`WAITING FOR GODOT' AT THE TREASURY INVESTMENT NOTES
By NICHOLAS DAVENPORT WAITING for Godot' would be a good title for the present economic policy of the Treasury. The trouble about 'Waiting for Godot' is that if you wait indefinitely you begin to forget exactly what you are waiting for. You just go on wait- ing. If one may cast Mr. Macmillan and Mr. Amory in the parts of the two endearing tramps in Beckett's
play one can imagine them discus- sing the elusive nature of the Godot of expansion Whose arrival they have been hoping for since 1955. The older one, who had been a disciple of KeYnes—a part which could be played brilliantly bY Mr. Macmillan—begins to complain bitterly of the boredom of waiting. It is getting chilly, he saYs, I feel a depression blowing in from the Atlantic. I am sure we ought to take some preven- tive action. We must have our umbrella plans ready for Godot's arrival. The younger one (a part to which Mr. Amory would bring great per- sonal charm) reproves him for his impatience. You have been reading Keynes or Harrod again, he says. I told you to pay no attention to those academic economists. If we take action too soon It will put off Godot's coming. Besides, it would look foolish to have our umbrellas up if it doesn't rain. But it has been raining in the sterling area, replies the other. Their exports have dropped badly in the last six months and if you had read the papers today you would have seen that our OW n exports to the United States were 13 per cent. down in April on the average of the first three months. Wrong interpretation, says the other. One swallow does not make a summer and one month's drop does not make a slump. If we have to wait for Godot—aren't we all agreed that we have to wait for Godot?—we must not depress ourselves by looking at all this stunted growth around us : we must tell each other that we are fortifying the body economic and growing strong. How can we fortify the body economic, growls the older man, When you deliberately cut down my investment medicine? Godot would never stand for that.
At this point an angry discussion breaks out as to what is really stopping Godot's arrival. The Younger one declares that it is because Godot is scared of the inflationary antics indulged in by the older one's friends from the trade unions. A lot of your bus friends, he says, came the other day, playing games and leap-frogging over one another and when Godot heard about it he was very upset and said that he would never come near us again. Nonsense, says the other, I told the busmen to go away because I was having a serious discussion with the railwaymen who are a very decent lot and I know Godot will not mind Playing trains—diesel or electric—with the rail- waymen if they stay to have cold supper with us. BY the way, what sort of cold supper have we got to offer them? Nothing really, replies the Other, until October, but half a loaf perhaps in July. It will be very stale by then, the old man replies. Oh! I do wish Godot would come. I have told everyone he is coming soon. He can't be very far off. Let's go and get him.
Wait a minute, says the younger and more cautious one. Godot promised to come when Ike sent a message. We must wait for the message. What message? The message about the American slump. When Ike says the word, Godot will show UP. But what word? The word '1930: When Ike says the slump is another 1930, Godot will jump to it. But how does Ike know when the slump is another 1930? He doesn't, but he will do what he is told and he will be told to cut taxes when it is another 1930. But why doesn't he cut taxes now to prevent another 1930? Because they tell him it isn't a 1930; they tell him that the Government is pumping in as much money as private enter- prise is withdrawing. Then why is there a slump? Because the people have turned against their motor-cars and won't buy any and because the motor-car makers have turned against Mr. Reuther, the union boss, and won't stomach his big talk. So they want a slump? They don't want a 1930 slump. You mean they want a 1958 slump? Perhaps—until boss Reuther changes his tune. They know they can always stop a slump at any time when they cut taxes. But you say they don't want to cut taxes? Well, those quibbling academic economists you quote so much, they want to cut taxes, but the hard-money bankers, they don't— because the Budget is already unbalanced $3 bil- lion. Billions! Who is using inexact words now? You mean $3,000 million. All right—$3,000 mil- lion. The bankers say that if they cut taxes the Budget will be unbalanced $10,000 million and that's inflation again. But hasn't Ike told them that the Budget is unbalanced because the slump has reduced revenues and if they cut taxes and end the slump, then the Budget won't be unbalanced very long? Don't be silly : Ike doesn't know all that. But he will do what the bankers tell him. You mean he will never cut taxes? And Ike will never send a message? And Godot will never turn up? I never said Godot will never turn up. But we mustn't provoke him. We must go on waiting. For what?
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