TOPICS OF THE 'DAY.
THE MINISTERIAL DECLARATIONS. THE line taken up by the new Government upon all affairs outside Ireland is fairly satisfactory. They will pass the more important measures on hand, such as the Bill creating a Secretary of State for Scotland; the Bill permitting Australia to federate herself ; and the Irish Labourers' Bill ; and they will help on Mr. Collings's Bill for relieving voters disqualified by the acceptance of medical relief. They will bring forward a Budget which, they expect, will pass without contention, or at least without an adverse vote ; and for the rest, they will press all business forward, and wind up the Session as rapidly as may be. They will, moreover, urge on the work of regis- tration, which will this year be cruelly heavy; and they pledge themselves as deeply as men can to hold the new Election at the earliest possible moment, which will, it may be pre- sumed, be the last week of November, the Dissolution, it is officially stated, being impossible until the 17th of that month. All this is satisfactory, and was accepted as such by Mr. Gladstone. This Parliament has exhausted its mandate, a new electoral body has been placed in power, and it is more right, as well as more convenient, to leave the disputed questions of importance to the decision of the new representa- tives. That decision will be at once irreversible and irre- sistible, for it will represent the judgment of a heavy majority of all adult males within the Kingdom. The business, therefore, of the Houses during the time which still remains to them is, as Sir Michael Hicks-Beach said, to clear the road for their successors, and then to allow to themselves, and to the multitude of new candidates who are coming forward, a holi- day before they begin to educate the new constituency.
It was rather on foreign politics, however, than domestic legislation, that the new Ministers were expected to reveal distinctive opinions ; but hitherto they have abstained from doing so. They are evidently not going to plunge into a war with Russia out of mere recklessness. Lord Salisbury takes up the negotiations with that Power where Lord Granville left them ; and both he and Lord R. Churchill express a wish for peace, as well as a hope of obtaining it. There is, it is true, one ominous sentence in Lord Salisbury's speech. He cannot quite get rid of his longing for Candahar as a military position, and declared that Britain "must trust for the defence of her precious interests to preparations skilfully devised and vigorously and rapidly carried out for the defence of our frontier at all points where it is weak, and to bulwarks which shall not only defend the frontier where it is attacked, but which shall stretch out far enough to prevent the tide of war rolling to its foot." We cannot find these far-stretching bulwarks without entering the Ameer's dominions and if the sentence were meant as a pledge of action, we should before Christmas be engaged in the third invasion of Afghanistan. We understand the words, however, to be intended rather as a counsel of perfection than as a menace, and if that interpre- tation is correct, Lord Salisbury's attitude is unobjectionable. It is quite true that the Ameer places his foreign policy at our disposal on condition that we secure to him the Pass of Zulfikar, and quite right, therefore, to make of his possession of that Pass an indispensable condition of any treaty. If Russia chooses to fight on that ground—which we disbelieve —that is her affair, for England cannot recede without a breach of faith, and would not have done so had Mr. Gladstone remained at the head of affairs. As to "rapid and vigorous preparations," the fortification of the north-western frontier, if it has to be completed, may as well be completed now, and the more thorough the work, the fewer will be the panics and the less the temptation to advance into Afghanistan. The twenty millions wasted in that second invasion would have sufficed not only to fortify the Passes, but to complete the frontier railway and to place our second line, the river Indus, in a condition of impregnable defence. The cost of the works will be con- siderable, but it must be borne ; and it must not be forgotten that if the fortresses are really strong, it will not be neces- sary to make those ruinous additions to the permanent Army in India which we regret to see so many journals assume to be indispensable. If ever we have to face a popular revolt in India, it will be on a question of taxation ; and if we are to add six millions a year to the expenditure on the Army, fresh taxation, and that of a searching and oppressive character, will be indispensable. The plan of fortifying the frontier will be the cheapest in the end, if only because the Government, being secure against a coup de main, can keep its troops at home until the necessity actually arises.
If there is nothing hidden in that ominous sentence about, stretching bulwarks, Lord Salisbury may be trusted for the time with India ; and although Mr. Gladstone is obviously and naturally suspicious upon this point, we see nothing as yet to indicate any new departure in Egypt. There is a dangerous. sentence or two in Lord Salisbury's speech about the Soudan and it is impossible to forget that both he and Lord Randolph Churchill have denounced Lord Granville's action ; but as yet they both agree to accept accomplished facts. They both regret the abandonment of Dongola, Lord Randolph being especially severe upon a retreat which he seems to think has been accompanied by depopulation, the agricultural classes having, according to him, retired with the troops—a palpable error ; but both agree that Dongola cannot be reoccupied. Both are contemplating some settlement of the Soudan other than that of leaving it to its own people, but neither are yet certain what this settlement is to be. Lord Salisbury talks of some" other assistance" which he may possibly call in or accept for the arrangement of Soudanese affairs; but if he alluded to Italy, he only accepted an. idea of the late Government ; and if he alluded to Turkey, he is only on the threshold of a sterile negotiation. The Sultan does not want to occupy deserts, and Parliament will not vote bribes to the Sultan. We have little fear in that direction, at all events while Parliament is sitting, and upon Egypt itself Lord Salisbury is wisely reticent. If he is contemplating any stroke, he has as yet given no hint of his intention. On the contrary, he carefully disclaims the idea attributed to him of removing the present Khedive, declares the financial situation to be the most pressing of all difficulties and announces that the only mode of removing the evils Which exist in Egypt is by steadily attacking them through a long-continued but "cautious and circumspect" line of action. It is most significant that he ended his references to Egypt by hoping' that for the remainder of its short life this Parliament might have no history,— a remark which showed that whatever his designs he does not intend to prosecute them for the present, but will content himself with maturing his plans, and possibly selecting agents for their execution.
Too much must not, of course, be made of Lord Salisbury's suavity and moderation. The House of Commons is so sick of its position, which is very much that of a man who, knowing himself to be dying of heart-complaint, is compelled to occupy himself with the details of his agents' accounts, and is getting through business so fast that it may be possible to prorogue Parliament, at the latest, by the middle of August. The Government will then have three clear months in which to work its will, and the temptation to do something striking, something which electors will understand to involve a triumph, will be very great. If either Lord Salisbury or Lord Randolph could see his way clearly to such a result, no scruples, we may be sure, would stand in their path. The difficulty, however, of doing anything during an interregnum is considerable ; the Continental Powers are seriously divided about Egypt, the health of the Emperor of Germany hampers the action of Prince Bismarck, and above all, the prorogation of Parliament does not reduce Mr. Gladstone to silence. He has renewed his declaration of distaste to any permanent occu- pation of Egypt, and Lord Salisbury will no more like to compel his great rival to stump England pouring out denun- ciatory speeches, than he will like to provoke him to defiance while the House of Commons is still at his disposal. The effect of a "grand stroke" upon the elections might, in that case, be disastrous instead of beneficial to the Tories, and the Liberals might return to power pledged to the immediate evacuation of the Nile Valley. We incline to believe, therefore, that until the elections the new Government will be moderate, will take credit for moderation and good management, and will confine itself to arrangements which would enable it to act with decision should the electors prove unexpectedly favourable. The only considerable fact which militates against that theory is that Lord Salisbury told his own party, when announcing that he should accept power, that he was certain they would not wish for "a timid policy -" but that was before he had demanded guarantees, and had discovered all the difficulties of the Egyptian situation. The calm way in which he announced on Monday that Tewfik had always been loyal, and that, there- fore, the British Government was bound "in honour" to protect him, indicates the extent of the change which even a few hours of office may make in the opinions of a statesman responsible for his acts.
Previous page
