THE IMPROVED SITUATION IN THE BALKANS. T HE honorific reception of
Prince Ferdinand of Bul- garia and his Premier, M. Stambouloff, by the Court of Vienna, is of considerable political importance. Like the betrothal of the Prince to a connection of the Haps- burgs, the warning recently given to Servia, and many incidents in Roumania, it shows that the Austrian Court has definitely made up its mind to defend the existing situation in the Balkan Peninsula, and that, in fact, the broad shield of the Triple Alliance has now been extended between the small States and harm from their only enemy. M. Stambouloff, in his conversation with the correspondent of the Times—reported in the Times of Thursday—makes no secret of his conviction on this point. He declares that Russia cannot now pass through Roumania on her way to Bulgaria without fighting the army which relieved her from her position before Plevna, and also, as the correspondent hints, a much more powerful force,— that is, of course, the Austrian Army. King Charles of Roumania has his Army in perfect order, and in spite of Russian protests, has finished his• fortifications with their strongest defences all constructed so as to resist attack from the Russian side. A march through the Dobrudscha is impossible, as the Russians might be taken in flank, and Bulgaria, therefore, as a matter of fact, can be attacked only through the Black Sea by a sudden descent on Bourgas. The Russians have now a powerful fleet of transports in the Black Sea ; but they would hardly venture on so desperate a raid without being certain of English opinion ; and if they did, the means of resisting them appear to be ready prepared. M. Stambouloff asserts that Bulgaria could fight the Russians with two hundred thousand of her own trained men, all well equipped ; while it may be taken as certain that the Ottoman Army would, in such an event, support Bulgaria, the Sultan dreading so close a Russian approach to Constantinople. An attack on Servia by Russia is hardly to be dreaded, as she lies too far to the westward. And in fact, the situation, as described by M. Stambouloff, comes to this : Although the federation of the Balkans is as yet imperfect and incom- plete, an informal federation exists under the protection of the Austrian and Turkish Empires ; so that Russia, if she juVaded the Peninsula, would be resisted by two great fighting States and at least three of the Balkan States- liosnia, Roumania, and Bulgaria—which, together, would add to the great armies behind them three hundred thou- sand drilled men, As there will be, or should be, no break in this situation while the Triple Alliance lasts, it is quite Possible that all the Balkan States except one may enjoy ten, fifteen, or twenty years of peace, during which their armies will be still more thoroughly organised, and their wealth will be indefinitely increased. The King of Roumania is a Hohenzollern, and does not waste ; in Bosnia, M. Kallay is flow paying all expenses out of revenue; and the Bulgarians have ample funds for all they at present desire to do. Their peasantry are getting rich, and the taxes are paid with exemplary punctuality. This account sh n allows an imme se.advance towards stability in Eastern Europe ; but there are two weak places remaining still. One is the condition of Servia, where the Treasury is always in difficulties, and where the parties quarrel hotly with each other and with the regular Army, which remains, in a vague way, devoted to King Milan. It was recently believed that an explosion in Belgrade could not be avoided ; and even now it is doubtful whether the soldiers will not be provoked to use their arms. There is always, however, some trouble in Servia; and it must not be forgotten that next year the young King attains his majority, and the unsuccessful ad interim Constitution comes to an end, and that Austria has always the power of raising her tariffs, and so compelling the peasantry, who cannot live without the Austrian demand for their products, to keep the peace. The political parties, more- over, do not want to see an Austrian occupation ; and, in spite of their violent language, will probably wait to see what a new reign will do for them, and what they may hope from the strong Premier whom the young King's advisers will endeavour to select. The other weak place is Macedonia, which, though powerless for the moment, frets bitterly under its Turkish Pashas, and listens always to any agitators, especially Russian, who promise it any relief. The Province is unhappily an object of jealousy to three Powers—Greece hoping for half at least, Bulgaria intending to have a large slice, and the Austrian Emperor never forgetting that his road to the /Egean, should he ever be compelled to take it, lies through Macedonia. There is a tendency, therefore, to leave the Macedonians to their wretchedness, to be relieved only when the great war has been fought out ; but we do not quite see why a compromise is impossible. The Sultan, if guaranteed a large tribute for his own personal use, might consent to appoint a Christian Viceroy of Macedonia, not to be removed for say, ten years, and to govern in the main as the for, wish. Personally, he would gain instead of losing; no question of sovereignty would be raised ; and the Macedonians could no more rebel than they can now, while they would have far less inducement. The Macedonians, in fact, would await their future, what- ever it is to be, in peace instead of in misery ; while no claim to the ultimate right of ruling them would be settled prematurely. It is there that the flame will burst out some day if some arrangement is not made, the advance both of Bulgaria and Greece in civilisation driving the Bulgarians and Greeks of Macedonia half-crazy with thirst and envy ; and it is there that diplomacy ought to be able to establish some endurable modus vivendi to last till the fate of the Eastern Peninsula is settled by the sword, or till a federation of the Balkans can be organised strong enough to hold its own even against a first-rate Power.
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