Not dead yet
From Mr Victor Black Sir: Andrew Gimson (The Tories are finished', 10 November) is too hasty in writing off the Tories. I have watched British general elections closely since 1945 (when I was just leaving school) and have observed a fairly clear pattern.
In politics, as in war and many other activities, timing is vital. There seem to be periods when the electorate tire or become disenchanted with the government of the day. If there is an election before that, the government is 'given another chance' (e.g., Attlee in 1950, Wilson in 1965 and Major in 1992).
It is only when there is a real wish for change that the opposition can win, and this does not depend on a better manifesto but a general feeling that change is needed (Things can only get better').
With the temporary exception of the present military conflict, the government is quite well advanced in the process of turning off the electorate. Another three years of hospital chaos, teacher shortages, railway problems no longer blamed on the Tories and, above all, a cynicism about all government statements will do the job nicely for the Tories.
Victor Black
Coln Rogers, Gloucestershire
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