COMMUNISM IN ASIA
By SIR MIRZA ISMAIL
Current events in China, as elsewhere, have emphasised the dangers that threaten both countries if they refuse to co-operate in the international field. We know that the infection of Communism in the peninsula is causing apprehension to the authorities. To their credit, they have handled the trouble firmly, but nevertheless the poison is spreading, and those for whom Marxism is gospel are still defiant and determined. They have good reason to expect support from beyond the frontiers. The victories of the Chinese Communist armies, which now stand almost on the Burmese border, make it practically certain that the Red tide banking up in South- East Asia will soon threaten East Bengal (Pakistan) and Assam (India). Only by the resolute and concerted effort of India and Pakistan can the danger from the East be met.
A close entente between the two countries is made necessary also by the clouds gathering over the N.W. Frontier. For the past two or three months the attitude of the Kabul authorities has been most unfriendly, almost to the point of bringing about a rupture of diplo- matic relations. Avowedly the object of the Afghan Government is to make good its claim to the allegiance of the two or three million Pathans in the tribal belt between the Durand Line and the adminis- tered districts of Pakistan. So far there has been no threat of direct hostilities. The Kabul Government's attitude seems to suggest that it seeks to utilise the embarrassments of Pakistan arising from the Kashmir controversy to extort concessions in some form or other from the Pakistan authorities.
There may, however, be more to it than that. Indeed, there are grounds for suspicion that Russia is behind the activities of the Afghan authorities, and that her object is to create widespread disturbances on the Frontier in the expectation that the reactions on the Kashmir dispute will lead to inter-Dominion war. In the convulsion that would follow there would be every opportunity for an all-out Communist campaign in the Punjab. This would syn- chronise with a similar movement from the East, and the result might be that the Western Powers would lose India as a bastion against Soviet attack in the South-East. There would at the same time be a Communist movement towards the Persian Gulf.
In pre-partition days the bulk of the Indian Army was massed on, or adjacent to, the North-West Frontier. The Indian Government had at its disposal all the reserves of the sub-continent ; Pakistan has less than a third of these. Pakistan's new army is not quite fully organised, and in the present circumstances would certainly be severely embarrassed by an Afghan invasion backed by the fighting men of the great tribal belt. Fortunately, at the moment, the tribes- men in the Pakistan sphere of influence are loyal ; and actively resent the attitude of Kabul. But can a continuance of that loyalty be guaranteed against an intensive effort of Russia to win them over ? To stand up to such temptation would be a heavy strain. If they joined Afghanistan, and Russia lent staff officers and planes and gave ample military supplies, Pakistan could not repel such an onslaught and might be driven across the Indus. In the clebticie that would follow both Dominions might go down in ruin. That the Indian authorities are not insensitive to the threatened danger is shown by the views of leading statesmen, and especially by the attitude of Pandit Nehru, Prime Minister of India, at the London Conference. The decision reached unanimously went to show that his Government realises that in world conditions today it cannot hope to stand alone. But good intentions are not enough. Time presses, and the danger must be met promptly, Undoubtedly the attitude of Kabul would change if India and Pakistan came closely together. What stands in the way of rapprochement is the Kashmir dispute. The immediate need is for settlement on lines agreeable to both sides and also to the Pathan tribes of the borderland. Given an agreement under which India would pledge herself to support Pakistan in the defence of her frontier with Afghanistan, the storm-clouds which now hover over that turbulent region would disappear. An early joint diplomatid approach to Kabul would probably improve the position.
Such a development would disappoint Russia. She would then probably play a waiting game. But should she succeed in forcing the pace, India and Pakistan, standing together, would undoubtedly, if they so wished, receive help from their associates in the Common- wealth. They could not expect it otherwise. Indeed, as the Calcutta Statesman has suggested, there is a strong case for Great Britain—and the United States also—making their interest known in advance in Kabul. The interests of both countries would be affected by an explosion on the North-West frontier. Diplomatic action by them at this stage might prevent mischief from developing further.
In internal affairs likewise there is dire need for a rapprochement, between India and Pakistan, which are so dependent upon each other in matters affecting their internal economy. They swim' together or they sink. What Nature intended, by the vast Himalayan wall and the varied distribution of her potential resources, to be a single country cannot exist in separate unfriendly parts, isolated from each other.. They must come together in at least certain essen- tial matters or be prepared for ultimate disaster. I can see no insuperable obstacle to a real friendly relationship between the two countries, but the will must be there. Let them pool their resources as far as possible and strive for mutual prosperity. The countries of Europe, which so long remained distinct political and economic entities, have been obliged, by pressure of circumstances, to surrender part of their sovereignty, and to stand shoulder to shoulder and bear a common burden. Why should not India and Pakistan do the same ? True statesmanship, based on reality, demands that India and Pakistan should devote their thought and energy to the speediest achievement of economic, cultural and political partnership with each other. They should sink their differences and meet the coming dangers together. Such a policy, pursued in a spirit of positive friendship, is their only way to security. Even brief delay may prove disastrous.
Statesmanship has seldom been challenged by a more pregnant opportunity ; and it is a stirring thought that the leaders of India and Pakistan, working together, may now exercise a decisive influence upon the history of the world.
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