THE POSITION OF THE LEGITIMISTS.
[FROM OUR SPECIAL CORRESPONDENT.]
THE uncertainties of which we spoke in our last letter in reference to M. de Lavalette's journey are still rife. The ministers have held several cabinet councils. Id. Thouvenel insisted on the necessity of recalling M. de Goyon. He proposed a plan concerted with M. de Lavalette, according to which the evacuation of Rome would be effected at the expiration of a term of three years. These proposi- tions came to nothing. We indicated as a probable solution the maintenance of the ambassador and of the general in their respective posts, and the persistence of the Government in the policy of the status quo. We are more than ever led to believe that we were right. As for the report spread abroad during the last few days, that M. de Lavalette would be sent to replace M. de Flahault as English am- bassador, we see no grounds hitherto for giving credit to it. These solutions, which consist in solving nothing, are indeed thoroughly in the nature of things. It is certain that to the very last the Emperor will do his best to keep up the appearance in the eyes of the Conservative party of having his " hand forced" in the affairs of Italy, while at the same time his boast to the Italians will be that alone, and against all the world, he confirmed the establishment of their independence and national unity. He counts, moreover, on time, the great solvent of difficulties, and on the march of events, to extricate himself from the complications in which he has immeshed himself. Should the consolidation of Italy meet with any serious check, he holds in reserve for the new phase his old programme of Villafranca. Should the Pope die he will throw his weight into the Conclave, and obtain the election of. a more tractable successor. Events may arise in Hungary, in the East, even in Mexico, if we are to believe the hangers-on- of the Tuileries, which will influence the attitude of Austria. Unforeseen contingencies, which have often so well served Napoleon iLl., may once again relieve him from his per- plexity. I am persuaded that his whole policy is made up of similar shifts. It is necessary, however, for the sake of accuracy, to lay some stress upon one aspect of the ease which is not without impor- tance. The Emperor knows wonderfully well that the Italian ques- tion, so long as it remains pending, will continue to be a leaven of discord between the diverse fractions of the Opposition, and a con- siderable obstacle to the union of his adversaries in any common action against his Government. This is one reason, and assuredly a most potent reason so far as he is concerned, why lie should adjourn as long as he possibly can the settlement of Italian affairs. We have already had occasion to observe that the principal, not to say the only and sole force of the Empire, lies in that division of the parties, and the uncertainty of the morrow. Not only are the parties divided from one another by radical sources of opposition and hatred, but in their present state of disorganization not one of them would be in a condition to take up the succession of the Empire should it fall vacant to-day. We regard as a calamity anything which would aggravate these divisions ; so much so, indeed, that if we could attach any foundation to it, we should view with serious alarm the news recently circulated in Legitimist circles of the pretended pregnancy of the Comtesse de Chambord, announced by the German papers. Nothing seems to us less probable, and our readers will share our incredulity, when we remind them that Madame In Comtesse de Chambord is forty-five years of age, and has been married these fifteen years. But if the fact were true, it would, in our opinion, in- volve the most serious consequences. Your readers are aware of the efforts made during the Republic and the first period of the Empire to bring about an alliance be- tween the two branches of the .House of Bourbon. The Count de Chambord was asked to accept loyally the constitutional programme of the House of Orleans, and the family. of Orleans were invited to recognize in the Count de Chambord the chief of the royal family of France. It is well known what was the fate of a com- bination, well received at first by public opinion, which saw in it a future pledge for the Conservative interests, and which ap- plauded the absorption of two hostile factions in one great mo- narchical and constitutional party. The situation, now, is very different. The reaction which has arisen against the Empire is before all else a Liberal reaction, and differs in this from the Conservative reaction of 1850, that it does not bring back
men's minds to the thought of a Legitimist or quasi-Legitimist re- action. The Legitimist party, the conduct of which has slipped entirely out of the hands of the men who had figured at its head during the parliamentary period, to pass into those of a few obscure partizans of the antiquated doctrine of divine right, loses every day some of the territory it had conquered. The tide of opinion is drifting more and more towards the Princes of Orleans, whose personal tendencies respond to the instinct of the middle classes, and the partizans of whom rank among the foremost de- fenders of the liberal cause. We think we are warranted when we add that the most eminent and honourable men of the re- publican party would accept without difficulty the advent of a constitutional monarchy as it is conceived by the Orleanist party, and would be content to swell the ranks of the dynastic opposition. The following significant remark is attributed to one of them : "Now we mint either go to Claremont or to the Palais Royal. We have only to choose." But if the Legitimist party is not in a position at present to aspire to the succession of the Empire, it is, never- theless, still in existence. It numbers in its ranks many wealthy landowners, a certain number of brave and ardent young men, the entire population of certain cities in the south, a fraction of the clergy alienated from the Empire and restored to the Legitimist interest by the influence of recent events. These forces and influ- ences are, doubtless, we think, inadequate to found anything, but all sufficient to shackle the gait of a free government, by using as a weapon of offence the very liberty such a government would confer upon the country. If this power is not to be feared, it is because the existence of the Legitimist party is limited at present to the life of a single man. But if M. le Comte de Chambord should have a son, the result would be, that, on the one hand, the energy of the Legitimist party would be revived, and, on the other, that any harmony with the Princes of Orleans would be impossible. And if events should bring M. le Comte de Paris sooner or later to fill the constitutional throne of France, we firmly believe that the opposition of the Legitimists united to that of the advanced democrats and the remnants of Bonapartism would render the establishment of his throne hopeless.
Should it then be true that Madame la Comtesse de Chambord is pregnant, as it is pretended, and were she to give an heir to the elder branch, the news might very well give joy to a few faithful servants of the ancient royalty, whose devotion we may honour, and excuse their grudges; but the Empire alone would profit by such an event, and we, for our part, should see in it a more favourable chancre to the dynasty of the Bonapartes than to that of the Bourbons.
The excitement of the youth of the schools is far from abating. The democratic journals of the Quartier Latin, the 24-avail and the Mouvement, have been suppressed. Several of the editors have been condemned to imprisonment and placed under the ban of the law of general safety. Some of them had been acquitted by the first judges. The minister interposed an appeal against them on the part of the Government. The furious zeal of the Government against these youths of twenty has something odious in it, but the odious element is mingled with the grotesque. They pounced on a letter in the rooms of one of the compromised students in which was the name of a woman. The judge ()age d'instruction; harassed the young man with questions to know if the name of Elise was not a concerted expression between the affiliates of a secret society to designate the Republic, or perhaps the seditious song, "The Lion of the Latin Quarter." It is hardly necessary to add that the rigours of the administration and the law courts against the students who have been arrested have only added to the general irritation. The students promise themselves an energetic manifestation at the first represen- tation of the Volontairee de 1814, shortly to be brought out at the theatre of the Porte St. Martin. This piece, as you know, has been composed by the secretary of the Emperor, M. Mocquard, to order, for the purpose of exciting in the masses the old passions of the . Imperialist democracy, and of the chauvinisme of 1820. But these .passions, which have a lingering echo in the suburbs, have none m the Quartier Latin. The students will protest with their whistles against the traffic in the popular instincts for the profit of military despotism. Not a little curious is it that a tolerable number of young men of the aristocratic families of the Faubourg St. Ger- main, who lately came to blows with the police on the occasion of a theatrical quarrel very foreign to politics, propose to have their revenge in chorus with the dramatic whistles of the Latin Quarter.
The Commission on the budget continues its discussion of M. Yould's project. This project, which, as we have said, raised among the public a lively opposition, does not seem to have met with more favour in the bosom of the Commission. Is it to intimidate the op- ponents that the Government is again propagating the rumour of an impending dissolution, and of a general election for the month of November next ? Whatever may be its object, a sincere reduction of the budget has been demanded on the war and naval budgets. The tax on salt has been keenly combated. M. Gouin who reported on the project of the conversion, a personal friend of id. Foubl, has called for the suppression of the Ministry of State (Ministere d'Etal), which would lead one to believe that the disagreements between M. Fould and M. Walewski are far from being allayed. In the midst of various and conflicting propositions made by the members of the Commission, leading to no practical result, what stands out in relief is an extreme dissatisfaction provoked by the bad administration of the public wealth. This dissatisfaction will cer- tainly get abroad. We attach great importance to these testimonies of disaffection and of disapprobation given by men who have been the support of the actual government, but who begin to take alarm at the consequences of the policy they have served. It is an excellent index of the state of opinion — a menace for the Em- pire. Perhaps it is necessary, and it agrees with the feeling of many politicians, that the blow should arise from that quarter. A few days ago a man who played a great part under the Government of July expressed this thought in a drawing-room under a picturesque form : "The conflagration must not come from without. The fire must break out inside the house. After that, the country will call us, as the firemen are called for. We shall put out the fire, and throw the
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