Time to be bold
Robin Oakley
It was not, perhaps, the wisest inquiry ever made by an international lawyer when the beleaguered David Mills emerged from his home the other day into the media stakeout and knocked off his wing mirror in a collision with a reporter’s car. ‘Who’s going to pay for this, then?’ the now estranged husband of the culture secretary asked the clustering media, only to be greeted by an unsympathetic chorus of ‘Berlusconi!’ It is not only politicians’ spouses, of course, who have been known to be less than financially candid with their other halves. One distinguished journalist once implored me not to reveal to his wife that he had bought a second racehorse when he was barely past confessing to the first, and after bad weeks at the track I do like to beat Mrs Oakley to the doormat on the day my bookie’s account arrives.
I guess there were days, too, when Irish trainer Noel Meade used to prefer to meet the postman personally. In the latest Thoroughbred Owner and Breeder he confesses that, in his betting days, he used to think that if you couldn’t buy a decent car with your winnings there was no point. So he would plan eight or ten bets a year, have two or three grand on each, and invariably they got beat. Then would follow a series of smaller bets for a few hundred to recover the two or three grand. ‘Often I would get the money back. But I never got that new car.’ Never mind, with Cheltenham week ahead it is time to dream and to be bold. And since Spectator readers, at least those who get their copies from a news-stand, are this week being offered free my guide to the glories of the Festival, the least I can do is to try to provide a few winners to go with it, even for those who don’t get their stake money courtesy of Signor Berlusconi.
Hopefully, some readers will be starting with funds in hand. Of our Twelve to Follow, Montgermont has obliged recently at 17–2 and Senorita Rumbalita at 11–2. After visiting Emma Lavelle’s yard I counselled support for Presenting Express, who won nicely at Newbury last Saturday at 9–2, the day after Nicky Henderson’s Temoin, recommended after Sandown, had toyed with his field to win at 7–2.
So how might we play up those funds? The Gold Cup is the most open for years, but it is easier to determine what is unlikely to win. Of the home contenders, Kingscliff now seems too moody, Sir Rembrandt too slow. Take the Stand was second last year but only Bregawn and The Fellow in living memory have followed a placing with a victory. Iris’s Gift and One Knight can’t be trusted to jump round. Best of the home team are Philip Hobbs’s Monkerhostin, who gave Kicking King a fright in the King George, and Martin Pipe’s Celestial Gold. He lacks a prep race but the long-time champion trainer has to win a Gold Cup sometime.
Discussing with Henrietta Knight and her husband Terry Biddlecombe at Newbury who might take the crown they won three times with Best Mate, I found Terry sweet on the Irish hope Beef or Salmon despite his three previous failures in the race. Trainer Michael Hourigan says the horse is pain-free for the first time in a long while, but for me he will need softer ground than is likely. I think this year’s likeliest winner from abroad is François Doumen’s L’Ami, the Frenchman who tuned up perfectly at Sandown the other day. My final choice? Celestial Gold, to win from L’Ami and Monkerhostin.
Ireland certainly dominates the Champion Hurdle, despite the absence through injury of Harchibald and Feathard Lady and the fact that the winner for the past two years, Hardy Eustace, trailed in last in his prep race. Brave Inca’s trainer Colm Murphy did not dare to dream that Tony McCoy would be free to partner his horse but the sad accident which required Jonjo O’Neill’s Lingo to be put down has freed up the champion. One diehard riding another, McCoy says of his partner, ‘He is much fitter and harder than when I first rode him at Punchestown last season. He will take a lot of beating.’ Look no further than Brave Inca. Another Irishman, Mac’s Joy, could give him a race but if you want something at a long price then England’s Briareus and Germany’s Fiepe’s Shuffle could bring home some decent place money.
Runners at this year’s Cheltenham will be eyeballed as they go out to race by a new statue of Best Mate at the end of the paddock. If that brings a tear to Henrietta Knight’s eye, they will hopefully be tears of joy after the Arkle. Racing Demon, her first runner in the racer, oozes class and is my banker of the meeting. Take Voy Por Ustedes for the forecast.
Paul Nicholls thinks he has the horse in Kauto Star to lead a new generation of two-milers and beat the now 12-year-old Moscow Flyer in the Queen Mother Champion Chase. Fair enough, since Kauto Star won the Tingle Creek in only his fourth race over fences. But he might be given a race of it by Mouse Morris’s Fota Island, a lightly jumped ten-year-old who loves Cheltenham and comes good in the spring.
Like Best Mate, Rooster Booster is sadly no longer with us. But a new grey in those familiar Terry Warner colours, Detroit City, could win the Triumph Hurdle for Philip Hobbs. And in the Champion Bumper it is difficult to look beyond the five-strong contingent fielded by Willie Mullins, who has won the race five times. All have won in Ireland, but I am told Irish Invader was the one with the most scope for improvement.
Best outsider of the meeting? Dunbrody Millar in the William Hill Handicap Chase. May they all return safe.
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