• THE CHINESE IMBROGLIO. T HE situation in China is slowly
congealing, and as it congeals it becomes more definite and visible to distant eyes. The strength of the "Boxers," the character of their weapons, and their relation to the troops are still uncertain, but much is becoming clear. It is clear, for example, that the "Boxers" mean to effect a massacre of Europeans if they can, and that they are effecting a massacre of Chinese converts, killing them all impartially, whether Catholic or Protestant, English, French, or American. The English converts have suffered heavily ; the American converts are in such straits that the Govern- ment of Washington, though obviously anxious to keep out of the turmoil, has ordered marines from Manila to protect them ; and the French converts are so menaced that their Bishop has armed them all, brought them within the mission compound in Pekin, and ordered them to defend themselves and their missionaries with the rifle. No distinction is made in favour of any nationality, nor can any say that their enemies are spared while they themselves are given up to the spoiler. To be white is in "Boxer" eyes to be worthy of disembowelling. It is also clear that the Manchu grandees, with the Empress at their head, favour the "Boxers," probably from two motives, one being a desire to conciliate public opinion, which menaces the dynasty on account of the repeated concessions to foreign encroachment, and the other a desire to be able when the next demands are made to prove by unanswerable testi- mony that to comply would be to outrage a dangerous public sentiment. Generals who ventured to confront the "Boxers" have been openly rebuked. The "Boxers" themselves are declared to be misguided patriots. A Minister favourable to foreigners has been removed ; his successor is of the blackest type of Old Conservatives ; and four prominent officials well known for reactionary opinions have been added to the Supreme Council. And, more significant than all, orders were evidently sent to Tientsin to prevent the despatch of foreign troops to Pekin, orders which would have been successful but that the European officers resorted to force, and opened a path by a display of rifles. And lastly, it is clear that the statesmen of Europe, who are quite aware that a derelict' China might tempt them beyond their bearing, have resolved at whatever cost to keep China afloat. The huge galleon, however waterlogged, is not to be allowed to sink or to be plundered, but is to be kept upright, with her own flag flying and her own officers in at least nominal command, until the storm has passed away. Steps, there- fore, have been taken of the most decided kind. A com- bined force of two thousand marines—supposed by Anglo- Chinese, in their contempt for native valour, to be quite considerable—has been ordered to fight its way to Pekin, and on its arrival the Legations, already protected by marines and Maxims, will, it is stated, make in combina- tion some demand in the nature of an ultimatum, if not in the usual form of one. Whether the demand Will be the dismissal of unworthy Councillors, or the retirement of the Empress-Regent, or the restoration of the Emperor to his proper place in the Administration, or the appoint- ment for a time of a Lieutenant-General trusted by the Powers with orders to put the "Boxers" down summarily, is not yet decided, but it is decided that the Government of China is to be placed for the present under tutelage. Whether this plan will succeed it is impossible to fore- tell, but on the whole it is probably the wisest which could have been adopted. It may fail ; indeed, in any country but China it certainly would fail, for in no other country would the soldiers and the populace bear to see foreigners, supported by ludicrously inadequate forces, deciding in their own capital who should or should not rule their'country. If the Empress-Regent answered the demand by a peremptory refusal, or the " Boxers " and the mob broke into fury at its impudence, the imme- diate prospect would be very doubtful. The Times says that any appeal to force in China always produces submis- sion, but forgets in saying it that while water always yields to a swimmer it very often drowns him. There must be fifty thousand Chinese soldiers, sailors, armed guards, armed police, and private guards in Pekin ; and three thousand marines without a fortress, without a commis- sariat. and without homogeneity would be wretchedly placed if they were attacked by these, while the mob used hatchets, swords, bamboos, and the torch. The single permanent danger of Europeans in Asia—thoroughgoing, unsparing massacre—would be very near, and has occurred in other places under circumstances quite as favourable to Europe. Still, the effort from its very boldness, its cool defiance of all international conventions, may succeed, the Chinese magnates shrinking at the last moment from open conflict with the dreaded barbarians, and at all events it is hard to suggest an alternative plan of action which could have been adopted. To arrest the Empress- Regent might have cost ten thousand lives, and then have left power very much in the same hands. To proclaim the present Emperor would have been of no use unless the "Boxers," and the soldiers, and the mob were prepared to carry out his orders, and they certainly are not on the side of "reform." The Powers have no rival candidate of the Imperial haus° whom they could proclaim Emperor, and to dethrone the dynasty, and so excite civil war in every province of China, is more than self-respecting statesmen dare attempt. There was no time to collect more force, even Russian force, the object being to prevent a massacre by armed ruffians actually in and around Pekin. The plan adopted was therefore the best that could be tried, and it was acted on with a decision and energy which speak well for the power of self-effacement in all concerned, and which will multiply manifold the strength of the Europeans and their friends. It is will, decision, mad audacity, which succeeds in the East, and to all appearance those who direct the Europeans possess those qualities.
The grand difficulty, if massacre is averted, and the Palace is reduced in seeming to obedience, is to decide on the next step. The Powers cannot encamp permanently in Pekin. They cannot leave until they have established a Government prepared to respect all international obliga- tions and able to hold China together, and how are they to secure-one ? The Empress-Regent is by far the strongest person in China, but she is also the most dangerous one. If she is left in possession of the throne she may reign for ten years yet, and if she forgets or forgives the humiliation she will have received she will be very unlike any other adventuress who ever obtained control of the supreme power. She will punish Europe if she can, and meanwhile she will foster the reactionaries throughout the Empire. The Emperor has the advantage of • his legal claims to a quasi-supernatural position, but he is a weak young man bred in almost total seclusion, and incapable, as he has already proved, of controlling the fierce Manchu grandees, who intend to retain the ancient system in full force. Emperors who submit to be arrested and sent to bed are not of much value as friends in dangerous crises. He could • not govern unless he were strenuously and consistently supported either by one Great Power, which Europe will not permit, or by all Europe, which would in a few months be a condominium with a vengeance, something like the condominium which, with its soldiers fighting in the streets and its chiefs forming factions among the Roman nobles, sometimes in the Middle Ages'endeavoured to guide and to control the Papacy. The Powers cannot forget that if anarchy breaks out in China their object is defeated, or that if the Monarch moves his capital to the interior, say Shense, the ancient capital, their hold upon the central power vanishes at once. The only visible alternative is the one which no doubt has so often succeeded in the East, a competent Vizier or Mayor of the Palace ; but not to mention that the Chinese system leaves no place for such an officer, do the Ambassadors know of a Chinaman competent to fill such an office ? They may, and it is, we feel confident, in that direction that egress from the present impasse must be found ; but for the present the outlook is unusually gloomy. In brief, the greatest Empire in Asia is ruled by men whom Europe is aware it must not tolerate, yet for whom it can find or secure no trustworthy alternatives. And yet if it does not find or secure them the hideous calamity of China falling to pieces may within a few months be exciting the cupidity and overtaxing the capacity of all ruling- men. China in anarchy, whiph is the alternative to success in the present effort of Europe, may involve a series of wars of which no man can foresee the end.
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