THE DAUGHTER AND THE USURPER
This week Benazir Bhutto returns to of avenging her father's death
THEY sang farewell the last time Benazir Bhutto left Britain for Pakistan. The cham- ber of the Oxford Union exploded as a raucous rendition of 'Don't Cry for me Islamabad' brought the curtain down on her presidency. And she laughed till she Cried.
That was in 1977. Bigger and better Plaudits, it was thought, awaited her at home. Her father, Zulfikar Ali Bhutto, had just won a second election as prime minister. Benazir was said to be his chosen heir, but the succession still seemed a long Way off. Before that would come the fun of living at 70 Clifton, Karachi. The sprawl- ing, white colonial bungalow, with its palm trees and engraved brass name-plates, has been the Bhutto family home for genera- tions. Here her new life of carefree pri- vilege was expected to commence. History, however, turned out different- ly. Within a week of Benazir's return her father was deposed by a military coup. Two years later he was hanged, having first been found guilty of an allegedly trumped- uP charge of murder. By the time Benazir got to 70 Clifton, the military regime had declared it a jail. For much of the next seven years she was not free to leave. When she did it was to return to London in exile.
This week, almost a decade later, Ben- azir Bhutto again makes the journey home from London. Now, however, it is with a difference. General Zia is the man who is in power, his army appears loyal and a new generation of post-Bhutto civil- ian politicians has been placed in govern- ,111. en.l• The general's 'democracy' is func- ,uoning, even if it is fraudulent. The task of 32-Year-old the regime has fallen to the 32-Year-old politician. Her intention is to create a popular Aquino-style movement which will force General Zia to call fresh elections four Years ears ahead of time and thus allow her, at the head of this people's power, to win them. Her party has already published a punishing schedule of political rallies and conferences she is to address. They will take her on a rabble-rousing tour of Pakistan.
But the hundreds of thousands who will gather to hear her will have to be con- verted into a conscious and unstoppable movement if she is to succeed. That is the real target before her. Can Benazir Bhutto do it?
On her side she has the myth of the Bhutto name. In Pakistan it is possessed of a romance and a reputation that has grown immeasurably since the hanging. Benazir's remarkable powers of oratory — even if she occasionally sounds strident — and her determination to succeed could give this legend emotional poignancy as well as political potency. She also has behind her Pakistan's biggest political party. Yet in- creasingly the People's Party seems a paper asset. It may be large but it is poorly organised; its ranks are divided; its appeal limited by personal and provincial loyal- ties. Benazir will have first to unite this party.
Against her lies the power of the state. General Zia has created a system of civilian politicians and military strongmen that still has four-fifths of its term to run before it must face the people. Initially, they may be prepared to allow Benazir the freedom to challenge them, if only as a means of establishing their own real strength. But if that challenge becomes a credible threat they are unlikely to give in. Instead, Benazir Bhutto could find herself back in jail at 70 Clifton, whilst General Zia restores the full severity of martial law.
In fact, it will be a game of double bluff that the usurper and the daughter will seek to play with each other. The general will give Benazir all the opportunity he can to rouse the people, provided he is confident she will fail. For in that event the spirit of Zulfikar Ali Bhutto will finally have passed into history and Zia will be able to retire in peace. For her part, Benazir will try to excite as much popular fervour as she can, without being arrested, provided she knows that she can actually do it. When she realises she cannot she will swiftly opt for a deliberate course of provocation that will end either with detention in Clifton or exile back in London. That way she will have preserved the family name for another try another day.
What this means is that Benazir Bhutto cannot win, but she cannot lose either, whilst the attempt can only be good for her. For if she does look like winning the general will stop her and if she doesn't look like winning she will force him to jail her. General Zia, on the other hand, can win, but she can also lose, and if he has to arrest or exile Benazir Bhutto his victory may only be pyrrhic. For once it becomes apparent that his regime cannot withstand the assault of the Bhuttos and the mass appeal they generate then it will also be irrevocably clear that with the next push or the one after that he will go.
Put somewhat differently, what this also seems to imply is that suddenly the people of Pakistan, perhaps even unknown to themselves, could be about to become the star performers in their own political drama. For it is their response, their verdict on the battle between the daughter and the usurper, that will determine not only the Bhutto future but also the pros- pects of a Zia survival. In the past, whenever they have had the opportunity, they have always chosen to support the democratic alternative. Yet it is possible that this time, if they believe that rallying to Benazir Bhutto's call will only result in bringing on the full wrath of military rule, they may prefer to support the slower, even at times deceptive, pursuit of demo- cracy General Zia seems to offer. But then there have been occasions when, con- fronted with similar choices, they have opted for risk. In 1969 Zulfikar Ali Bhutto awakened a popular spirit of rebellion when he aroused the Pakistani masses to overthrow the Ayub Khan military dicta- torship. Perhaps this year his daughter may strike a similar chord.
Benazir, of course, is certain she will. It is a self-assured and confident young woman who will step off the plane onto the tarmac at Lahore Airport and begin the struggle for full democracy in Pakistan. She believes that 1986 has been a bad year for dictators and that Zia's luck cannot hold forever. An •il if courage and fortitude are what it needs to win the people's support she has them in plenty. But if not, then age at least is still on her side. She will be there to try again and again and yet again.
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