Dr. Adenauer's Victory By ERNST FRIEDLAENDER
Hamburg.
IT was a safe bet, as far back as July, to predict a second term for Dr. Adenauer as Chancellor of the Federal Republic of Germany. But even on the morning of election-day, no one, including Dr. Adenauer himself, expected the overwhelming victory which twenty-four hours later became an established reality. For the first time in the short history of German democracy, including the era of the Weimar Republic, a single political party has gained a majority in Parliament. The Christian Democratic Union attained this goal by the narrowest of margins, winning 244 seats out of a total of 487. Naturally, it is not possible to base a one-party government on a majority of one. But such a government is as little contemplated now as it was before the elections. There, will be another coalition, which is the normal type of government for a nation with a proportional representation system and the consequent multiplicity of parties.
But thi's is not the whole story of the 1953 elections. When the first Bundestag assembled four years ago, Dr. Adenauer was elected Chancellor on the basis of 202 votes in his favour which gave him by one single vote the absolute majority pre- scribed by the constitution. At that time not only Dr. Schumacher's Socialists but virtually all other parties outside the coalition were in opposition to• the .Government. This was true of the Catholic Centre Party and also of the different smaller groups listed among " other parties," which included fifteen Communists, five ultra-nationalists with neo-Nazi .ten- dencies, two Bavarian factions with seventeen and twelve members respectively, and four others. Some of these various opponents supported the coalition later on, others openly joined one of the coalition parties, but the real change came with Sunday's elections. They brought a massacre of the small factions, old and new. There will be not a single Communist, not a single representative of any neo-Nazi party and no special Bavarian group in the new Bundestag. Only the Catholic Centre party has survived with three members compared with ten in 1949, and these have now become a mere appendage of the Christian Democrats, pledged to support Dr. Adenauer's second bid for the Chancellorship.
All this goes to show that of the 1949 opposition only the Socialists are left in the field in 1953. All their former allies have disappeared from the scene. The Socialists, now under 011enhauer's leadership, have almost maintained their relative strength of 1949. With 150 seats in the second and greater Bundestag they represent 30.8 per cent. of the total as com- pared with 32.6 per cent. in the first Bundestag. They can even claim that apart from the Christian Democrats, who polled five million more votes in 1953 than in 1949, they are the only, other political party with an absolute gain, amount- ing to one million votes, compared with 1949. As a matter of fact, however, the Social Democrats are the true losers of these elections. Not only have they failed to beat the Christian Democrats at the polls, which was their aim,' but they have also remained below the vital one third of the total which is necessary to block changes in the constitution and to appeal to the Supreme Constitutional Court at Karlsruhe. True, the SPD has been short of this one third ever since 1949, but until now they could always rely on other groups to join them in their opposition to Dr. Adenauer's Government. Now, all these groups have been reduced to zero, and this indirect loss completes 011enhauer's defeat.
The only unknown factor in this connection lies in the sole newcomer to the Bundestag—the refugee party and its twenty-seven seats, which is considerably below general expec- tations. This recently re-named German Block (BHE) repre- sents no particular political convictions—neither conser ratiye nor socialist nor liberal—but solely the interests of one, group of the population, the refugees. This party is therefore pre- Pared to sell its support to the highest bidder. It can give Dr. Adenauer the much needed additional strength in order to command a two-thirds majority and to change the constitution. It can also support 011enhauer and, together with the Socialists, block this two-thirds majority. It seems likely, at present, that Dr. Adenauer has more to offer than the leader of the opposition. The Chancellor—there is not the slightest doubt about his re-election by the new Bundestag—will, most likely, continue with his former coalition and look for assistance from time to time from the Refugee Party, particularly where the issues of foreign policy are concerned. A simple new article in the constitution saying that the sovereign rights of the Federal Republic extend to matters of defence would once and for all solve the tangle of Karlsruhe. It is also not impossible that Dr. Adenauer may, be willing and able to persuade the Refugee Party to join his coalition.
Dr. Adenauer is now infinitely stronger with his coalition than he was in 1949. He is also infinitely stronger within his coalition. -He has won these elections almost singlehanded. The posters everywhere in the election campaign, which showed his picture and confidently pronounced, Germany votes for Adenauer," spoke the truth. Germany has voted for Aderiauer rather than for a party programme. Germany has endorsed, strongly endorsed, the foreign and economic policies of the Government led by the Chancellor. This means European integration and German re-unification as two non-contradictory goals. It means unwavering allegiance to the. West. It means private enterprise and free trade, economic recovery and social improvement. Germany's " grand old man " symbolises all that in the eyes of the German population. He has achieved true popularity—which is not to be confused with the idolatry of the Hitler era.
The German voter has shown remarkable common sense, a quality heretofore not very typical of the national character. Eighty-six per cent. of those eligible to vote went to the polls as compared with 78.5 per cent. in 1949. The non-political German in general and the non-political younger generation in particular seems to be a thing of the past. The refusal to vote for splinter groups and for extremist political tendencies is not to be overlooked. The elections showed a decided trend towards concentration. Only six parties survived, and if the Centre Party is counted as part of the Christian Democratic Union, the number is reduced to five. All of these parties are within the democratic concept. More than that, the two most irreproachable parties emerged the strongest; CDU and SPD together now represent 81 per cent., of the Bundestag as compared with 67 per cent. in 1949. this is probably the nearest approach to a two-party system which can be achieved under the proportional system of reprekentation. Only two large parties, not more than three smaller parties—this shows a degree of concentration which is new in German parliamen- tary history. This again has helped to bring about a convincing majority and the prospect of a stable government.
It almost .looks too good to be true. Very likely, the 1953 elections cannot be repeated in the future. They have been exceptional in many respects. It cannot be denied that there is no one in sight who has given proof of being able to succeed Dr. Adenauer, either as Chancellor or as Foreign Minister or even as leader of the Christian Democratic Union. The Socialists lack Leadership at present. Political talent at the top remains rare in Germany. As to the future relations between government and Opposition, the outlook is 'not very good. The so-called Great Coalition between Socialists and Christian Democrats is, of course, now out of the question. A common foreign policy is, so far, not on the political horizon. On the whole, the victorious majority will need_ moderation in order to be successful. The defeated minority, on the other hand, will have to re-examine opposition methods in order to become constructive. ,The tasks which lie ahead can only be mastered by a government which keeps clear of complacency as well as of intolerance and by an opposition which does not drift into becoming embittered and spiteful.
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