THE NEW ERA AND THE NEW MAN.
WE recommend to all serious students of international affairs the very striking article entitled "The Passing of the Status Quo" (from a, correspondent) which appears in the Times of Wednesday. That article shows in the clearest possible way how fundamental has been the alteration in the political configuration of the European States during the past year. It shows, further, that not only has the situation changed, but that "a new foot is on the earth" of diplomacy, and that the world has to deal with a new man, whose aims and aspirations are, for the present at any rate, something of a mystery, and whose methods are very different from those of the conventional diplomatist. The new man, we need hardly say, is Baron von Aehrenthal, the Austro-Hungarian Minister of Foreign Affairs.
The death-knell of the old staks pro, Ivo the Times correspondent points out, was not sounded by the Turkish Revolution alone. The change had begun, though the world aid not realise the fact, when in January, 1908, Baron von Aehrenthal launched his scheme for the Novi Bazar Railway. That was the first indication of the new polioy,—under which Austria, instead of using all her influence to maintain the status quo in the Balkans and elsewhere, began to work towards what had hitherto been regarded as a mere dream of a comprehensive Balkan and South Slav policy, in which Austria-Hungary, or, rather, the Hapsburg dynasty, was " cast " to play the chief role in the readjustment of the map of South- Eastern Europe. In construing that policy and its recent developments it must never be forgotten that when it took practical shape in the brain of Baron von Aehrenthal the most conspicuous factor in the present situation did not exist. The policy was conceived before the Turkish Revolution, and when events seemed to point to the gradual downfall of Abd-ul-Hamid and. the old regime, and so to the gradual extinction of Turkey as an effective European Power. But though the policy was based urn the premiss of the essential weakness of Turkey, it was confronted in the first six months of its career by the Turkish Revolution and the revival—whether temporary, or not remains, of course, to be seen—of life and energy in what before had been considered the most hopelessly decadent of decadent Empires. The new man aed the new policy were suddenly brought face to face with the new regime in Turkey and the new men of the Committee of Union and Progress.
On the consummation of the Turkish Revolution Baron von Aehrenthal had two courses open to him. He might either suspend or abandon his policy and await events, or he might assume that the Turkish Revolution was a passing phase, that nothing was radically altered, and that, indeed, the final break-up of the Turkish Empire on which he was counting would in the long run be aecelerated rather than postponed. To judge from his opts, Baron von Aehrenthal assumed. that the latter was the true view of the situation, and that the Constitutional Revolution in Turkey was merely a stage in the fall of the Ottoman Empire. Therefore the policy he had sketched was pot extinguished, but rather justified, by what had taken place at Constantinople. Accordingly. the Austro-Hungarian Foreign Office pursued the policy which had been thought out, and even begun, before the downfall of the Ha,midian regime.
It is impossible to do justice to Baron von Aehrenthal's policy in a phrase or a sentence, and we have not the space to describe it in detail. Light may, however, perhaps be thrown upon it by remembering Carteret's declaration that it was his business as Foreign Minister of England to knock the heads of the European Monarchs together in order to promote the interests of his own country. In the last resort Baron von Aehrenthal's policy is so to manipulate "the seething rot" of the Balkans that when it boils over or is overthrown the best piece of the meat and the richest gravy shall fall into the Austrian platter. To accomplish his design Baron von Aehrenthal has many instruments. The proper uses of each he believes himself to know thoroughly, and. each of thein he hopes to employ at the right moment and in the right way. One instrument is the Emperor's personal position in Europe as the high-minded, peace-loving Monarch, whose word is as good as his bond. Another ie the Triple Alliance, and the necessity under which Germany lies to keep that Alliance intact, —a necessity which has grown all the greater since Russia has drifted away freaa Germany so completely, and. has entered into new relations with Britain and a closer version of the old relations with France. Again, Italy's better relations with France, and continued good relations with Britain, make the need for sticking close to Austria-Hungary all the more imperative. Yet another instrument, connected with the last, though of a, very different character, is the great problem of the South Slays, thoir aspirations and ambitiens. On the snrfa.ce it may seem m if no Power bnt Russia could effectually engage the sympathies of the South Slays. Peron von Aehrenthal knows or thinks he knows, better. He believes that in the end the South Slays can be taught to believe that it is hater lausineaa or them to rely ori Austria-Hungary—already a haltaal*V Einlaili—Rthan en 'Usti& The prepaasestione of the Heir-Apparent to the throne of Austria-Hungary, the Archduke Francis Ferdinand, form yet another powerful instrument. The Heir-Apparent is a Hapsburg dynast first and foremost ; but has he not a wife of Slav race, and does he not dream of a Slav Empire under the sceptre of his house ? His uncle rules over a Dual Monarchy. Why should he not rule over one with a triple crown ?
The head of the Hapsburgs is Emperor of Austria and King of Hungary. Why should not the next Emperor be also Tsar of a Greater Servia, ? Yet another instru- ment of immense weight, as Baron von Aehrenthal no doubt sincerely believes, is that provided. by the Roman Church. Austria-Hungary remains the last stronghold of the Roman Church, and that Church is, curiously enough, strongest in those regions where otherwise the nexus of empire is weakest,—in the regions where the Slays form the bulk of the population. Only a comparatively small portion of the Austrian Slays belong to the Orthodox Church. Lastly, in the weakness, or presumed weakness, of Italy, and in the conflicting ambitions, jealousies, and prejudices of the smaller Balkan States, other instruments are discovered. Bulgarians, Greeks, Servians, Roumanians, Montenegrins, Albanians, and. Macedonians all hate each other, and yet are all "on the make," and therefore may be used. by a skilful statesman. They, afford the Bismarckian diplomat—for such is Baron von Aehrenthal's conception of himself—the very opportunity he needs.
We must leave our, readers to study at first hand the exceedingly striking account of Baron von Aehrenthal's personality which is to be found in the Times article.
We can only summarise it very roughly by saying that Baron von Aehrenthal is a disciple, as well as an ardent admirer, of Bismarck, and that he holds that there is no reason why, taking into account the differences necessarily involved in the new circumstances, he should not follow in the footsteps of the man whose hand he is said to have kissed in a moment of youthful enthusiasm. Will the new Bismarck succeed, or is he destined to find that he is not equal to the task he has set himself, and that, instead of turning the dangerous and complicated situation of South-Eastern Europe to the advantage of his country and of his masters, he has ruined Austria-Hungary and. brought to the ground. that wonderful structure of States and peoples which men call the Austrian Empire ? Who can tell ? None but a very rash man would dare to prophesy the fate which awaits Baron von Aehrenthal. For ourselves—but of course it is only a guess—we are inclined to believe that he will turn out to be an Alberoni rather than a Bismarck. At present, however, all we can do is to watch him, and to hope that our statesmen will be on the alert not to be involved in the smash, if a smash there is ; for if it comes it will be on the most terrific scale. Meantime there is no reason, because Baron von Aehrenthal is subtle and ambitious, and because the Hapsburgs place, their fortunes in his bands, that we should quarrel with either him or them. This country has always been on friendly terms with Austria-Hungary, and we sincerely hope it will remain so, provided only that no attempt is made to injure the interests of those to whom we are pledged in honour.
If Baron von Aehrenthal pursues an aggressively anti- Russian policy or anti-Turkish policy, or if his schemes for the development of a new .Austro-Servian Empire. end in fact, though not in name, in the persecution of the Southern Slays and the destruction of their just rights, he is bound sooner or later to bring his country and ours into a position of hostility. If, 94 the other, hand, he can carry out hi a policy, as lie professes he can, without essential injury to Russia or Turkey or the smaller Balkan States, and if he does no violence to Italy (the nominal ally of Austria-Hungary, but a Power which will always command the friendship and help of Britain), this country will have no reason to oppose him. We cannot assent to any violent attempt to overthrow the balance of power in the Balkans or in the rest of Europe, or to the political proscription of the Southern Slays. These limitations respected, we have, however, neither the right nor the wish to interfere with the policy of Austria- Hungary. The sooner we and Austria-Hungary can return to the old position of mutual trust and amity, the better the British people and she British Government will be pleased.
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