The American . Presidential Campaign
BY S. K. RATCLIFFE r[IHE national conventions of the two great American parties are meeting in Chicago this month in circumstances altogether unprecedented. The United States confronts an industrial and financial crisis of extreme gravity, and all instructed Americans are aware that their country's troubles cannot be separated from the troubles of the wider world. But neither the Republican delegates, who are now dispersing, nor the Democratic delegates who assemble at the end of June, can be expected to concern themselves with the great international issues of the hour. They must work, or fight, within the rigid limits of the American political scheme, and their task is defined for them. It is to Choose the candidates for the Presidency, and to frame the party platforms with as large an avoidance of definite commitments as possible. As in 1924 and 1928, the Republicans meet in the knowledge that they will Vote without an alternative ; and as on every quadrennial occasion since 1920, the Democrats know that their ranks are torn with dissension and their chances of effective agreement remote.
Mr. Hoover is again the choice of the Republican Party. The decision is virtually dictated by the practice of re-nominating the President in office, and to-day, notwithstanding the unpopularity incurred by Mr. Hoover on account of the depression, there is no Republican politician who could be named in rivalry -with him. Since the Roosevelt-Wilson epoch the American system has not been favourable to the emergence of political leaders of national standing, and it is well understood that the Republicans would not be able, if called upon, to nominate a substitute for Mr. Hoover, who, it is curious now to recall, was com- mended four years ago mainly because he was an administrator and an expert, and not a politician.
Since there is on the Republican side no personal question to settle, it is obvious that for the American public in general the interest of the Democratic con- vention must be far greater. There are two chief reasons for -this. The first is, that by all the known political signs 1932 should be a Democratic year. For eight years the Republicans held the governing position as the party of prosperity. A national election falling within " the year of despair," as it is called by an able writer in the Round Table, should properly bring their defeat, and until the end of last winter their opponents were abounding in confidence. They held that in the November contest Mr. Hoover would go down before " any Democrat," while the evidence from all parts of the country showed the tide to be running strongly in favour of Mr. Franklin D. Roosevelt as the fortunate champion. He is widely popular ; his name is an 'undeniable asset ; his public record is good, and he has the decided advantage at the present stage of being an anti-Prohibitionist who escapes the odium from which an extreme Wet cannot detach himself.
It is recognized, however, that during the past three months the political horizon has altered, and that on the Democratic side the problem of the candidate and the
party leadership in the campaign has taken on a com- plexity which was not visible when the name of Governor Roosevelt was first put forward. There had been no disturbing movement from Mr. Alfred E. Smith, the predecessor of Mr. Roosevelt in the governorship of New York. It was at that time assumed that his crushing defeat by Mr. Hoover in 1928 had put an end to " Al " Smith's remarkable political career. He could not again be a candidate, and there was no reason for thinking that he would re-enter national politics for the purpose of preventing the nomination's going to the man who had been his most valuable supporter four years ago. But this is what has since occurred. The Democrats in convention are governed by a rule which makes necessary a two- thirds majority for the candidate, and it is now being confidently asserted that Governor Roosevelt has been effectually stopped. " Al " Smith as politician is far more skilful and picturesque, and, knowing himself to be out of the running, he has no need of evasions when it comes to any matter of acute controversy-7-witness his downright declaration in favour of the wiping out of War debts. Governor Roosevelt, moreover, has difficulties to overcome other than those made by " Al " Smith. His connexion with New York City tells against him in opposite ways : he has suffered in public esteem through his reluctance to strike at Tammany after the shocking disclosures of judicial and civic corruption, while with Tammany against him he cannot hope to carry New York. He is not approved by the dominant business interests of the Eastern States, without whose support he could not gain the Presidency ; and he is hampered by a physical disability which, though greatly diminished by an heroic effort since he entered public life, cannot but be serious in the case of a candidate for the position which has become the most onerous elective office in the world. Governor Roosevelt is undoubtedly still the strongest aspirant to the Democratic nomination, but it is probable enough that he may fall short of the two-thirds vote. In that event the field will be entirely open and the choice fall upon any one of four or five dark horses, ranging from Governor Ritchie of Maryland to Mr. Newton D. Baker, of Ohio.
It remains to say a word upon the campaign issues, -which in America commonly fall outside the party plat- forms. In 1932 the overpowering issue is the depression, upon which alone, however unjustly, President Hoover and his Administration may be judged. But it cannot be denied that the swift series of events connected with Prohibition has brought an astonishing change of scene, especially for the President and the Republican party managers. Mr. Hoover is the Dry candidate, and he cannot personally change sides during the convention. But he can, and presumably will,. accept a new plank, declaring for a re-submission of the Eighteenth Amend- ment to the electorate. Beyond that the Democrats cannot go. The party conventions arc soaking wet ; the campaign will display the anti-prohibitionists in full offensive, but even so repeal will be a long way off.
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