts. They may want trenches from the Bukowina, through Transylvanis,, and across the head of the Adriatic, till they join the trenches on the Isonzo, or the trenches to which the Austrians now on the Isonzo will by that time have withdrawn. The Germans cannot dis- guise from themselves that an advance in force from the head of the Adriatic is always a possibility, and that if it comes they will need all their resources in men and munitions to meet the new peril from the south. Indeed, we should not be surprised to find the more level- headed Germans bewailing the day when they were tempted to let the Russians lead them on into Poland. Warsaw may, after all, turn out to be a veritable death-trap, even if an unintended one. No doubt Germany and Austria appear to have plenty of troops, but we can never insist too often or too strongly on the fact that the numbers they possess, though great, are strictly limited, and that very soon there will be no more forthcoming. Then the German policy of thinking nothing of men's lives but only of the immediate local result will begin to tell against them very heavily.
Before we leave the subject of Warsaw and Russia we desire to express on behalf of the British people our admiration for the heroism, not only of the Russian Army but of the Russian people, and our perfect faith in their steadfastness to the Alliance. In addition to desiring the Russians to realize that we have never doubted for an instant their determination to stand by the Alliance and to keep their national honour free from stain, we want them to know that we fully understand how great are the sacrifices that Russia has been making, and that we thoroughly understand that in the plains of Poland they have been fighting our battle and the battle of France and Italy as well as their own. Further, we fully recognize that in this war there must be no exhibition of what we may call local selfishness by any one of the Allies. We must be just as keen, just as anxious, to see the Russians well supplied with munitions as we are to see our own Army well supplied. The stock of munitions must, so to speak, be pooled and divided amongst the Allies, not' according to their place of origin, but according to the needs of the armies as a whole. To put it in another way, we must be prepared, and we are prepared, to share our last shell with our Russian Allies. Happily, however,' we have now passed the point where even as a figure of speech it is necessary to talk about the last shell. Though much remains to be done, our supply of munitions has enormously improved during the last two months, and, what is more, we are now getting the plant laid down for increasing the output. Here indeed is the signal of success and victory. We have not merely got a hoard Of shells, but the potentiality of making them which will soon surprise the world. Iu this context we may point out to those of our English readers who have not yet understood the point that a very great change is rapidly coming over the Russian people and the framework of the Russian Govern- ment. Before the war began the greater part of the industries of Russia, vast sections of Russian agriculture, and still more a great proportion of the administration were under. German influence. For the last two and a half centuries whenever the Russians have been in difficulties of any kind, they have always sent for a German to put matters right.. The German has stood for them as the handy useful man to be called in in a difficulty, and this emergency-man when called in has usually come to stop. Many of them have no doubt become loyal Russian subjects, but of recent years, the German who has gone into Russia has remained a German at heart. Hence, when the war broke out, and in spite of the return of many Germans, the country was still full of persons with active German sympathies, or of per- sons who believed that the Germans were so powerful that they wore certain to win in the war, and that therefore it was bad policy to push them too hard and make them too hostile. Russia, in fact, was full of men, often in high place, who for various reasons must be classed as pro- Germans. This condition of things, however, is now rapidly passing away. Men of pro-German proclivities are being weeded out from all departments of the State, and very shortly, if the work has not already been accom- plished, Russia will be fighting as an undivided house.
It is a good thing to know that the Russians have throughout realized what they owe to the British alliance, and especially to the British Fleet. They have a touching belief, and one which we are sure the British people are determined not to disappoint, in the steadfastness of Britain. They hold that throughout history Britain has withstood all attempts to destroy her, and they believe that the teachings of history will not be falsified. They know also how great' is the pressure that Britain can exercise through her fleet, and what it his already accom- plished in the way of help for Russia. Without going into detail we may point out that Russia is vulnerable on the north, the south; and the east to attacks from the sea, and that Britain by the pressure of sea power is able to prevent any of the Powers now neutral from yielding to a temptation to attack Russia.
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