Spending or Squandering ?
It is not surprising that the Chancellor of the Exchequer, with knowledge of the Supplementary Estimates in his mind, should need a short rest in the country. For the figures, though not alarming, are extremely disturbing so far as the civil side is con- cerned—and it must be remembered that a supplementary Army Estimate is probable. Moreover, while the £221,471,000 by which expenditure in the year 1948-9 will have exceeded estimate is formidable enough, the position is in some respects even worse than it looks. The extra £58,coo,000 which Mr. Bevan needs to make ends meet is in respect of a Health Service which only began work on July 5th, and therefore covers only nine months of the financial year. Moreover, it is certain that the doctors, many of whom are seeing their incomes alarmingly reduced, will have to have additional remuneration. Against that the expenditure
on dental services (£1o,75o,000 above estimate). and ophthalmic services, mainly spectacles (£to,9oo,000 above estimate), may to some extent diminish. But it is clear that the Health Service is going to cost permanently much more than anyone supposed. The other outstanding figure, an extra £52,000,00o for the Ministry of Food, is explained as being due to higher prices to overseas con- sumers, increase in the fat and sugar rations and other causes— the upshot being that food subsidies have now reached the immense figure of £484,000,000. Mr. Dalton's finance was not in many respects better than his successor's, but he did foreshadow some gradual reduction in food subsidies, instead of which they have been allowed to pursue their upward course unimpeded. With an election approaching, it is to be feared that even Sir Stafford Cripps will lack courage to call a halt here. Altogether the £221 million makes heavy inroads into a real surplus estimated at £330 million. Two lessons are driven home—the need for better budgeting by the departments and the need for heavier pruning by the Treasury. If inflation is to be escaped we must mend our ways sharply.
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