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A TASK ONLY FOR THE PM
The Ulster peace process is once again in danger, because of the IRA's refusal to decommission its weaponry. Insolently insisting that it has no hand in the decision, Sinn Fein is demanding that its representa- tives should be allowed to sit in the new Executive: a unique and brazen use of schizophrenia as a political alibi. This is unacceptable to the Unionists, as it ought to be, and there is no sign of a compromise. On the contrary: although many Republi- cans do want peace, the evidence suggests that the IRA's position is hardening. Although the Good Friday Agreement insisted that there must be an end to the politics of threat in Ulster, some leading Provos have fastened on to the absence of a specific timetable for decommissioning. Some, indeed, are now insisting that it will never happen. In that case, the Unionists could never be expected to sit in an Execu- tive with Sinn Fein members. Some Provos are making another malign calculation. Next year, the Patten Commis- sion on the Royal Ulster Constabulary is due to report. It is all too likely that Mr Patten's recommendations will pay scant respect to the RUC's heroic record of ser- vice, sacrifice and success, and in some IRA circles there is a proposal to use decommis- sioning as a bargaining device, both to enforce any concessions that Mr Patten Plight recommend and to insist that further humiliation should be inflicted upon the RUC.
If the IRA manages to procrastinate on decommissioning until after the Patten report has appeared, a most dangerous degree of polarisation could easily ensue. But long before then, the new Assembly would have collapsed, and with it Mr Trim- °Lie. s brand of moderate Unionist leader- 8,11113. He would have gone the way of Brian Faulkner, and, as with Mr Faulkner, a gen- eration's hopes of peace would have gone With him. ,, There is only one man who can ensure that this impasse does not become critical: 1`11, this Blair. The Provos are calculating that, if Ibis settlement were to founder, he would ini.. pose a new one which would be far less !eceptable to Unionists. They are also cal- canlating that Mr Blair might not resist their attempts to destroy the RUC. There are good reasons to believe that the Provos have miscalculated, and misun- derstand Mr Blair. There is no suggestion that he is anti-Unionist and, over the past few years, he has developed a high regard for David Trimble, who will have complet- ed his political education on the RUC.
But Mr Blair must now manifest that high regard well beyond the drawing-rooms of Downing Street; he must let the world know that he is 100 per cent behind the man he often refers to as 'my good friend David', and that under no circumstances would he ever impose a settlement in Ulster which Mr Trimble would find unac- ceptable.
The PM could also do more. By halting any further release of IRA prisoners until there is significant progress on decommis- sioning, he might be able to mobilise signif- icant sections of the Republican community to put pressure on the hardliners.
Confronted by impasse in Ulster, most mainland politicians tend to back away from involvement, but, on this occasion, that impulse must be resisted. Mr Blair will remember that it was only his intervention which made the Good Friday Agreement possible. Now that the Executive, that Agreement's first fruit, is in mortal danger, it is time for a renewed intervention.
Matters are coming to a crisis in Ulster partly because the IRA is misreading the British government's intentions. There is only one man who could correct that: Tony Blair. But if he does not act soon, it could be too late.
One minute they are masters of the universe and the next victims of circum- stance. The steely-eyed bankers who rule the glass towers in the City of London crumple like cardboard cut-outs when faced by the prospect of prison for a little ill-judged, white-collar crime. Until recent- ly, the pink rosette for bravura penitential performance was held by Ernest Saunders, whose apparent recovery from the severe case of Alzheimer's that sprang him from jail has impressed medical researchers everywhere.
Now, however, his laurels have been snatched by the delicate hands of Peter Young, whose stint as an investment man- ager at Morgan Grenfell came to end when his funds lost £220 million. Accused of fraud, 'Elizabeth' appeared at the City of London magistrates court dressed as a woman, clutching a handbag and wearing red lipstick, a flowery skirt and beige tights. His wife has filed for divorce.
In the endless quest for victim status, Ron Davies missed a trick. He chose 'I was abused as a child.' But this line is old hat when what he needed was new skirt. The former Welsh Secretary could find a sensi- ble, fawn-coloured one at Marks & Spencer in Cardiff and he would be instant- ly identifiable as the martyr he believes himself to be.
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