CHESS
Magic numbers
Raymond Keene
Periodically, I give an explanation of the Eleusinian mysteries of the Elo Sys- tem, and much of what follows is quoted from the stat freaks' bible, The Rating of Chessplayers, Past and Present (B. T. Batsford) by Professor Arpad Elo, the inventor of the international rating system. He explained the various categories of chess strength in this fashion: Above 2600, world championship con- tenders; 2400-2600, most Grandmasters and International Masters; 2200-2400, most national masters; 2000-2200, candi- date masters, experts; 1800-2000, amateurs class A category 1; 1600-1800, amateurs class B category 2; 1400-1600, amateurs class C category 3; 1200-1400, amateurs class D category 4; below 1200, novices.
Personal circumstances interrupted two of the most promising careers of all chess history at a point well in advance of their normal peak. Bobby Fischer's rating had shot into the 2500s before he was 17; by 22 he had reached 2700. At the age of 29, Fischer in 1972 had won the world cham- pionship and pushed his rating to 2780, higher than any other player, living or dead. Paul Morphy and Robert Fischer were born approximately a century apart. Data for Morphy stop at age 22 (when he gave up competitive chess) and for Fischer at 29. If the two are compared at age 22, the ratings are almost identical, leaving the nagging question of whether Morphy, given comparable activity and opposition, could have equalled Fischer's performance levels. The other nagging question is what might they both have achieved had they continued to play.
The Elo list only began to be published in 1970, and Fischer's figures were: (1970) 2720; (1971) 2760; (1972) 2785; (1973) 2780. The final figure included his epic match with Spassky, but then Fischer just stopped playing.
The comparative figures for Kasparov and Karpov over the past five years are of particular interest. Karpov twice reached a personal peak of 2725 before 1983, but in the period under examination he has stayed firmly between 2700 and 2720. Kasparov has shot up from 2640 to 2740 and may well be improving at a faster rate than Fischer himself. Now just 23, he is certainly performing better than Fischer at a comparable age.
This graph shows their ratings since 1982:
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