THE DIFFICULTIES OF GERMANY.
017R countrymen are saying, sometimes with a note of alarm in their voices, that Germany is rushing forward under the guidance of her Emperor to a position in which she will be a formidable rival to Great Britain ; but that is not quite the view of observant Germans. They suspect that Germany is getting a little strained. The Emperor is an able man and, above all, a zealous one, but the effects of his feverish activity, though it has stimulated the life of Germany, are not all beneficial. He has absorbed both the initiative and the veto in himself so completely that all other important persons have become phonographs, either silent or repeating only the thoughts he has breathed upon their surfaces. With the possible but not yet proved exception of Count von Billow, there are no great men in Germany any more, or if they exist they feel it expedient to efface themselves. If the Emperor died—and even he is mortal—or fell sick, or for any reason ceased to attend to his overwhelming mass of duties, Germany would lie like a fine watch whose main- spring has slipped or broken. The first Emperor, though not his grandson's equal in intellectual power, gathered great men around him, so that when he disappeared the machinery went on as if the motive force were intact. That will not be the case when William II. passes, and those who admire him most feel that too much has come to depend upon one brain, that it might be impossible in his absence to keep the policy of Germany continuous and energetic. Germans grow restless when he is out of Germany, even for a short holiday, as if they felt the heart of the country beating slower. He has, it must be remembered, as yet founded nothing, not even a transmarine dominion. The German colonies in Africa are so far failures, producing no money and attracting no colonists, while the far more hopeful enterprise in China has as yet not succeeded. Germany has no dominion in China which really pays, and no clear prospect of obtaining any. The great expedition to Pekin, which was to change the face of the Far Eastern world, has as yet only yielded a doubtful promise that its costs shall be paid back. Her external trade has increased her carrying trade, and her Fleet, which is to protect them both, will increase greatly if the necessary expenses can be borne, but the naval stations, which are to be the bases for naval enter- prise, have not bean obtained, while of the wide land which is to relieve the congestion of German population no square foot has yet been secured. The "dumping ground" is still to seek, and this "dumping ground" is more necessary to Germany than even to Great Britain, for her population increases faster and has less to live on. As yet it is impossible to say that the Emperor, with all his insight and his courage, has done more than prepare the way for future successes, which may or may not arrive, but which in any case are terribly dependent upon his personal support. In internal affairs the prospect is not even quite so good. The Army has been made stronger than it was, but neither French nor Russians think it comparatively stronger than it was in 1870, one grand result of the Emperor's desire to attain to military perfection having been to develop new military energy in all the States around, even the Austrian system having been quickened by it into new life, while the French is almost bursting with its new blood. Of new soldiers of genius there is as yet no sign, while there is some reason to believe that the military ideas of 1870 have hardened into axioms, which in actual conflict may prove inapplicable. War, nowadays, is like a game of cribbage, in which it is useless to win many points if your adversary is able to win them too. The new preparations have demanded new expendi- ture, new taxes have been imposed, and the new wealth which was to meet them is not immediately available. The expansion of industry, on which such hopes have been built, turns out to be partly fictitious. Great efforts are being made to conceal the truth, but all the evidence creates a belief that industrial speculation in Germany has been pushed on too fast. There has been a mania for new companies and insufficient markets for their goods. While the banks could sustain the companies, feeding them with cheap money, they did fairly well, but the banks which are sound are unable to continue that practice, and the industrial concerns, already affected by the fall in prices caused by overproduction, are almost at a standstill. No companies are paying what they did, and a great many will pay nothing, to the despair of shareholders, who usually pur- chased the shares with money borrowed on mortgages, which also, owing to the pressure, are called in. There is, in fact, no money easily procurable anywhere, for Germany is naturally a poor country with a soil only moderately fertile, and she has hr.d no time to accumulate the vast capital which in Great Britain, America, and France enables the population to tide over a rush of misfortune and wait for better times. As the first thing hoped for from the Emperor was that his policy would enrich all classes, the result is an increase of discontent and. its correlative Socialism, a gathering impatience of the heavy taxation, and a disposition to resist all further demands, however needful new supplies may be to perfect the plans on which the Emperor's heart is set. As, moreover, the Conserva- tive classes have suffered most, those classes are most re- sentful, and the Imperial Government finds itself deprived of their support just when it is most urgently required.
The storm will pass after a time ; but Germans, like all people with much cultivation and little money, keenly feel pecuniary losses. There will be nothing akin to Revolution even in the English sense of that word, society being much too strongly organised, and the strength of Parliament too little developed, but confidence in the Emperor has been shaken, criticism will be sharper, and the pressure of hostile opinion in the confederate States will be felt more heavily by the central Government. The Emperor will be compelled to move more slowly, and, at least delay his creation of a new Navy and a system of canals ; while he will be forced to greater caution in his foreign policy. In that department of the State he is legally independent, but it is not easy to make treaties which will impoverish classes already irritated by pecuniary losses, it is impossible to prevent distrust growing up among allies, and it is, above all, hard with a people already sullen to carry out energetically a policy which at heart they regard with dislike or suspicion. That policy, which is to build up by transmarine adventure a power to be felt throughout the world, may be a wise one, but it can only be carried out by a willingness to make sacrifices, and Germans begin to think the sacrifices too great already. Germans will see, we think, at home a recrudescence of Parliamentary opposition, and abroad a great reluctance to be on bad terms with the greater maritime Powers, who can spoil all the work—it is not really much—that has been already accomplished. All that is favourable to peace, which is never so much in danger as when the Emperor thinks the time has arrived for one of his great strokes, but it is not favourable to the German dream of claiming at least a share in the supremacy of the seas.
Previous page
