The Condition of Euro e
THERE no mistaking the sense of alarm in the world, and the cause of it is manifest enough. Exaggeration is to be avoided, as it is not being every- where. If to some observers the situation is reminiscent of 1914 it can only be because they are comparing super- ficial manifestations and overlooking fundamental differ- ences in the essential factors of the case. Germany, for example, which is the spring and origin of the alarms of to-day, had in 1914 by far the most powerful army in Europe and the most powerful fleet but one. There may be room for some difference of opinion regarding the present state of Germany's armaments, but no sane man believes she is capable of taking 'the field against such a country as France. Neither, for all the doubt that may prevail regarding Italy's theoretical sympathies, is there the smallest ground for supposing that any Great Power in Europe would support Germany in any breach of the peace. It is a canon of Italian statesmanship not to run counter, except in lesser matters, to the policy of Great Britain. To encourage talk of a European war is to abandon all right sense of proportion and to create precisely the atmosphere in which peace becomes hardest to preserve.
But when all that is said it remains true that the situa- tion in Europe is more profoundly disturbing than it has been at any time since the invasion of the Ruhr. The main source of apprehension is Germany, where the logical sequel to the assumption of power by Herr Hitler would be the development of a foreign policy which would make the maintenance of peace impossible. But events do not always have logical sequels. The German Foreign Office is in the sober hands of Baron von Neurath, and what is to be feared is not a considered policy of provocation, but some frontier incident in east or west that might prove a sufficiently potent spark to start a blaze. Out- side Germany the situation in Austria, where Nazis may gain control at any moment, would arouse serious enough concern if it were not overshadowed by the greater alarms next door. Jugoslavia is rent by internal dissensions which may encourage-the King-Dictator at any moment to seek relief from domestic anxieties in external excur- sions. Poland, not unreasonably apprehensive of the dangers a a Nazi attack, is putting herself under special discipline, though the latest-Danzig dispute, never quite as serious as the propagandists on both sides suggested, has fortunately been quickly settled at Geneva. Other negotiations .at. Geneva. have developed less. propitiously. The Disarmament Conference deadlock continues, _and the prospect that Germany, failing to see the promise of general disarmament given her at Versailles honoured, will deliberately and systematically re-arm is now less a fear than a certainty. That is the situation in Europe. Of the situation in Asia, with which the League is still grappling, and the situation in America nothing need be said here. They are familiar to every newspaper-reader.
Such is the -world we live in. . - - Two factors in the situation may be decisive. One, to which so far too little attention has been paid, is the attitude of Signor Mussolini. In view of the obvious affinity between Fascism. in. Italy and Hitlerism in Germany, and a certain well-recognized identity of policy between the two countries in the European arena, open discouragement by. the Italian leader of any external adventures on the part of the new, rulers of Germany would have decisive effect. There is every reason to believe that Signor Mussolini is as concerned with the preservation of peace in Europe as any other statesman of the Continent. The resolution of the Fascist Grand Council last week and the announcement of a further reduction in Italy's military estimates more recently still are good evidence of that. Any public reminder by him at this juncture that the signa- tories of the Kellogg Pact are pledged to refrain from the use of armed force, and that all signatories of the Pact and the Covenant must stand together to vindicate those agreements, would be of immense value. it is extremely _good news that a meeting between Mr. MacDonald and Signor Mussolini has been -arranged and it must be earnestly hoped that out of it may come such joint or separate declaration as this, together, it may be hoped further, with an assimilation of British and Italian policy in the matter of disarmament. Italy, it is worth remembering, has gone further than our own Government ever has in that field.
The other factor of decisive importance is, of course, the development of the internal situation in Germany. Herr Hitler is definitely established, the communal elections on Sunday having put the Nazis in power in xnost of the municipalities throughout Germany as well as in the Prussian State Council and the Federal Council. Of the methods by which the party has secured office nothing more need be said here. On the other hand, not a word of what has been said in these cohunns already on that subject can be retracted. Quite the contrary. All the increasing evidence avail- able points to the conclusions we have already recorded. That, however, may be left. The question, as we said a week ago, is what use Herr Hitler will make of the power that is now his. It is uncertain yet whether he proposes to defer so far as possible to constitutional forms or to disregard the constitution altogether. He has his clear majority in the Reichstag, but to obtain the two-thirds necessary for the amendment of the Weimar Constitution he needs the support of the Centre Party, and that_ support will only be accorded on con- ditions—conditions which, of course, would impose a sharp restraint on the wilder spirits among the Chan- cellor's own followers. Whether, those spirits can be kept in check in any case is doubtful. Herr Hitler himself shows some signs of listening. to the more responsible members of his Cabinet, such as the Foreign and Finance Ministeis. Captain Goring shows few, signs of listening to anyone. He. was engaged last Sunday in inciting to persecution and riot at the very moment when his leader, was appealing for rigid discipline and restraint. His ambition is great .and,. he is likely to stick at little in the attempt to gratify it.. If he and Dr. Goebbels, whose office it now is to control the pre- sentation of facts by manipulation of the press, the theatres, the films and the wireless in the interests of the Nazi Party, are to be the effective influences in. the Government then the prospect is sombre indeed.
Herr Hitler- may have to choose between such counsellors at one extreme and his Nationalist allies on the other flank. The Nationalists are obviously, per- turbed at -the various Nazi- excesses, and -provocative though their own demeanour has often been particularly in the region of the Eastern frontier, they lend a certain element of stability to the present administration, -The outlook in Germany is gravely menacing, ,not the least disturbing. factor being the manifest resolve of. almost all parties to put Germany on a level with the rest of.Etuope in the matter of armaments.. For that situation, as-for much else in the temper of the German people- to-day, the policy of Germany's . former enemies An the past dozen years has . been largely responsible. That has to be recognized. Recognition of it may well induce a different attitude on the part of the Powers concerned. It has indeed induced it visibly in the ease of France, which is represented to-day by a Government far more reasonable than has held office in that country for years. It is a tragedy that, at the moment when France is openly conciliatory, Germany should be hardly less openly provocative. Herr Hitler, unfortunately, like Signor Mussolini ten years ago, is compelled in his own interests to foment a spirit of aggressive nationalism fundamentally alien to the spirit of internationalism, which alone can establish"concord in Europe. To meet German menaces, both spoken •and unspoken, by anything like a new Anglo-French entente would be the Profoundest mistake, if only for the effect it would inevitably have upon Italy. The true bulwark against threats of aggression in any quarter is the League of Nations, and it is through the League of Nations that Great Britain, France and Italy, and other Powers, with the United States if possible associated with them, should make it clear that they will on the one hand resist any deliberate violation of contractual obligations, and on the other consider fairly any modifications of such treaties that equity and justice may dictate. Whether Herr Hitler, in fact, Contemplates the steps he is rumoured to Le contem- plating is still uncertain. If he is, his action, in so far as it involved the use of force in violation of pledges, would be a matter of concern to all Europe, and no effort should be spared to mobilize all Europe in condemnation of it through the League.
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