THE PROSPECT IN FRANCE. T HE prospect in France is still
far from unclouded, though it needs only a little of that new wisdom of moderation which the Republicans have shown under very trying circum- stances for the last six months, to turn it into one that is both bright and certain. Everything now depends on the Senate, and the adjournment of the Senate for a week without any invitation addressed to it by the Government to strengthen their hands by passing a vote of confidence in the Administra- tion, is, so far as it goes, a very satisfactory sign. M. de Broglie knew that to ask for such a vote from the Senate would be to invite a rebuff, and for that reason only he abstained. It was well known that this request had formed part of the programme of the ' Government of Combat' ever since the re- sult of the General Election was known, and that the Consti- tutional resolve taken by the Orleanist members of the Senate alone rendered this strategic stroke impracticable. Now it is said that the hope of the Government is in the violence of the Chamber of Deputies. They flatter themselves that during a week of debates on the invalidation and validation of powers, the Conservatism of the Senate will be outraged, and that when they meet again next Wednesday they will be more disposed to support a conflict a outrance with the Chamber of Deputies than they are now. We trust that the majority in the Chamber of Deputies will disappoint this cynical hope, and show as much moderation in the use of success as they showed temper and self-restraint in conflict,—and though they have already done one slightly imprudent thing, in deferring their vote on the validation of an uncontested election, where the elected member happened to be an official candidate, that is, a candidate openly adopted by the Govern- ment, we believe it will be disappointed. Indeed, if this were a mere test-vote, to try the strength of the deter- mined Republicans in the new Chamber, it is of no con- sequence. But if it indicates a design even to discuss the question of unseating official candidates, as such, and apart from the use of intimidation at their election, it would be a fatal mistake. There is, in fact, no constitutional objection to the practice of naming candidates who have the full confidence of the Government, so long as no unfair influence is brought to bear on the electors to obtain their votes for these candi- dates. It is said, and we do not doubt, truly, that in the elections of 1871 the practice of indicating candidates who had the confidence of the Government was at its maximum ; nor can we imagine any better way of testing the con- fidence of the people in the Government, or its distrust of the Government, than for the Government to associate itself avowedly with the candidature of certain politicians all over the country, and abide by the fate which follows their popular reception. We earnestly trust, therefore, that the vote which adjourned the validation of M. Roques' uncontested election by a majority of 101, solely because M. Rogues was an official candidate, may prove to be nothing more than a display to the Government of the strength of the uncompromising party, and that no attempt will be made to invalidate the election of official candidates, merely as such, though all cases of official abuse of power ought, of course, to be stringently investigated. On moderation of this kind in resisting a Government which has shown itself incapable of under- standing even the meaning of the word, very much will now depend. The Senate are well aware that their repu- tation as a constitutional body largely depends on the way they now treat the crisis which they have had so large a share in producing. At the same time, the very fact that they have had so large a share in producing the crisis will tend to spur on the timid, if they see serious signs of vindictiveness in the Chamber of Deputies. " In for a penny, in for a pound," is a favourite maxim with wrong-doers ; and if they think that they are likely to suffer for the first dissolu- tion, they will be but too likely to try and mend their position by crying " double or quits I" On every ground, then, it becomes the Chamber of Deputies to proceed with the measured moderation of a body which be- lieves that it has France at its back, and not to drive the Senate as well as the Government into the tactics of burning their ships, in order to make it essential that they should either conquer or die. At present, everything in the Senate looks well. The Orleanists stand firm against the policy of support- ing the present Ministry and ignoring the will of France. The Departmental elections of Sunday have had a very, whole- some effect, by proving to the Senate that the most Conservative of the elements to which the biennial renovation of the Senate is entrusted is growing more Liberal, instead of less so, and is much more likely to send the Senators back again to their seats if they stand out against an unconstitutional dissolu- tion than if they sanction it. Looking at the crisis as calmly as we can, it seems to us most improbable that the Senate will again consent to a dissolution, which would launch the country into a second struggle against all the flagrant devices of unscrupulous sub-prefects, conspiring prefects, and the shameless tyrannies of M. de Fourtou. A Senate which consented to such an act would deserve abolition as prompt as the present Government itself, with whose crimes it would then identify itself,—nay, a new series of whose• crimes it would in fact authorise and demand. Are we to suppose- for a moment that, with the evidence which is now pouring into Versailles of the sort of thing which has been done since the dissolution in the vain hope of dominating the 'indomitable will of France, the Senate will take on itself the responsi- bility of virtually absolving the Government from all guilt for what they have done, and even prompting them to do more and worse things of the same kind, in the hope of so. accumulating violence and so complicating fraud as to over- power even the sturdy honesty of the masses of the people ? We do not believe it. But in order to avert even the slightest chance of so calamitous a crime, we hope that M. Gr6vy and his friends will induce the majority of the Lower Chamber to show the Government, by the force of contrast,, the calm, just, and dignified part which it ought to have played.
But if, as we believe, there is no motive which can be brought to bear on the Senate that could by any possibility induce a majority of that body to countenance another penal,--and let us add, not only penal, hurt criminal,—dissolution, then Marshal MacMahon's part will be played out. He has himself told the Government of the Due de Broglie that he will not abandon them. He has assured the prefects and sub- prefects who have been the agents in all the dirty work done in the country, that he will stand by them, and that he will not resign merely because a majority in the Chamber of Deputies is hostile to them. But he has never said that he will remain if the Senate deserts him, and he has said re- peatedly, by implication, that when twp of what he regards as i the three co-ordinate powers in the State are united, the third ought to submit. And in this case, submission would mean resignation. He cannot stay while all the prefects and sub-prefects go who have been fighting for him with so little scruple and so much insolence. He would regard it as a stain on his honour not to share their defeat, And so soon, there- fore, as the Senate refuses to co-operate further with him in the policy of brow-beating the country, we expect to hear of his resignation. And he will resign almost unregretted. The Conservatives have found in him a pliant tool, but not an able leader. The Moderates have lost their con- fidence in his strict integrity of purpose, and that ie the only thing they ever really looked for from him. The Liberals have found in hie the most trying of all adver- saries,—one who was always given credit for not understand- ing the baseness of the policy for which he was made responsible, and yet one who never frankly disowned even the most disgraceful part of that policy. Doubtless they might easily have had a more formidable opponent, but they could hardly have had one to whom it was so difficult to bring home the discreditable acts to which the Marshal's prestige alone lent a certain superficial respectability. If the tenacious Ministry of the Due de Broglie, as is now rumoured, has resigned, that cannot end the crisis. The Marshal must follow his trusted and favoured agents.
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